Welcome to The Profits preview for Derby Day at Flemington on 4 November 2017. After a successful mid-week meeting at Bendigo, we head to Flemington for the first of four Flemington Carnival meetings. We have a few confident bets on the card while there are several races on the day that pose poor betting propositions with huge field sizes. We can expect the track to play fair and we are wanting to bet up as the day goes on and we learn more about the track. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 – Levendi – 7 units @ $3.80 to win.
Next Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 – Harlem – 3 units @ $4.00 to win. Aloft – 2 units @ $6.00 to win.
Best Each-Way
Flemington Race 3 – Sheidel – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5/$2.00
Best Value
Flemington Race 7 – Justice Faith – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $51/$11
Other Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Tosen Stardom – 1.5 units @ $6.4 to win. Lucky Hussler – 1.25 units @ $7.00 to win. Tom Melbourne – 1.25 units @ $6.60 to win.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 14, 16
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 10, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1600m – The Carbine Club Stakes G3
1. Snitzepeg: Strong on speed win last start at Caulfield getting past Lord Sundowner late. A few good runs behind but was a good win. Has to improve again.
2. Beau Geste: Got back 3-wide no cover at Caulfield behind Snitzepeg but didn’t run on well. Can expect better here from a better gate.
3. Gaulois: CL2 winner last start and taking a huge step up in grade. Can’t see it.
4. Danger Deal: Well beaten 10th last start in much easier. Previous run no better. Not here.
5. Sambro: Waller runner that ran third last start with a high weight. Has to be respected on ability and last few runs.
7. Levendi: Held up for runs last start in the Caulfields Guineas and finished off well for 6th. Could argue he would have gone close to top 3 if not held up for runs. Good barrier today.
8. Paseeto: Two wins in a row this prep and can continue to push on with it here. Much needed improvement needed.
9. Hypnotist: Out of the places the last two starts in races easier than this. Has to step up to be seen here.
10. Lord Sundowner: Crashed through the barriers last start and may have cost himself the race doing so. Need to improve but can go well.
11. Octabello: Held up last start when making his run behind Snitzepeg and a few others at Caulfield and could have gone close. 1600m ideal and so is barrier 2.
12. Almighty: Blinkers on. Fairly beaten in the Gothic Stakers last start behind Snitzepeg. Looking for more speed on I can only assume.
13. Give: Not shown enough the past three starts to suggest a win here. May need a stronger tempo.
14. Mactier: Looked well in the yard last start and got back to near last in running and went the widest to go past Beau Geste and a few others to run 5th. Expect a more forward ride today with Callow on board. He could be a good one at odds.
15. Rellson: Maiden winner two back. Out the back and ran on well enough 4th at Flemington behind Snitzepeg. Would need to find lengths again.
16. Irish Vega: Maiden winner two back. Failed in BM-64 last start at Cranbourne. Hard to suggest.
Comments: Levendi was a massive run last start in the Guineas held up for runs at the top of the straight and would have gone close with a better ride. Melham on for a positive jockey change and from barrier 5 maps perfectly. Very keen.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Levendi – 7 units @ $3.80 to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – G.H. Mumm Wakeful Stakes G2
1. Bring Me Roses: Smashed them last start in the G2 Manifold. Not sure the runners out of that race are top class? Even so, great win. Respect.
2. Pure Scot: Beaten 10L in Thousand Guineas. Previous run no room beaten 2.6L Bring Me Roses. Has ability to go okay back to this grade. Up to 2000m query.
3. Glam Guru: 3-wide no cover looked sensational last week and on quick back up. Has run 1800m, this prep so okay with step back up to 2000m. Respect.
4. Lucky Louie: Looked great in yard last start but not suited by the stop start nature of the race and still ran home well for 6th from dead last. Will present well again and from barrier 2 likely to be further forward.
5. Hiyaam: Nice runs the past two but beaten by better horses on the day. Hard to see a turn around in form over Bring Me Roses but does have the fitness of a 2000m run.
6. Rimraam: Looked sensational in the yard last start and ran brilliantly for 2nd to Pinot. Pinot could very well be the real deal and this run could be under-rated. Maps on speed.
7. Luvaluva: 2L 2nd to Kaonic last start which is very solid form lines and 6th the run prior in the G1 Flight. Has to improve up to 2000m.
