Welcome to The Profits preview for Flemington and the Gold Coast 14 January 2017. We come into this meeting after landing some massive bets last week with our best value at $23 fixed and $40 available on Betfair before the jump landing at Caulfield on top of our Best Bet getting up. Of course, let’s not forget the Quaddie turning $100 into $1600.. so yes, it was a massive day and hopefully we can continue on with some solid results today at Flemington and the Gold Coast. Please take note of the UBET offer for everyone excluding NSW residents where they are giving you $50 money back on your first bet on every race if the horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the race! This is a huge offer and you would be hard done by going through the card and not profiting! Also, there is a $1,500,000 Quaddie pool bonus at UBET so make sure you place your Gold Coast quaddie there for a bigger return! As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Flemington Best Bets
Flemington Race 2 – Vandancer – 4 units @ $4.20 to win
Flemington Race 6 – Soviet Courage – 1.5 units to win 2 units to place @ $4.8/$1.75
Flemington Race 7 – Divine Mr Artie – 1 unit @ $4.00
Flemington Race 8 – Flying Light – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.45
Gold Coast Best Bets
Gold Coast Race 4 – Boom Time – 4 units @ $3.30 to win
Gold Coast Race 6 – Most Important – 1.5 units @ $4.00. Snoopy – 0.5 units @ $13
Gold Coast Race 3 – Siegfried – 1 unit Each-Way @ $8.5/$3.10
Gold Coast Race 7 – River Racer – 1 unit @ $5.10 to place
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 8
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8, 15
Gold Coast Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 12
Leg Three: 1, 8, 11, 13, 16
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 14, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1400m – Better Beyond Plate
1. Widgee Turf: Get back run on type. Ran very well last start at Moonee Valley behind Fuhryk from off the speed. Previous run at course and distance was a very respectable win over some nice types and the form has proven to be very solid. Respect here.
2. Oak Door: Nice run and win last start at Sandown when led and never really hassled in a slowish time for a Good 3 1400m race. Much harder here today where they will run it along faster out front with the favourite Emptor expected to take it up. Clearly good enough to win this but has to improve onwards and upwards again giving Emptor weight today.
3. Emptor: Good run 3rd last start at Caulfield over the 1200m and looks the type to be better suited to the long straight of Flemington and the extra 200m distance third up. Well suited here and Bayliss onboard.
4. Kenedna: Echuca BM-64 winner last start beating some only average types. Wants the extra distance today but clearly has to improve onwards on what we have seen in the past.
5. Fudged: Two wins from three starts this prep. Forgive two back run when held up most of the straight. Last start won well at Sandown and was strong through the line. Not convinced 1600m back to 1400m is hugely ideal, but she is more than good enough on current form to win this.
6. Havadash: Maiden winner second up on a soft 6 track. The win was nice but it was also expected at Stawell. Clearly has to improve to measure up to these.
7. Congressional: Price stable runner that won a maiden last start but failed to fire both runs after that. Needs to have trained on. Win wouldn’t shock as stable does have an opinion of the colt.
8. Dazzy’s Day:
Comments: Emptor the clear top pick here from Oak Door and Widgee Turf while Congressional looks the value pick that could improve and run well here today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Emptor to win.
Flemington Race 2 – 2000m – Seascay Handicap
1. Hell or Highwater: Top weight but gets down to an acceptable weight with the claim. Ran nicely 2nd to Kenjorwood at Caulfield last start from on speed and this is the first time up to the distance. I don’t have any queries over the horse at the distance leading and her formlines stack up in this class.
2. Honey Cara: Comes into this off two wins and then a very solid 2nd last start behind Prima at Moonee Valley over the 2040m. Up in class here again today but she has been going nicely and gets the trip no issues.
3. Vandancer: Won nicely first up before a disappointing run at Moonee Valley. Semed to have every chance the next run at Sandown but just wasn’t suited by the slowly run 1800m and found a strong 1800m last start at Sandown where she finished off the best outstaying them over the solid final 600m. No issues with the distance and if the speed is on she is a horse to beat. Will certainly be pushing them on for a strong final 600m.
4. Arianne: Hasn’t won in yonks and is just 1 place from the last 10 runs. Hasn’t shown enough the past few runs for me to suggest a win here, but over 2040m four runs back did run well enough to suggest a place here.
