Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington on 1 January 2017. Happy New Year to all our followers – i hope you had a great night celebrating until the early hours of the morning, and most importantly, got on our two best bets last night at Moonee Valley that both saluted. We return to Flemington for racing on what will be a nice Good 3 surface that should play fair for all throughout the day. The two races I'm keen to bet into feature proven horses and i'm quite confident as you can tell by the staking. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 3 – Crocodile Rock – 5 units @ $2.30
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 – Lord van Percy – 2.5 units @ $3.90
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 10, 17
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7
Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 8, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1000m – New Year Plate
1. Carusmatic: Comes into this race with some solid form from over in Adelaide. Failed first up down the straight but then went on to win a 4 horse race in 2Y-SWP grade. Was then defeated last start in a 5 horse race. This looks much harder.
2. Miss Wahoo: Ran very well her first run of last prep. Had nearly 3 months to mature onwards and learn a bit more and looks a type to be well suited down the straight. Will measure up.
3. Windsor: Seemed to have every chance first up at Moonee Valley when fairly beaten by Cao Cao 3.9L. A month between runs and clearly has to improve.
4. Limestone: Weir runner that went very well first up at Moonee Valley behind a very classy horse in Catchy. Has to improve but is well suited.
6. Future Road: Only fairly bred type that has been a big drifter in betting. Not fancied.
7. I'll Have a Bit: First up runner for the McArdle stable. Bayliss takes the ride and the horse has attracted a bit of money but essentially has been a drifter.
9. Miss Vixen: Respectable trial win coming into this for the first starter. Bred well enough and Dunn takes the ride. Dam measured up to stakes/handicap level with a win down the Flemington straight, running 3rd to Typhoon Tracy as a 3YO. Had a short career with just 5 runs. Looks an ideal horse to run well here at big odds.
10. Oscietra: The daughter of Black Caviar. She will start under the odds on reputation alone. Certainly looked impressive in jump outs.
11. Outboard Motors: Dam was a maiden winner over 1100m and that's about it. Trial was okay but nothing special really. Hard to suggest for mine.
12. Royal Disguise: First starter for the Price yard. Always seems to land one of these at $20+ a year in 2YO races especially down the straight.
Comments: As always, these are very difficult races to bet into. Laying Oscietra is clearly the simple option. I liked what Miss Wahoo showed us last prep and expect she will have gone on with it while Miss Vixen is the value of the race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Miss Wahoo to win. Also a small bet on Miss Vixen. An even smaller bet on the quinella of these two.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Straight Draw Handicap
1. Taiyoo: Won one of the poorest form races two runs back at Kyneton as you will see in a long time. Backed it up last start beaten 10L. I clearly want to take him on today as i think the form lines are total rubbish and he just isn't going well enough.
2. Goldstream: Group class winner as a 3YO in Italy but has shown nothing since being imported. First run over 2000m for him and if he is going to produce, then this is the race you will see it in.
4. Desert Jeuney: Looked very good early on in the prep but has fallen away significantly since well beaten the past three starts. Has to improve but back to Flemington should help his chances.
5. Loophole: Waller runner that hasn't won in two preps. Two runs so far this prep have seen him well defeated by significant margins. Hard to suggest even at the distance based on the last two starts.
6. Tooleybuc Kid: Hasn't been close to a win this prep after the first up second to Royal Rapture. Horrible the last three starts in winnable races compared to others that beat him. I couldn't have him here.
7. Kourkam: Ran quite well over the 1600m last start at Flemington behind Kenjorwood with 51kg. No claim today and up in distance will suit.
8. Master Zephyr: Has been running well without winning this prep. Fairly beaten last start by High Church but was probably his best run all prep last start. Running well and looks a big chance.
9. Dance of Heroes: Had his chances last start with 60kg behind Flying Light at course and distance and found 5 runners too good. Down to 54kg but well up in grade. Has to improve. Never won in this class.