8. Improvise: Maiden winner two back and then 5th in easier last start. Huge jump in class and distance.
9. Smooth Landing: G3 76th last start when worked home fairly without finding much luck. 5th in the Flight previous run. Not sure she is this class.
10. Teodora: 4th in the Ethereal from out back and started favourite. Needs to find lengths on that last run. Stable like her.
11. Pres de Toi: Likely leader? Mornington maiden winner over 2000m last start. Can run nicely in this grade but has to improve onwards.
12. Sheezdashing: Not the worst run at MV last start but clearly this is a step up in grade again for mine up to 2000m.
13. Snogging: Mornington 3rd in CL1 grade last start as favourite. Had every chance.
14. Cabierro: Maiden winner at Ballarat last start. Huge jump needed to place in this.
15. Berkshire Lady: Beaten 2.6L in a maiden last start. Craig Williams on but surely not.
16. Miss Admiration: 4th in BM-58 last start. No.
Comments: Happy to stick with the on speed runner Rimraam who ran a very strong race last start and is proven at the distance. Can go one better today without Pinot in the race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Rimraam E/W
Flemington Race 3 – 1100m – Skip Sprint G3
1. Sheidel: Oakleigh Plate winner and goes very well down the straight here. Had every chance last start from on speed and looked great in the yard but found a few too good. Needs to improve again but even so hard to dismiss.
2. Savanna Amour: Led last start in a slowly run race and just didn’t have it to suit. Speed will be on here and proven down the straight.
3. Zestful: G3 2nd last start at Randwick on a Soft 7. Needs to improve again here to beat the very best but last start has her in the picture.
4. Desert Lashes: Well below the grade needed last start when 5th from on speed in a race a clear step below this.
5. Nieta: Good run last start at Caulfield first time Melbourne Way in a race where she paraded well but not at top and got in the worst part of going. Has more to give here but even so has to get past Lyuba who beat her home fairly.
6. Lyuba: Ran a near career peak last start at Caulfield when back and wide and still ran on for 2nd. Didn’t parade at top mentally and could improve more today from the yard. Only run at track was a win.
7. Lake Como: Hard how to catch but goes very well at this track normally. First up last prep won from out front here over some average types. 3 from 3 first up. Has to be respected.
8. Conchita: Looked well in the yard last start at Caulfield but never really got into it and was well beaten on the day. A lesser chance and not one of mine.
9. Motown Lil: Forgive run last start when held up for runs and probably should have won. Previous run good enough but still 5th behind Snitty Kitty and a few others. Has to improve in this class.
10. Concealer: Looked a nice type last prep. Failed to really fire first up at Caulfield. Would have to run a career peak.
11. Written Era: Best runs in the past have been on the very wet surfaces. Didn’t get the runs last start.
12. Crystal Fountain: Progressive type that has always been well placed, but I thought she had every chance first up and just wasn’t good enough. Not sure here.
Comments: Sheidel is the clear standout no matter how you look at this race. The main dangers appear to me to be Savanna Amour and Lake Como. Very keen to be betting on Sheidel who should lead them all the way.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Sheidel – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $5/$2.00
Flemington Race 4 – 2500m – Lexus Stakes G3
1. Ecuador: Had the Seymour Cup his to own and just couldn’t measure up from out front with 60kg. Back up in distance big time today but never competed at this in the past. Unknowns here but ok at weights.
2. Harlem: Comes into this off a tough Caulfield Cup run where got smashed at worst times and may still have more to come from the yard. If parades well could very well be a moral here on form.
3. Havana Cooler: 5L off Big Duke last start in the St Leger but made okay ground late at big odds. Not the worst here.
4. Aloft: Ran horrible last start at Caulfield when got the tongue over the bit. Ignore and rate on two back run which is more than good enough to win here. Respect.
5. Guardini: Couldn’t win a handicap at Moonee Valley over 2040m so hard to suggest over 2500m here.
6. Vengeur Masque: Geelong Cup winner in what will prove to be a stronger race than many expect. Perfect ride to get the win in that race in what Gallic Chieftain was a good thing beat. Respect enough here.
7. Cismontane: Had every chance last start in the Moonee Valley Cup and wasn’t good enough off a slow tempo. Struggle to see a change in form here.