5. My Sanctuary: Every chance last start at Sandown over the 1800m when 2nd behind Vandancer. Just wasn’t tough enough on the day and will want them to run it a bit slower the first 1600m today to be a chance.
6. Alittle Loose: Well beaten 9th at Sandown during the week so unlikely to back up here. Hard to suggest.
7. Aurora Miss: BM-64 winner beating very little last start at Yarra Valley. Beaten in BM-58 grade the previous start. Not here.
8. Caves: Not the worst stayer… but BM-58 winner at Hanging Rock up to this is a tough ask.
Comments: Only really four chances in the market and on form that’s justified with Hell or Highwater, Honey Cara, Vandancer and My Sanctuary being the ones to beat. For mine, Vandancer is a huge price here today based on the past two starts where the horse has huge closing sectional power. From the barrier, I expect Vandancer to push forward and sit outside Hell or Highwater off what i’m expecting to only be a moderate pace at very best.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Vandancer – 4 units @ $4.20
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Meadow Mist Handicap
1. Vital Importance: Will be going back from the side barrier today to sit out the back. Last start in similar grade ran 0.1L 2nd with the top weight at Caulfield last start. Never won at this track and improved at Caulfield last start… but still goes fine here. 1400m is ideal.
2. Deja Blue: On speed runner. Horrible last start at course and distance when well beaten 10th coming off a very nice win at Sandown. Previous run at Flemington was poor as well. Has to improve.
3. Princess Arrow: Three starts for three wins and D Oliver takes the ride again today. Step up to 1400m the only query today.. won very easy last start in similar by 2L+.
4. Expinsive: Solid run 4th from too far back last start at Caulfield. Good win at Wangaratta two back and this is certainly a step up in class again on what is required to win.
5. Ma Jones: Weir runner. First up well beaten in an easier race over 1300m. Looking for further than this on best form of previous prep and i’m not sure I could take her seriously here on first up run.
6. New Summer Night: Got the win three back at Sandown over a similar distance. two runs since and has run ‘okay’ without winning. Gone very far back the last two runs and has been asked to make up a lot of ground. Will be closer today in a smaller field and with the long straight will have a chance to make up the ground. Well weighted.
7. Gingie: Two runs this prep and well beaten both attempts. Both runs were well below what is needed to win here. Take on.
8. Essence of Terror: Three runs this prep for two wins. Huge step up in class again here and while she has been winning well, this is a massive step up in class. Place chance for sure but I can’t have at this price.
9. Absolutelycertain: Didn’t place last start in BM-58 grade. Not here.
Comments: New Summer Night and Expinsive will both sit much closer to the leaders today in a smaller field than their last few starts while Vital Importance has the clear class factor here. I have to take on Essence of Terror and Princess Arrow at the prices being bet.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Vital Importance and New Summer Night.
Flemington Race 4 – 1100m – Piping Lane Handicap
1. Barthelona: Will get cover today from a middle barrier. Showed his class last prep at Sandown and then Caulfield winning in impressive fashion on soft tracks. It won’t be super hard this time of the day and Barthelona at his best can simply blow this field away.
2. Invincible Al: Moral beaten last start at Sandown. Previous two runs clearly shows his ability. 1100m certainly suits him and at the weights with the 3kg claim he looks well suited here.
3. If Not Now When: Lightly raced good type that has won twice over the sprint distances in strong price races. 266 days between runs.
4. Capannello: Nice enough win two back at Bairnsdale. Wide no cover at Sandown last start and a bit of a forgive for such a good run.
5. Strictly Legit: Asked simply too much last start at Caulfield in an easier race when 2L 3rd. Quick backup today down the straight. Blinkers on also.
6. Toorak Cowboy: Sandown maiden winner last start. Huge jump in class and very hard to see the win on that maiden win.
7. Hellbound: Super run first up then shown nothing since. Oliver back on.. take note of what Price says about him on the day.
8. Casque: Maiden winner two back. Ran fairly last start at big odds behind Invincible Al. Has to improve but has shown top ability.
