Welcome to The Profits preview for New Year’s Day at Flemington on 1 January 2018. The rail moves from the 3m position to 6m on a track that is expected to be a Good 3 for most of the day. Expect a fair track with split favour to those in front half of the field, but tempo will be the decider in a load of these races. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – So Far Sokool – 5 units @ $4.00 to win
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 – Just Hifalutin – 2 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.00
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 7 – My Psychiatrist – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.62
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 8, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – New Year Plate – 2YOs
1. Carnina: Two very solid trials then failed to fire first up at Rosehill.
2. Crossing the Abbey: Looked a very strong 4th last prep down the Flemington straight. We know this horse will handle the straight again and looks well suited here.
3. Dark Confidant: Trialed well heading into this but was 3X the price of the Hayes runner in the markets at Sandown and that horse didn’t show much.
4. Graceful Star: 4th first up at Moonee Valley in an average 2YO race last start. Needs to improve.
5. Khulaasa: No public trials. D Oliver onboard Hayes runner. Has been backed into favourite.
6. La Celestina: No public trials. Well bred type for a good stable with a top jock onboard. Respect.
7. Mirette: Another with no public trials. Not as convinced by this stable first up with a 2YO as others.
Comments: Obviously hard race to get involved in. Crossing the Abbey did enough last prep to suggest a big win here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Crossing the Abbey to win
Flemington Race 2 – 1400m – Straight Draw Handicap – BM-78
1. Nikitas: Easy winner last start as favourite at Morphetville. Stuck on strongly and can run a nice race here. Just not convinced the horse is well weighted is the issue.
2. Wise Hero: Beaten 0.1L last two starts in a row. Murphy’s Reward isn’t exactly the form line you want to be heading into this with… but this is a good horse presenting well in the yards. Step up to 1400m a little strange from 1000m.
3. Ballet Master: Failed to fire last start – very plain run. Hard to have on current form.
4. Willi Willi: Solid enough run first up 2nd to Amadeus but a few queries over the form out of that race. Needs to improve here today.
5. Just Hifalutin: Five runs this prep and has been performing better than ever before. Flew home last start from a horrible position and just missed. Maps really well today midfield.
6. Greviste: 3YO Handicap winner over 1600m at course in very fast time. Best when it’s run along.
7. Creativity: Flew home last start at Caulfield over the 1100m and steps up to 1400m here where based on previous starts the horse should go well but for mine is a query.
9. Indian Thunder: Recorded a strong final sectional flying home at Morpehtville last start. Steps up to 1400m but unproven off a stronger tempo if it occurs here.
10. King Kohei: Couldn’t place at Seymour last start. No.
Comments: This is a very strong race with several key chances. Wise Hero and Ballet Master are expected to lead them along and I just can’t see any pace angles in the race to where we will have more than an average tempo set early. Willi Willi and Indian Thunder are both well under the correct odds today and even Creativity is a massive query stepping up here. Wise Hero should be suited with no speed on and the step up but once again, hard to know. I’ve rated Just Hifalutin the clear favourite here from a 1 out 3 back position in run.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Just Hifalutin – 2 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$2.00
Flemington Race 3 – 2000m – Byron Moore Handicap
1. Articus: Continues to run well this prep without a win on the board. Top weights again. Could just be too good for these if speed is on?
2. Second Bullet: Average run first up off a freshen-up at Werribee fairly beaten 3L by Articus.
3. Shoreham: Up to 2000m today off a win last start at Caulfield. Has to improve but clearly going well.
4. Al Haram: Stepping up in distance here. Poor to average at best first up over 1800m on Heavy 9. Back to dryer suits but best over further.
5. Golden Mane: Ran a very nice race last start when looked well in the yard and well suited here with speed on. Can run a big race.
6. O’lonera: A huge unknown here coming off a very easy run and win last start at Pakenham when they didn’t go fast at all early and was able to control the race late. Obviously well enough but testing material here.
7. Straight Jacket: Speed was on throughout last start at Moonee Valley and he managed to stick on and keep going through the line for the win. This is a harder task with some decent horses behind but he will run well.
8. The Mighty Jrod: Horribly outclassed here. Can’t run the sectionals required.
Comments: Interesting race on paper. The Mighty Jrod based on last run won’t be pushing tempo so Straight Jacket will have to push it along. I’m not convinced Straight Jacket has the closing speed to hold these off. Articus looks the main horse here on paper.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Articus to win
Flemington Race 4 – 2000m – Summer Racing Handicap – BM-70
1. Eureka Street: Looked a top type last prep but two runs this prep has yet to show alot. Third up would expect the horse to be improving but last prep took 5 runs.
2. Dubai King: Well beaten last start at Moonee Valley. Stays at this grade needs to improve.
3. Macrobius: Average at best the two runs this prep. Struggle to suggest on recent runs but best in past is good enough.