10. Flying Light: Good start to finish win last start at course and distance running solid sectionals throughout. Gives Dance of Heroes 6kg here at the weights and isn't very well weighted against others that have been measuring up in Open/Listed class recently. That being said, he is going well enough to win.
11. Scelto: Hard horse to catch. Finally up over 2000m again where he is much better suited. Ran very well last start over 1500m and can run well here.
12. Temps Voleur: Close 2nd over 1800m three runs back, his two runs since have been bad and it's hard to see him placing in this field.
13. Jimivag: Fairly beaten by Sammy The Snake last start at Sandown. Did get further back than expected but still was an average run. Has the ability to go well but hard to suggest in this class.
Comments: This is a really hard race to rate with High Church scratched. Goldstream over the distance could really run well here if has found some form, but that's a big unknown. Kourkam should run well and so will Master Zephyr. Even Flying Light can go on with it, but gets a much harder task out front with other speed runners. Tricky race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Master Zephyr to win. Also back Goldstream.
Flemington Race 3 – 1600m – Byron Moore Handicap
1. Dane Thunder: Continues to push through the grades with some very impressive runs. Stays in BM-70 grade but faces a tougher task with more weight and a better field. Well suited here but barrier does make it hard.
2. Crocodile Rock: Very impressive first up last prep over BM-70 over further. Will be no dramas with him over 1600m today having won his maiden over this distance in the past. Well enough weighted and looks a very good untapped type. Really needs to be ridden off the rails.
3. Lunar Spin: Godolphin runner. Finally got a win back in BM-64 grade two back before being fairly beaten last start by 2.3L in this grade. Has to improve to measure up here.
4. Siga La Vaca: Consistent type of horse that is never far from a win, his run last start was probably his worst of the prep. Has to improve onwards and upwards to beat these.
5. Gervais: Every chance last start when beaten 1.6L by Dane Thunder from an on speed position. Better barrier but will still need to do a lot of work to keep his position. Has to improve.
6. Sparsholt: BM-64 grade winner two back from on speed before going back and running wide well beaten to Dane Thunder. Unknown for mine but others preferred.
7. Praecereus: Two starts this prep and both ahve been well beaten efforts. BM-64 grade winner in the past over 1600m on a soft track.
9. Peaky Blinders: Geelong BM-64 grade winner over 1726 after five attempts this prep. Outclassed here on last few runs.
10. Silver Stratum: Gets back and runs on. Outclassed the past two runs in BM-70 grade when beaten 3L and 4.3L.
12. Mister Will: Been going to Adelaide to get wins on Heavy tracks… did get a BM-64 grade 2050m win at Mount Gambier on Good. Not the worst last start at the bool in easier but this is a big step up.
13. Stone Warrior: BM-64 grade 2nd last start at Sandown from out the back. Was quite a good run and has to be respected. Big ask here today though.
14. Wheal Leisure: Maiden winner last start in only average time. Huge step up in class.
15. Ruary Mac: Couldn't win a BM-58 the past two starts…
Comments: For mine, Dane Thunder looks the only opposition today to Crocodile Rock who could simply come out and blow this field away by several lengths. Crocodile Rock is an absolute special at the price for mine and as long as he jumps well, he will be incredibly hard to hold out. Very happy to start the year with a big bet on this horse.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Crocodile Rock – 5 units @ $2.30
Flemington Race 4 – 100m – Nouvelle Star Handicap
1. Scandimania: Two starts this prep and two nice wins. Last start probably a bit lucky to beat Anatola who was held up for runs but that is Moonee Valley. Back to Flemington where she has only had one run and didn't place, but that was due to her form not the track i'd say. Has to be respected even with the top weight.
2. Stratum Magic: Nice enough start to finish win at Cranbourne heading into this in easier grade. Down to 1000m a slight concern up in grade.
3. Magna Rossa: Back to form last start in harder company when almost landed the win at course and distance. Was a very nice time run and looks well suited here. Big chance.