9. Tattoo You: Hasn’t been able to even win a maiden yet. No thanks.
Comments: A nice race today with some very progressive types. Invincible Al is well enough in at the weights and rates to win off a better ride here today. The main threat looks to be Barthelona while Strictly Legit and If Not Now When can both be expected to run well.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Invincible Al and Barthelona to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1000m – Arbroath Handicap
1. Thermal Current: Hasn’t won since a soft 6 track win at Swan Hill two preps back. Last prep showed very little. First up down the straight was very poor in harder company… hard to suggest but watch for late backing from this stable to indicate something different.
2. Divine Ten: Import from Sha Tin. Top class horse at his very best with a close 2nd to Aerovolocity on the record. Hasn’t seen the track for 853 days a big concern but D Oliver has been keen to take this ride all along and it suggests the horse is going more than well enough to win this.
3. General Truce: Loves this track. Was a very good run 4th last start at Moonee Valley over the 1000m coming off a few average runs. Has to improve to win this though.
4. Beau Rada: A moral beaten last start at Moonee Valley held up for runs. Two back at Flemington was well backed off a forgive run. Looks to be going well enough to win.
5. Grane: Poor last start at Moonee Valley and not a surprise. Better suited down the straight and ran very well two back when probably should have won held up for runs. Has ability.
6. Bullpit: Hasn’t been going well enough to consider even with Blinkers on for the first time at a track he likes.
8. Super Fun: Got quite a few wins on the board over the border last prep on the softer tracks. Certainly a horse limited by grades but will run a nice race here.
9. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Disappointing last start at Moonee Valley. Best around a turn and in easier class than this for mine.
Comments: Two clear standouts on my ratings in Divine Ten and Beau Rada… but at the prices, I don’;t have the confidence levels to be betting here. Grane is the ‘overs’ in the race and doesn’t deserve to be the outsider.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back both Beau Rada and Divine Ten.
Flemington Race 6 – 2500m – Rain Lover Handicap
1. Lucky Lucky Lucky: McEvoy runner that isn’t here to run second. Two runs in to get the fitness going and straight up to the 2500m suitable distance. Won at course over 2800m in Open class last prep and goes well here. Will get back in the run and with the 3kg claim finds himself well in at the weights.
2. Hale Soriano: Well backed late last start suggesting he is coming into fitness. Ran nicely the past two starts fairly beaten both times 5th by lengths. Has to improve but as we know he has the ability to do so… step back to 2500m a query for mine though as the horse should get better over further.
3. Soviet Courage: Waller runner who won two back at Rosehill from out the back in a solidly run 2400m race. Fairly beaten last start on Heavy and will appreciate the step back in class and to a firmer track. Has to improve onwards but obviously is good enough.
6. Oncidium Ruler: Very consistent horse. Got a dream run last start at Sandown over the 2400m and got the win, but without the perfect ride he may have been claimed late. For mine, he didn’t get the distance last start to the ability needed to measure up and win this race well.
7. Sir Laszlo: Weir runner that hasn’t placed in five runs this prep including last start when favourite over in Morphetville last start over 2500m. Has to improve onwards and upwards here to measure up.
8. Renew: Hasn’t won since late 2014 over 3200m. Three runs this prep and while he actually ran quite well two back at Morphetville in easier grade over 2000m, his last start run was well below what is needed here. Has the ability.
10. Double Bluff: Laing runner that hasn’t won since late 2014 in the UK. Five runs this prep and hasn’t gone close. No real excuses for mine last start and I couldn’t be near him here.
11. Blue Jangles: Couldn’t place in BM-64 grade last start and hasn’t gone close in higher than BM-64 grade in the past. No thanks.
12. Forever True: Failed to get the win over a similar distance the past two starts in BM-64 grade. Another step up required here.
Comments: Soviet Courage gets the dream run here today from the onside barrier.. expect Oliver just to roll him out, slot over outside the leader Blue Jangles with a medium tempo expected. He has the ability on the two back run just to settle, be given an easy time and just keep staying on strongly from the 500m and be very hard to get past. Keen as mustard with Lucky Lucky Lucky (out the back) the main threat on my ratings.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 8
Strategy: Soviet Courage – 1.5 units to win 2 units to place @ $4.8/$1.75
Flemington Race 7 – 1400m – Chester Manifold Stakes
2. Lord Aspen: Got the win at course and distance three runs back beating Rough Justice. Two runs back was a very poor run and pulled up lame. Returned to form last start over the 1200m down the straight when ran very well 4th behind Odyssey Moon. Back up to 1400m is ideal and barrier will see him just off the speed in the ideal spot.