4. Last Week: Strong win last start at Moonee Valley seeing out a very strong tempo. Looks well suited staying at this distance and in this grade.
5. Tuff Bickie: Strong win last start in a CL1. Big jump in class though back to BM-70 grade where has failed the past two starts before. Dry form is good enough.
6. Young Hostess: BM-64 winner last start at Geelong over 1750m and steps back up to 2000m where we know she will handle it. Big increase.
7. Fine Embers: 9 runs this prep yet to score a win so struggle to suggest in this grade.
9. Raindrops on Roses: Mornington winner last start. Won just 3 from 22 and this is as high a grade as she has measured up to but personal best is good enough here.
10. Shanghai Patrol: Strong run last start off a hot speed at Moonee Valley and will have him well in here. Over the top late.
11. Wildwood Court: seven runs this prep and yet to break through for a win. Last win was in BM-64. Hard to see in this grade.
12. Sea Spirit: Two runs this prep. First up failed to fire and then last start couldn’t get close to Hell on Earth. hard to suggest.
13. Toan Thang: Nice run 2nd to Netherfield two back and then failed as favourite at Cranny last start.
14. Eaton: Ok type. Took a while to break through in 2Y+MSW grade then failed to get the win in CL1.
15. Civil Disobedience: Bm-64 winner last start. Looked a nice type the past three runs but clearly more needed here.
Comments: Last Week is a good type of horse on the way up but only holds the 10th best personal best of any runner here today. Civil Disobedience has the 11th best and is in the same boat, yet they lead the betting here as favourites. The money for Eureka Street suggests the horse is ready to finally fire while Shangani Patrol can repeat the last start efforts at odds.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Eurkea Street to win. Also bet Shangani Patrol.
Flemington Race 5 – 1700m – Red Tempo Handicap – BM-70
2. Krusty: Three runs this prep. Last start run failed to get past 6 other races in easier than this. Needs to improve.
3. Bedford: CL1 winner last start. Steps up in grade here again but clearly good enough.
4. Reset Me I’m Wild: Laming runner. Hasn’t won the past two starts but fairly beaten by a nice type last start in a close finish. Can improve.
5. Yulong Sheng Long: 1600m winner last start at Cranbourne when presented really well in the yard. Will be near top again and well in here. Barrier the issue.
6. Silent General: Lightly raced type. Blocked for run at the 400m last start and just missed at moonee Valley. Looks the type to be suited here.
7. Parallel World: Strong winner at Pakenham. Back to dryer but can keep going on with it.
8. Rapido Chaparro: Mornington winner first up. Big jump in class but Waterhouse yard so can’t be upset.
9. Shrouded in Mist: 4.5L winner last start in maiden class. Massive step up but clearly has ability.
10. All of Me: Maiden winner. Failed to get close last start at Moonee Valley and bad barrier here.
11. Lu Bu: Maiden winner at Kilmore. Big step up again.
12. Mr Money Bags: Maiden winner at Sandown. Times were sound but even so this is another step up in grade required.
13. Barney Allen: Couldn’t win a BM-64 grade race this prep.. take on.
14. Cavalero: Bm-64 3rd last start behind Yulong Sheng Long.
15. Found Out: Ran very well last start 3rd at Caulfield and is expected to run very well here again today. Can improve and great barrier.
16. My Bad: Two runs this prep and well below this class on runs.
17. Raymax: Maiden winner coming into this. Clearly has to improve.
Comments: One of the hardest races of the day. Have to go with Silent General on top.
Confidence 30%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 12
Strategy: Silent General E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Standish Handicap
1. Lord of the Sky: Two runs last prep and both disappointed. Last time Oliver hopped on this horse he won at odds in WFA-G3 company.
2. Tshahitsi: Loves this track and goes well first up. Best runs in the past have been over 1400m though not 1200m which is the issue today.
3. Flippant: Last win which was back in 2016 was at course and distance in a hot race. Clearly targeted at this race today and looks well suited if can produce well.
4. Chaomis Road: Consistent type of horse. 1400m back to 1200m today. Can run well here no doubt but query if he is good enough to beat the lot.
5. Double Bluff: 2000m back to 1200m. Gotta love Robbie Laing.
6. Setinum: First up run failed to fire. Hard to suggest here up in grade.
7. Diamond Oasis: Old mate hasn’t won since 2015. Going fine but not well enough to win this.
8. Adirondack: Not at this distance in this grade.
9. Miss Wonderland: Strong return from injury last start but big jump in class here and has to run a career peak.
10. Hokkaido: Moe winner three back. Struggle to see here.
11. Toy Boy: Impressive improver who keeps running great races. Epic Moment has franked the form since. Has the turn of foot to run them all down late.