8. Pentathlon: Looked to be flying at the turn last start at Moonee Valley but doesn’t have a turn of foot. Expect to run well with more speed on here.
9. Alward: Shocked by the price. Did improve lengths last start out at course over 2000m but since then has found a few too good well in at the weights. Has to improve back to this track.
10. Kellstorm: Worked nicely from well back in the Geelong Cup. Go much better here but hard to suggest with a good 3 on track.
Comments: Very keen to be backing Harlem big time with a smaller bet on Aloft. Pentathlon looks the value.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Harlem 3 units @ $4.60 to win. Aloft 2 units @ $5.50 to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1200m – Coolmore Stud Stakes G1
1. Trapeze Artist: 4L Golden Rose winner on a Good track. If he can go close to repeating that effort over 1200m he is unbeatable. Big if based on the progression shown between runs.
2. Kementari: Two strong lead in runs including a Guineas 2nd. 1600m back to 1200m worked for Hey Doc..?
3. The Mission: Best seen over further and on wetter surfaces. Not for me.
4. Summer Passage: Didn’t handle the 1200m for mine last start and they stick at it. Needs further.
5. Viridine: A lot of questions to still answer from this horse. Has been competing in races that have suited and takes the step down to the Flemington straight and has to improve lengths on what has been delivered on the course. Could very well do it.
6. Jukebox: Every chance in the Blue Sapphire but ran into one better for mine. Yes 3-wide no cover not ideal but that’s not an issue at Caulfield.
7. Goodfella: Two wins in a row and looking to make it a third. Huge jump in class and ratings + times are well below what is needed.
8. Merchant Navy: Always looked a good type but failed in the Golden Rose. Back to 1200m today and rates as a horse that has to find lengths to beat these. Blinkers on.
9. Dracarys: G3 Winner. Not great in the Golden Rose but ok. Would have to improve back to 1200m.
10. Eptimum: Ran some good times the past few runs and has to at least be respected here.
11. Lone Eagle: Strong finish in the Blue Diamond last start and is looking for more speed on in a race like this today. Will get a chance to have the last shot at them.
12. Malahat: Fairly beaten in Listed grade last start. Not here for mine.
13. Andaz: Listed grade 3rd behind Goodfella from out the back. Had his chances and needs to find lengths.
14. Wassergeist: 1400m back to 1200m. Not one I have at the top of my ratings.
15. Houtzen: Jump lead and try hold them off. First time at Track. Wasn’t bad in the Everest at all 7th. Has to improve.
16. Catchy: Great in the Caulfield Guineas but for mine just didn’t see out 1600m. 1600m back to 1200m like Kementari but has a g2 Flemington 1200m win on the board from this prep already. Big chance.
17. Tulip: 5th in the Everest from out the back. Was a very good ride and good placing. Comes into this well under the ratings but has to be respected.
18. Formality: Smashed them last start at Caulfield in the Blue Diamond with a perfect ride. No reason to jump off today. Only negative is first run down straight in a race.
19. Invincible Star: Smashed the clock last start and comes into this with the best 1200m form of any runner from last start. Respect big time.
20. Limestone: Hard to see her making the leap on what i’ve seen this prep but this is the Weir stable and he has re-started the prep. Does look a bit of stupid odds on potential.
Comments: Eptimum is too short here and for mine so is Viridine. Trapeze Artist has to be respected but can the horse rpeat that run? Catchy is proven at this distance and has the right ratings. Houtzen and Tulip both measured up in the Everest and deserve respect. Kementari has to make the 1600m back to 1200m drop and i don’t see the horse being of this class. Formality can go on with it after the Blue Sapphire run. Invincible Star ran a career peak last start at Caulfield and it was enough to be a serious force here. At the $11/$3.50 IS looks the way to play here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Invincible Star E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1600m – Myer Classic G1
1. Flying Jess: Loves to run second with three close defeats this prep. Has the ability and continues to fly home. Is Group 1 quality.
2. Global Glamour: Got the race run to suit last start at Caulfield when not anywhere near top in the yard and I get the feeling she will still be a run short of her best which could cost the race here with the speed on.
3. Foxplay: Didn’t seem to handle the ‘sharp’ Melbourne way and will be better suited to the longer straight here. Has a lot to prove here.
4. I Am a Star: Horrible on speed in the Toorak and pulled up lame. Previous run beat home Flying Jess in the Stock Stakes. Has ability to lead.