3. Tonopah: Two solid wins last prep with Open and Group 3 class success in Adelaide, but didn’t place the four runs in Victoria. First up run wasn’t bad over the unsuitable 1200m when ran home nicely beaten 3L. Has to improve onwards and upwards here but up to 1400m will run much better.
4. Grande Rosso: Good win two back at Pakenham over the 1400m beating Burning Front who has come out and won well since. Last start just too short over the 1200m but still ran well off a slow pace race and the winner put in some very solid sectionals. Back up to 1400m today.. awkward barrier will mean he is further back than wanted, but even so, he has the ability to win this.
5. Sold for Song: Measured up the past few preps in FM grade solidly enough. First up at Eagle Farm ran a very big race from the back behind Kinshachi for 2nd over the 1200m. Step up to 1400m and the long Flemington straight are both ideal. Never won on a Good track but clearly has gone close enough when it has mattered. Looks a nice price.
6. Airalign: Three starts for three wins this prep. Won very well from on speed last start at Sandown in easier grade with the low weight. Similar weight today and will be very hard to run down.
7. Zebrinz: Hasn’t won in more than a year and didn’t exactly set the world on fire at the end of last prep or at the very start of it. Never placed first up.
8. Divine Mr Artie: Disappointing run 5th last start at Flemington up in class but not a real surprise to alot of us. Up to 1400m is suitable today and well down in the weights. Has to be respected.
9. Zupacharged: Ran home very well from the back first up over the 1100m down the straight third. Up to 1400m looks ideal and he is going nicely enough to consider.
10. Top Me Up: Absolutely destroyed the field last start at Sandown from out the front when allowed to simply control the speed, settle, run along at his own pace and go away with it. Well down in weights and up in class. Respect.
11. Hell on Earth: Good win three back but two runs since have only been fair. Big step up in class and has to improve onwards.
12. Tuff Host: Best runs in the past have been off super solid tempos and we may just get that today. Didn’t show anything first up which isn’t a surprise.. can run well with the speed on… but certainly up against it here.
Comments: Have to go wide in the Quaddie leg here with solid amounts of value in what may be a very short leg for a few. Divine Mr Artie rates very well up in distance here from the ideal draw and has to be backed at the price on offer. The main threat looks to be Sold for Song.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11
Strategy: Divine Mr Artie 1 unit @ $4.00.
Flemington Race 8 – 2000m – Craftsman Handicap
1. Master of Arts: Ran home nicely last start over the 1700m distance at Caulfield in similar grade behind Kenjorwood. Up to 2000m is ideal today and he gets better with further distance. Nicely enough weighted but the barrier is a concern.
2. Chance to Dance: Out the back first up in a race where the two winners streeted the rest (both from on speed). Chance to Dance went out the back and was never a chance when giving the first and second placed horses 8 lengths 400m into the race. Big concern is that Extra Zero ran past him.
3. Goldstream: Every possible chance first up at Flemington but found nothing at all. Similar grade and hard to see the improvement needed.
4. Swacadelic: A month between runs after pulling up lame when very well backed behind Pilote Dessai at Pakenham. Not convinced the step back to 2000m is ideal for him.
5. Flying Light: Very solid win two back holding off Gallic Chieftain and then last start improved onwards to beat a nice field at course and distance. Still very well weighted here and will be hard to get past.
7. Kourkam: Every chance last start behind Flying Light at this course and distance. Down 3kg today with the claims, but even so, he will need to find another gear from this barrier.
8. Master Zephyr: Poorly weighted today actually giving Flying Light 1kg for a 0.8L defeat last start at course and distance. Better barrier today for a better run, but he is deep into a prep and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of upside to improve past Flying Light.
9. Cadillac Mountain: A moral beaten according to a few people at the bool last Sunday. Up to 2000m today is ideal and while he hasn’t been producing since late 2015, he may just be back to his best which is good enough to feature here.