4. Trinity Hill: 7th in a Group 1 over in New Zealand last prep over 1600m. BM-64 winner first up over 1200m. Back to 1000m doesn't look ideal to be but what would I know. Horse has ability.
5. Annrhon: Maiden and then CL1 winner heading into this. Back to 1000m interesting today on what she has done previous over further. Has to improve.
6. Chanceofalifetime: BM-64 winner over Tigidig which isn't much to brag about… well beaten 4L by a good type in Sallanches last start at Moonee Valley. First run down the straight up in grade.
7. Shemai: Shown nothing since a 1000m win last prep at Sandown on soft. Two runs this prep and very well beaten in both. Had breathing issues last start. Hard to know if she will be right today.
8. Conspicuous Maid: CL1 5th last start of last prep but did run 1L 2nd in 3YOF race but wasn't behind much… First up down the straight… I'm not convinced she is top equality on what i saw last prep but could be proven wrong.
9. Deconi: First time at this track. First up off a long prep where she only found 1 win in a maiden. Never really got close to a win last prep after that above BM-64 grade. Has to have improved onwards with her time off.
10. Braemar: Maiden winner in slow time first up at Kyneton. Not good enough on my ratings.
11. Little Indian: Handles the straight and was a nice 4th slightly behind Magna Rossa first up. Will go on with it today and is well weighted. Big chance.
12. Starvasive: Maiden winner last prep. First up this prep on speed every chance beaten by a nice type. This is harder.
14. Dimoshot: Not the worst run at big odds 2.6L 6th at course over 1100m first up. 0 places or wins from 6 starts though.
Comments: Another tough betting race. Little Indian is weighted to win and gets a nice spot from barrier 5 even if misses the jump again here. Dimoshot probably not the worst 100-1 shot in the race either worth putting in your exotics.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Little Indian E/W
Flemington Race 5 – 1400m – Red Tempo Handicap
1. Bob of the Head: Comes into this off an okay run at Pakenham 4th in Open grade. Back a few steps to where his last win was at BM-70 on a long straight track. Up to 1400m the only query but has won at similar distances in the past.
2. Deja Blue: Good win last start at Sandown after failing to fire at Flemington the start before Continues to go through the grades and has to be considered.
4. Rezak: Came home strongly first up when not considered at Mornington when 2.3L 5th behind Cheeky Babe. Back to Flemington today and looks better suited up in distance. Has chances here.
5. Red Alto: Heavy track maiden win first up. Up to 1400m. Best has been seen over 1800-2000m distances in the past though. May have turned a corner this prep in… back to a firm track.
6. Portman: Lightly raced 4YO. Two starts this prep for two solid wins including a big win last start at Bendigo. Horrible barrier but can go on with it today.
7. Secret Prophet: Continues to run well without winning. Asked a lot on speed last start at Bendigo and ran very well for 2nd. Previous start just beaten also by a nice type. Clearly has the ability. Barrier a concern but will push forward and get it a little easier out front today.
8. Jest for the Road: Two wins in a row this prep in much easier BM-58 grade. Huge step up in class back to the 1400m here. Has to find lengths but does have ability.
9. Miss Sydney: BM-64 grade winner last start at Sandown beating a nice type in Fast Tycoon. Maiden winner the prior trip. May start to put a few wins together.
10. Snitzson: 3YO Colt stepping up to open class racing today. Beaten favourite last start at course and distance and really should have probably won. Not convinced that is the best form line.. has to improve at these weights for mine.
11. Tycoon Felix: Fairly beaten last start by a type going well at Bairnsdale. Even so, big step up here for a horse that hasn't won for 9 months and is up in grade.
12. Gagosian: Been up in Sydney the last two starts and ran horrible over further. BM-58 2nd to start this prep and CL1 win. Not one of the best here.
13. Viceroy: Did a lot wrong last start at Sandown when finished off strong enough to run 5th in easier grade. I still think that race will measure up form wise to be a solid race. Has his chances here.