12. I’m Telling Ya: Goes very well at course and distance. Last two runs very poor.
13. Search Squad: Goes okay enough but not in this.
Comments: Expect Lord of the Sky could surprise at odds. Tshahitsi looks unders at the 1200m. Flipant could obviously win this… while I think Miss Wonderland is well under the odds. Toy Boy looks the one to beat sitting off them coming over the top late.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 11
Strategy: Toy Boy to win
Flemington Race 7 – 2800m – Bagot Handicap
1. Like a Carousel: Got the win last stat at Pakenham in a not overly highly rating Cup. Top weight here has to improve again.
2. Imperial Aviator: Failed heavily as $2.50 favourite last start at Moonee Valley. Clearly has to have had something go wrong. Blinkers on.
3. Dandy Gent: Speed was on last start and Dandy Gent was well backed the past two starts and got the chocolates. Where is the speed today?
4. Ormito: Looks to be finally at complete top but still just missed the win last start. Needs to find a turn of foot here.
5. Darabad: Looks the only potential pace angle on in the race. Doubt they will repeat the Sandown Cup.
6. Etah James: Got away with murder on speed last start and saved a load of ground railing through. Personally feel the horse got away with a win last start and have to take it on here.
7. My Psychiatrist: Covered 15 metres more than Etah Jones two back. Last start had to contend with a 14L below benchmark early speed. Still ran a blinding race. Can go one better here.
8. Parthesia: Disappointing run last start at Penshurst as favourite fairly beaten. Two back run wasn’t terrible but clearly needs to improve onwards again.
9. Bint El Bedu: Covered a load of extra ground last start and ran well but just missed. Continues to go well. Wants the speed on, pure grinder.
10. Dornier: Wants the speed on. Ran nicely enough behind Dandy Gent last start. Has to improve.
11. Prince of Pagoda: Failed to fire last start at Caulfield. Best runs below what is needed here. Inconsistent.
12. Anemoi: Not the worst run in the Pakenham Cup. Get back run on type.
13. Crafty Cruiser: Nice horse, 10yo, too old.
14. Cuban Fighter: Best isn’t good enough to win this.
Comments: Big query over the speed being on here. Also a big query over where horses position from the gates. Massive My Psychiatrist fan but query on where the horse gets in run from the wide barrier. Also a big fan of Bint El Bedu but concerned about the speed required. Even so, at the prices, i’m very happy to take a chance here on My Psychiatrist E/W
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 7, 9
Strategy: My Psychiatrist – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.62
Flemington Race 8 – 1400m – Nouvelle Star Handicap – BM-70
3. Jester Halo: Won well last two runs this prep. Another step up but not a lot. Barrier the only issue.
4. Evil Lil: Strong win last start in surprising manner. Back in class but back to dryer the issue. Maps well.
5. Fudged: Failed to fire last two starts and may be coming to end of prep after two good runs. Has to improve.
6. Hectopascal: Sandown winner last start over 1400m in this grade as a short priced favourite. Barrier the issue here but clearly one to beat.
7. Sharing: First up wasn’t terrible 5th to Our Sevira. Up in distance here but up in grade also.
8. Soho Ruby: Disappointed on the soft track last start at Pakenham. A few weeks between runs and stays at 1400m but back to Flemington. Very hard to beat if back to her best.
9. Sensation Ally: Two runs this prep. Ran very well behind Life on the Wire first up but then failed behind Hectopascal. Improving type.
10. Tranquil Miss: Sale winner last start in similar grade beating some ok horses. Back in distance the issue.
11. Flying Spark: Good run two back but then failed last start at Cranbourne when had every chance. Needs ot improve.
12. Pepperberry: Second up here up in distance and down in grade. Best in past not good enough.
13. So Far Sokool: Ignore last start when ridden incorrectly and focus on previous runs when ran top class times over 1400m. Can win and win well here.
14. Whyyouask: Get back run on type. Never won from 9 starts on a good track. Never placed 5 starts at flemington. Bad barrier.
15. All About Rhythm: Two runs this prep and both not bad at all. Can improve back in grade from good barrier.
16. Pearl de Vere: Two runs this prep and won both. Improve onwards again.
17. Fromparis Withlove: Werribee winner last start beating some average types. Huge jump here.
18. Manhattan Vixen: First up here. Has ability but needs to improve onwards.
19. Alma’s Rossa: Three runs this prep and failed to get within 2.9L of a win. That being said, two back run was good.
20. Classic Diva: Three runs this prep just like a few others and gone through the same races. Has to find lengths on those runs.
Comments: Very keen that So Far Sokool is the best horse in this race and the cream will rise to the top. Main dangers look to be Hectopascal and Soho Ruby.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 6, 8, 13
Strategy: So Far Sokool – 5 units @ $4.00 to win