10. Dandy Gent: Disappointing run first up. Been no where near a win since the previous prep. Hard to suggest.
12. Prima: Good win last start at Moonee Valley stealing it from out the front with a brilliant ride. Huge step up in class and not very well weighted against Flying Light for defeat two runs back.
13. Galaxy Raider: Becoming a costly horse for punters. Fairly beaten last start at Moonee Valley behind Prima. Previous two runs beaten as a short priced favourite. Certainly a nice horse and will be better suited to Flemington, but is he good enough to beat all these at the weights?
14. McNulty: Old mate went back to keep country grade to run 2nd last start. Better at the picnics.
Comments: Wide open staying race. Master of Arts, Flying Light and Galaxy Raider look the main ‘chances’ here, but there is only one horse I could be on with the consistency of the recent runs combined with the class edge – that is Flying Light.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 13
Strategy: Flying Light – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7/$2.45
Flemington Race 9 – 1100m – Tauto Handicap
1. Kirani: Horrible last prep 2nd last, 2nd last and last in all three runs. Previous to that beaten 14L and 5.1L. Was a very good horse before that on good tracks but it’s impossible to know what to make of him here. His best is good enough but yikes, will it be shown?
2. Stellar Collision: Every chance the past two starts but has simply been well below his best from previous preps. Too far back last start at Moonee Valley… can improve here i’d suggest.
3. I’m Ablaze: Horrible ride last start and Newitt jumps back on. Ran nicely down the straight in much harder grade two back. Can run well here.
4. Armada: Disappointing last start after the run down the straight two back. Similar grade and can improve onwards.
5. Monkstone: Surprised last prep with a win over the 1400m distance. Never placed at this track in the past and this class looks beyond him.
6. Rocket Tommy: BM-70 winner last start at Sandown in a very impressive time. Up to 1100m suitable enough and clearly he has the ability to run well here on recent runs.
7. Domesday Warrior: Group 3 6th last start at course down the straight. Lost a plate on that occasion and is actually down in the weights here. Respect.
8. Rich Charm: 3YO winner down the straight and ran nicely first up at Sandown 3rd behind the form horse in Crystal Dreamer. Looks well suited up in distance down the straight staying at this course. Would be better suited by more rain is the only query.
9. Quarck: Bm-64 winner second up at Geelong before being significantly beaten last start at Moonee Valley. Better than that run but even so looks out of place here.
10. Invincible Heart: Mick Price runner and Oliver takes the ride. Two preps back was a 3Y-SWP winner down the straight. Last prep only run was a good 4th at Caulfield in similar grade. Has ability and will run very well.
12. Wall Street Wolf: A horse with an absolute X Factor when the horse turns up. Hard horse to catch but expected to run well down the straight again today.
13. Gangnam Style: Ran very well first up at Moonee Valley behind Lady Esprit in easier grade. Never ran at this track a big concern first time today.
14. Tyrannize: Hard horse to catch. Up in class after running well 2nd at Sale but has run very well here at this course and distance in the past.
15. Little Indian: Strong win last start down the straight at course over 1000m and the sectionals late were delicious. Big chance to improve onwards again.
16. Petrov: CL2 winner last start. Good run 5th behind SOverign Duke the previous run. Has some ability.
Comments: Another wide open race to end the day. It’s hard to drop off Little Indian here on the Each-Way.. this is a horse with an explosive final 400m that will be suited by the distance increase today.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8, 15
Strategy: Little Indian E/W
Gold Coast Race 1 – 1200m – Pacific Fair Magic Millions Maiden Plate
*No Runner by Runner analysis for this race*
Dortmund will be the play here.
Comments: I can’t break down these maidens especially with the times between runs and all of the trials. I’ll simply give you a pick especially for the UBET promo with money back 2nd/3rd. I can’t pick any horse here outside of Dortmund. The horse fits every bill for me here and will be on speed. Regimental Force looks the horse to follow at odds if you want to go wider, but Dortmund is a very solid promo play.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Dortmund to win
Gold Coast Race 2 – 1200m – Sky Thoroughbred Central Magic Millions Country Cup
1. Irish Constabulary: One of four real key chances in this race today. Very nice runs leading in on Good and heavy tracks and 2L 2nd to Hidden Pearl last prep is more than good enough to be winning. Weighted accordingly – tricky barrier.