14. I Am Wanted: Couldn't place in CL1 or BM-64 grade the past two starts. Not the worst but hard to have.
16. Rock'n'rollrock: Beaten favourite last start in 3YO grade similar to this. Much harder race today and has to improve.
17. Lotza Focus: Very nice 5th behind Electric Tribute last start at course over 1600m. Back in distance is ideal and good barrier today will see him slot in well. Big chance.
Comments: Secret Prophet and Lotza Focus are the two standouts on my ratings. Both map very positively for a economical run and both come in with form lines I want to follow.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 10, 17
Strategy: Back both Secret Prophet and Lotza Focus.
Flemington Race 6 – 1200m – Standish Handicap
1. Lord Aspen: Nice type of horse that has won 8 from 15! Goes very well at this track having won 2 of 3 starts. Back to 1200m today. Pulled up lame last start after a very disappointing performance in Adelaide. 21 days between runs a bit of a concern.
2. Thermal Current: First up today and never won first up. Never won at track either but does run well here. Has to be at his best.
3. Cavaloce: Very nice Listed win at Morphetville from the back last start. Down the straight first time today and looks very well suited to this type of race. Going well enough this prep to figure.
4. Odyssey Moon: Laughably started favourite last start at Flemington on a Good 3 track and failed to fire. Now 11 starts 0 wins on Good. Will be Good again today. No thanks.
5. Rough Justice: Continues to run well this prep without winning. Last start course 1400m 2nd to Snoopy. Back to 1200m – he is rock hard fit and a win wouldn't shock me one bit if the speed is on… set by him.
6. Lonrockstar: Trainer didn't want the horse to run which isn't a great lead in. Ran okay first up down the straight. Up to 1200m will help. Has ability.
7. Inspector: 1600m back to 1400m back to 1200m today. Throw at the stumps here up to Group 3 level. Hard to suggest a place.
9. Divine Mr Artie: Smashed them last start in BM-84 grade in a solid time. Stays at the 1200m for a good reason today. Won't get as much of a sit and sprint today as last start for mine but is clearly the one to beat.
10. Cosmic Lights: BM-70 grade winner in decent time first up over 1000m. First time over 1200m as a lightly raced 6YO… had a lot of problems (started 2nd faovurite as a 3YO down the straight running 2nd to O'Malley). Has ability.
11. Domesday Warrior: Every chance last start beaten by My Survivor. Really not convinced this form line will hold up at all. Take on.
Comments: Not the best Group 3 race you will ever see. Divine Mr Artie has to make a big class jump today but looks to have the ability. Rough Justice is a big chance to knock him off here while Cosmic Lights has the X Factor also. At the prices, I have to bet around Divine Mr Artie but not confidently.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 9, 10
Strategy: Back Cosmic Lights and Rough Justice.
Flemington Race 7 – 2800m – Bagot Handicap
1. Lord van Percy: Up to 2800m today which will certainly suit him here. Ran a very strong run 2nd to Boom Time last start at course on a good track. Up to 60kg here but certainly looks well suited.
2. Hale Soriano: Every chance last start at Flemington and just simply not good enough. Had 4 runs this prep and not been able to improve onwards enough for me to suggest here even up to 2800m. May want it wetter.
3. Tunes: Been running consistently the last three runs with a 0.1L 2nd, 0.1L 1st and 0.8l 2nd in much easier grade. Step up in class but well suited up to this distance. Going well enough.
4. Cinnamon Carter: Probably wants further if i'm honest. Horrible the last two runs over 2500m but up to 2800m suits more especially if speed is on. Not convinced she is good enough to win in this grade.
5. Sly Romance: Very nice 3000m win last start at Moonee Valley. Back to 2800m but no issues. This is a horse that has won up to 4000m in the pat so this is probably too short haha. Needs to improve but is going well enough to run well here.
6. Thunder Teddington: Loomed last start and found nothing! Needs to improve and on the past few runs I can't have him.
7. Annus Mirabillis: Big win last start in much easier class over 2400m. Should be suited stepping up to 2800m today but this is a big class jump.