5. Silent Sedition: Push forward type that was 3-wide no cover last start and still finished solidly. Expect to find cover from barrier 4 today.
6. Heavens Above: Not gone close all prep and looks well outclassed here.
7. Danish Twist: Horrible last start. Probably a bit of a forgive run but off the last three runs I can’t suggest her.
8. Dixie Blossoms: G3 win tow back and then fairly beaten from just off the speed last start in easier than this. Take on.
9. Daysee Doom: Beaten by Dixie the past two starts. Not for me.
10. Prompt Response: On speed runner that ran very well last start no cover early and just got run down late. Will be forward again today.
11. French Emotion: Back and didn’t run on off the hot speed. Went to the poor part of track but still wasn’t a great run. Hard to see her improving enough here.
12. Sword of Light: Good win three back at Flemington but last two starts just not up to this grade. No.
13. Eckstein: Had her chances at Caulfiueld last start but got caught 3-wide no cover and stuck on. Has some ability worth considering.
14. Now or Later: Held up for runs at critical stages last start and just not suited by tempo. Better barrier today and back to Flemington suited.
16. Shoals: 50kg and stays at 1600m. Was only beaten 1.25L by Aloisia who is a G1 class mare on what we have seen. Looks very well placed.
17. Ellicazoom: Not going anywhere near as well this prep as the past two. Short back up here from the Geelong meeting but has to improve.
Comments: Most open race of the day. Several horses could win this.. an then some. with 50kg Shaosl is right up to this and will be hard to beat from a good spot in running. Now or Later will get the right tempo needed.. many chances as we said beyond these.
Confidence 40%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 14, 16
Strategy: Shoals E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 2500m – AAMI Victoria Derby G1
1. Ace High: Two wins in a row including a G1. Tangled didn’t exactly frank the form last start but wasn’t bad. Has to improve to win this.
2. Tangled: Two seconds in a row. Fairly beaten last start 2.75L by Cliff’s Edge. Has to improve again and handle the distance.
3. Astoria: Got a long way back and ran on very well in the Geelong Classic. Good barrier today should see him sit further forward. Big chance.
4. Eshtiraak: Actually ran on okay from the back last start. McEvoy takes the ride but I can’t see this.
5. Main Stage: Not right in the yard last start so a big concern he could turn up the same way. That being said, we know that if he turns up that he has lengths of improvement to come.
6. Sully: Fairly beaten by Ace High and Tangled last start in the G1 up north. Should stay on breeding but has to improve lengths.
7. Weather With You: Tough staying effort last start from on speed at Geelong. Will sit midfield/forward from a great barrier and will only improve onwards. Others better at the weights today though.
8. Aberro: Boxed on ok the last two starts but looks very much a level below the best here. Top 6 best.
9. Pissaro: Looked great in the yard last start and ran home for 4th beaten 9.4L. Can’t see the 5-8L needed in improvement.
10. Justice Faith: Never got a shot at them last start at Geelong in the Classic and looked to have loads to still give. Poor barrier but expect Craig to find an ok spot throughout. Looks overs.
11. Ocean’s Fourteen: 2nd in the Geelong Classic when got a nice run throughout and just missed. Clearly in this.
12. Greycliffe: BM-64 grade up to this. Didn’t rate well at all. Pass.
13. Johnny Vinko: Looked an out and out stayer on two back run. A step below the best though.
14. Nothing Too Hard: Couldn’t go with them late in the Geelong Classic. Hard to see this type of horse winning here.
15. Rockarral: Happy to take on this maiden winner on the last start effort.
16. Wolfe Tone: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Main Stage is the best horse here but will need a hell of a ride to get the win. That is factored into the price. Justice Faith is the blowout chance in the race who will equally need as good a ride.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10
Strategy: Justice Faith – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $51/$11
Flemington Race 8 – 1600m – Kennedy Mile G1
1. Tosen Stardom: Won a brutally run Toorak Handicap last start with a top weight with 2nd/3rd getting 5kg on him. Less speed on here but maps to get more forward. Respect.
2. Lucky Hussler: Speed on last start in the Crystal Mile and he dominated the field, home at the 600m mark. This is a big step up class wise but he is good enough. Wide barrier hurts.