2. Spur Le Jouer: Nice win two back over 1400m in easier class, but i do have queries over that race form. Well beaten last start and the CL5 run three back was okay. Has some ability but others preferred.
3. Queen Tara: CL4 winner last start in easier grade than this, but the time was sound on the day from out the front. Has been backed into favourite but really needs to repeat that run here.
4. Credit Card Miss: Comes into this today off some solid runs at Warwick Farm and in similar ‘grade’. Certainly has shown ability and maps nicely.
5. Mishani El Lobo: Good heavy track win last start coming off some okay Ipswich form. Has ability and is going the right way this prep. Barrier only issue.
6. Red Scarlet: Won three in a row and has been doing his very best work over further than this in 1400m races. Back to 1200m but no issues on my ratings for that. Go well here.
7. Upstart: First up run was a solid lead in to this with a good 2nd behind Your Way. Best runs will see him measure up and in with a chance with 200m to go.
8. Naranja: Not the worst run first up but was clearly beaten on the day. Previous prep didn’t win outside of a BM-65. Has to improve on form lines in this grade.
9. Jadedfox: FM-CL2 winner first up in a nice time before going back to 1000m last start and running well at Eagle Farm in CL4 class 5th behind All Troops. Looks suited here today
10. Lomazzo: Horrible first up and no abnormalities found. Couldn’t win CL1’s last prep is a big concern.
11. All My Angels: Very well beaten the past four runs is a massive issue having run very well a few runs before that in this prep. Best runs would have him a length short of winning.
12. Little Shocker: Name kinda says it all. Not good enough on my ratings.
13. Rockette Rocket: Shown enough ability to be considered with CL6 placings in the past. I couldn’t bet to win but place price looks okay.
14. Opinionated: FM-CL1 winner three back but failed to fire in a FM-Cl2 last start. Others preferred on form.
15. Poncherello: Poor first up in much easier. Last prep didn’t show me enough to consider here.
16. Triple Jeopardy: CL4 winner three back. Disappointing last start. Best runs have him in with a chance here.
Comments: I can’t entertain the price on Queen Tara here. Irish Constabulary with a very good ride is a nice price here and i’m happy to take the risk based on the horses consistency and ability from an on speed position.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Irish Constabulary E/W
Gold Coast Race 3 – 1300m – UBET Magic Millions QTIS Open
1. Miss Cover Girl: Group 1 winner and has failed to win since. Top weight hurts her chances especially from the barrier.
2. Jumbo Prince: Looked to have a load of ability last prep but over much further. Take on here.
3. Steel Zip: Old mate may be 9 years old but he is still able to win races. Huge run 2nd first up before an only average run last start. Has to improve onwards but his best is more than good enough.
4. Pepperano: Race favourite and is a very consistent type with three wins and three seconds this prep. CLose 2nd last start behind Khaleesi in nice type at Doomben over 1200m. Good barrier today and every chance they try and lead here.
5. Madotti: Every chance last start 2nd behind Egyptian Symbol. Previous starts found a few too good each time apart from a low FMB-78 grade race. Has to improve but does have ability.
6. In His Stride: BM-85 winner two back before failing to fire last start at Eagle Farm. Very best is still a step below these.
7. Siegfried: Sensational run first up at Doomben when smashed the clock and recorded a career peak run. Gets in really well at the weights with just 54kg today and from barrier 6 will sit just off the leaders or push them around today. Huge chance.
8. Glendara: CL5 win three back and only just won on the day in much easier grade. Last two starts had the chances and just not good enough. Take on.
9. Secret Trail: Awkward barrier today but should get a midfield position today. Has a very solid final 400m, much faster than any other horse in the race on previous ability. Was fairly disappointing last start for mine and I can’t have her.
10. Abu Ben Adam: Shouldn’t be in this race.
11. Mister Booze: Beaten 120 lengths the past four runs. On his best runs in the past he is still many lengths below this level.
12. Powerful Saga: Couldn’t win a CL4 last start.
13. Havasay: Beaten last start in a CL6 race and CL3 the run before.. but that CL6 loss last start was behind Siegfried. On previous runs when placed in Group 3 company he has the ability but has to improve today on past three runs.