8. Bullish Stock: Beaten $1.60 favourite last start by 7L. BM-78 winner over 3000m. Hard to suggest he meaures up to this grade when Cinnamon Carter bests him.
9. Arianne: She just isn't going well at all on the last few runs. Have to take her on.
10. Anemoi: Couldn't win BM-6 grade the past two starts. Huge step up in distance. Hard to suggest even on what we know.
11. Cry If I Want To: BM-64 2nd last start over 2400m. Huge step up in class and distance. Doubtful.
12. Tuff Bickie: 3YO-LR 4th over 2800m… but never really a top class horse over that distance. Not a bad run two back over 2000m… but should have been winning last start in BM-64 grade if winning this.
13. He's a Genius: Struggle to suggest a placing up in grade up in distance off the past few runs.
14. Coppola: Unplaced in BM-58 grade last two starts.
15. Raindrops On Roses: Couldn't place the last two starts in BM-64 grade.
Comments: There are certainly some absolute no chances going around today in this race. I'm not convinced anything is as good as Lord van Percy and I just have to take the price on offer even with the weight from a nice barrier.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7
Strategy: Lord van Percy – 2.5 units @ $3.90
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Summer Racing Handicap
1. Domino Vitale: Absolutely shitful last start from out the back at Sandown… Was a very horrible ride. Williams back onboard and you can guarantee she will be much further forward here today. Rates well back in class here at the distance.
2. La Speciale: Very nice run last start at course over 1400m in harder company when 0.1L 2nd. Clearly a nice horse and goes fine over the distance. Awkward mapping the only negative.
3. Lopartega: Got a win over 1400m at Pakenham four runs back over Rewardng Effort. Since then ran a nice 2nd to Hell or Highwater but failed to fire the two runs since. Back to 1600m… hard to know what she will produce today.
4. Prepee: Two runs this prep and well enough beaten in both occasions. Best last prep is still well below what is required to win this. Testing material.
5. Gilago: 2200m winner last prep. Went okay over 1600m but best shown over further. First up today. Hard to suggest the win off what we know but can run well.
6. Hot Ruby: Nice run 2nd two back at Traralgon before failing to fire at Moonee Valley last start. May have to forgive last start but even so she has to improve. Never won at this distance.
7. Loveitt: Ran very well 3rd behind Hell or Highwater from off the speed last start. Previous run also good 3rd behind Honey Cara over 1800m. Back to 1600m looks ideal and should go well at this track. Barrier the only negative.
8. La Fleurette: BM-64 winner last start at Sandown coming off a FMB-58 grade win three back. Going through the grades this prep and looks an okay type. Don't dismiss.
9. My Obession: 7 runs this prep and yet to run top two. Step up in class again today. Has ability but others preferred on previous runs.
10. Tessabelle: Kav yard horse. Been going well enough in easier grades going close the past two starts. Up to 1600m and a bit better suited but also has to improve. Go forward from the wide barrier.
11. Sanaya: FMB-70 2nd last start at Mornington but it was a nice run. This horse has ability and will appreciate the track today. Hard barrier today though.
12. Morning Sunshine: BM-58 win last start isn't exactly the form you want coming into something like this. Has to improve.
13. She's Got Speed: Every chance from on speed last start at Moonee Valley but Ballybrit and another went straight past her. Goes okay at this track and on these types of tracks but i'm not convinced she is going better than every runner here.
14. Simple Solution: Maiden winner two back at Sale but failed to get past She's Got Speed last start at Moonee Valley and doesn't get any weight relief.
15. More Spark: Poor last start. Not too bad the previous run 3rd to Dubai King. Has to improve and find more here.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. I have to forgive Domino Vitale for that ride last start and am backing up on her here again today with Williams back onboard from a very positive barrier.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 8, 10, 11
Strategy: Domino Vitale to win