3. Sense of Occasion: Best runs in the past have been on wetter tracks and this will be bone dry on Saturday. Two runs this prep on firm tracks beaten 5.5l and 10.4L.
4. McCreery: Four runs this prep and has run no better than third. Every chance last start for mine and found a few too good. Has to improve.
5. Tom Melbourne: Massive run last start on speed in the Toorak and just kept on finding while leaders finished well out the back. G1 Epsom run the run prior rates very well for this also showing his acceleration at the end of a race. Will be afforded a more economical run this week.
6. Egg Tart: Weighted to run well again here. Had every chance on speed last start but didn’t have the ability to finish off with that tempo. Will get a better style of race to suit today.
7. Dibayani: Ran well without winning last start and comes into this with a load of improvement to come. Would need to run a career best to be considered.
8. Omei Sword: Didn’t find clear running last start in the Toorak and can potentially be given another chance today if you like her. Personally, not up to this for mine.
9. Shillelagh: Flew home last start off a slow tempo at Caulfield but from her position in running is unlikely to figure in the finish here.
10. Sovereign Nation: G1 2nd last start. Stays at the low weight but will want the speed on again to be figuring here from back in the run.
11. So Si Bon: Back up in distance with this horse but still not up over 2000m which is surprising. Can run well at 1600m but will get a long way back and be given a huge distance to run down.
12. All Our Roads: Nice type of horse but clearly outclassed here. Take on.
13. Radipole: Best in the past would have him going well enough to consider in this. Not sure he is going well enough for this though.
14. Wyndspelle: A grade below these this prep. Happy to avoid.
Comments: Three standouts in this race for me in Tosen Stardom, Tom Melbourne and Lucky Hussler. If any other runner pops up and wins the race, so be it. One of these three runners wins the race most often than the odds combined suggest and i’m happy to bet up. At least 2 will be just on speed while the third SHOULD also push forward.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5
Strategy: Tosen Stardom 1.5 units @ $6.4 to win. Lucky Hussler 1.25 units @ $7.00 to win. Tom Melbourne 1.25 units @ $6.60 to win.
Flemington Race 9 – 1200m – TAB Multiplier Stakes
1. Illustrious Lad: Strong run first up at Caulfield when not 100% fit yet in the yard and will have more improvement to come. Loves the straight and well suited.
2. Keen Array: Top weight last start giving 6kg to the winner and just missed. Previous start run well down the straight in a slowly run race. Tough horse that keeps improving.
3. The Monstar: Listed 4th last start not the worst lead in run behind In Her Time. Previous starts only fair but has ability to rate here.
5. First Among Equals: Not the worst run first up 4-wide at turn and beaten 2.95L. Can improve for the run 2nd up but even so first time down straight and has to improve significantly.
6. Lope de Capio: Toughest race of his career coming off two nice listed grade wins over 1100m and 1200m. Cool Passion form franked since. Can run well.
7. Missrock: Too far back last start and smashed the clock coming home solidly over the 1000m. Back up to 1200m today and clearly best is good enough.
8. Bons Away: Solid rating out of last start and previous run was as good beating Brave Smash. Speed will be on in race for him, just needs to be mature enough to get going without a corner.
9. Ravi: G3 winner first up before a fair 3rd at Caulfield last start. Had 40 days between runs.. only run at track in past didn’t place. Hard to dismiss.
10. Malibu Style: Best run in the past would have these covered but has been well out of it in the yard in recent runs. Looked horrible last start and ran fairly 3-wide no cover all things considered.
11. Rich Charm: Good win last start and 2 wins at track suggests well suited again here. Obvious chance.
12. Sold for Song: Well beaten up in distance last start wide no cover. Previous run huge off a slow tempo early.
13. Le Cordon Bleu: Not one I can see featuring here even from this yard.
14. Sweet Sherry: Two runs this prep have been average at best. Not for me.
15. Man From Uncle: First up from a trial. 245 days between runs. G3 winner last prep over 1200m and best runs are good enough to figure here.
Comments: Wide open race to finish the day. I have to take on Ravi and Rich Charm at their prices. Man from Uncle is also slight unders but may drift. Illustrious Lad has been well found while Keen Array Bons Away and Missrock are all not getting the respect they deserve. The Monstar is a huge chance here on the last start run.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 10, 15
Strategy: Back Illustrious Lad, Missrock and Bons Away