14. Rising Luck: BM-75 7.9L 8th, CL4 4.3L 2nd the past two runs finishing last prep. Take on here.
15. Shotacross the Bow: Should run close to last on previous prep and this preps form.
16. My Girl Hayley: Talented mare who gets in well at the weights here. I would have wanted to see her win last start at Doomben in easier FM-CL6 grade to be winning here personally but she can’t be discounted from the barrier.
17. Our Story: Not the worst runner here. Has gone okay at 3YO grade but isn’t winning here.
18. Social Vampire: Doesn’t suck as much as a few others, but his best runs in the past were on wetter tracks. Two runs this prep are well below what’s needed to place here.
19. Powerful Flash: Maiden winner last start. Taking the piss even nominating here.
Comments: The first up run of Siegfried was the real deal at Doomben and with three weeks between runs this is the ideal step up in distance to see him sit off the leaders and finish off over the top solidly. We are getting an amazingly great price and Pepperano looks the main threat to me, but is under the correct odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Siegfried – 1 unit Each-Way @ $8.5/$3.10
Gold Coast Race 4 – 2200m – Moet & Chandon Magic Millions Trophy
1. Stratum Star: Top weight off a WFA-G1 win up to a distance the horse in my opinion doesn’t get with ease. Maps well but has to over come this big weight and needs a perfect ride.
2. Centre Pivot: Four runs this prep and failed to place on all attempts. Last start very disappointing 5th at Randwick. Has to improve onwards and upwards here.
3. Boom Time: Very strong win last start proving he is an out and out stayer. Previous runs were as impressive also. Very well weighted off 54kg here and will have no issues with the track, with the distance or with the speed. Good horse. Expect them to lead.
4. Col ‘n’ Lil: Will be pushing forward today to sit just off the leaders after a very nice win last start over High Church at this distance at Eagle Farm. Certainly has ability and measures right up to this class today.
5. Feltre: Every chance last start when fairly beaten behind Col N Lil. Even at his best on past runs he has to find a length or two to beat these.
6. Outraged: Horrible all four runs this prep. Best runs in the past are still a class or two below this level. Take on.
7. Cramming: Honest horse but clearly is not up to this grade of race. Hasn’t won in yonks and last win was over Outraged.
8. Rustic Melody: Three runs this prep and beaten badly in BM-76 grade all three runs. Not here.
9. San Telmo: Two runs this prep and beaten favourite both times. Big step up in grade again here but does have ability on what he has shown in the past. Barrier makes it very hard to consider for mine.
10. Meteorologist: Hasn’t won in the last 9 starts in easier grades of races than this. Very poor the past two starts. Hard to suggest.
11. Payroll: Clearly on her best she would be a force to be reckoned with today.. but on the past two runs there is no sign of that class being shown today. Has the best turn of foot in the race.. tough from the barrier.
12. Annaman: Just have to ignore he went around last start and rate on the previous runs. Clearly goes well over these distance but just 1 win from 12 starts at distance and never won in this class a query today. Barrier doesn’t help chances… clearly has the class to win.
13. Show Command: Toowoomba wins in CL-2 and BM-70 straight up to this. Hugely outclassed today.
14. Bold Heart: Not the worst horse in the race but has been running in much easier levels of class and never run at distance.
15. Larebil: CL winner two of the last 3 starts before saddle slipped last start. Has to find lengths to win this but could place at odds.
16. Gypsy Miss: May very well be one of the forgotten runners of the field after some very nice form leading into this. Looks to want the distance today and from a nice barrier maps to sit midfield. Don’t dismiss.
17. Excitement Levels: Would attempt to push for the lead if gets a run. Horrible form. Shouldn’t be in the race.
Comments: Boom Time maps to have the IDEAL run today with no real excuses. Stratum Star is also hard to dismiss as the main rival in the race. At the long odds, Gypsy Miss looks to be a big chance in the race.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Boom Time – 4 units @ $3.30 to win.
Gold Coast Race 5 – 1300m – It’s Live! In Queensland Magic Millions Fillies & Mares
1. Flippant: Quality horse based on the very strong win two back at Flemington, but from barrier 21 she gets a very awkward run today and has been an inconsistent horse. Not for me here.
2. I Am Zelady: Not good at all first up and her runs last prep had a lot to desire, but her best run winning this race last year was certainly a career peak. Maps perfectly and the speed will be on as wanted. Hard to ignore but also hard to be overly excited about backing.
3. Egyptian Symbol: Comes into this race with consistent form lines. Won a very easy race last start after a nice enough 5th at Flemington the start prior. Rates well enough from a very good barrier.
4. Hijack Hussy: Surprise winner last start at Flemington after some ‘average’ at best runs before that. Her best still looks a step below what is required here but she is going the right way about it.
5. Catch a Fire: Very hard horse to catch, but on her day, she more than has the ability to put this race away. The barrier will be her issue. Word is she is absolutely flying at the moment. Will be wide throughout but probably finds cover. Seen worse $34-1 chances!
6. Kinshachi: Well rated Godolphin horse that has won three in a row. Beat a nice type last start in Sold for Song and rates well again from the inside barrier.
8. Elle Lou: Out the back first up when ran home solidly but never exactly got close to the win in easier grade. Best runs are still steps below this.
9. Private Secretary: A frustrating horse to follow at times. Just missed for us at the Flemington carnival at huge odds when ridden perfectly down the straight. Up to this distance no issue, but she gets a long way back and runs on well. Huge task being asked from barrier 17 again.
10. Fiftyshadesofgrey: Hasn’t gone close in 10+ runs. Take on here.
11. Pioneering: Solid enough run first up over the 1200m but has every chance to win that race. Previous preps have seen her beaten out in easier races. Not for me.
12. Dee Nine Elle: Last prep put in some good runs behind Pioneering on the wet tracks. Two runs this prep for a close 0.1L win and a disappointing 6th. Not for me here.
13. Notonyourlife: Maps to get very far back. Ran home nicely behind Kinshachi last start but from the barrier will be very awkwardly placed in the run.
14. Denpurr: Hard horse to catch. First two runs this prep were obviously very good, but the next two starts saw her well beaten. Not convinced she can go well enough in this grade to win.
15. Frill Seeking: Doesn’t win often but she looks a type to consider here based on previous best runs. First up was quite a nice runf rom on speed and will take big improvement 2nd up today. Barrier the big issue.
16. Bidii Babe: Solid enough run heading into this behind Kinshachi. Very good barrier today and maps nicely, but she has to find a length or so to be a serious winning chance.
17. Star of Night: Couldn’t win a FM-CL6 heading into this which is a concern. Has some ability for sure, but not in this grade for mine.
18. Magic Alibi: BM-85 3rd heading into this after 3rd in FMB-78. Finished off strongly but gets too far back with her ability levels to be a real contender.
19. Thelittleracketeer: Another horse that comes into this with poor form lines that are hard to consider holding up here.
20. Alter Call: Disappointing to see her deep down the emergency list as she would be right in the finish in this race event from the barrier.
21. Miss Kindilian: Well outclassed here on two previous runs this prep.
Comments: Egyptian Symbol is well under the correct odds for mine in this race today while the same can be said for Private Secretary who will get simply too far back for me to consider. I have to opt with two double figure odds runners from inside barriers here on their true best potential.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back both Kinshachi and I Am Zelady
Gold Coast Race 6 – 1400m – Woodford Reserve Magic Millions Cup
1. Lucky Hussler: Old mate Lucky Hussler has been lumped with a huge weight today, but his first up form and 1400m form is top class. Won here last year over the 1400m with 60.5kg. Has clearly been set for this to be the grand final again and finished off last prep with a WFA-G3 win. Barrier the only issue.
2. Most Important: Maps very well from barrier 6 to sit just off the speed. Won three in a row beating some nice enough types and finds himself well in at the weights. Looks very well suited here today especially if they run it along out front.
3. Hopfgarten: Maps to sit 3/4 back in the pack coming into this with six runs this prep for 0 wins. Has the ability and is a chance at the weights.
5. Sir Moments: Hasn’t gone close to placing the past two preps. Previous preps was a nice type. Not for me.
6. Strawberry Boy: Doesn’t win often or out of turn. First up run was well beaten over the 1200m. Up to 1400m but last win was over 1600m. Goes well at track but never won here and has to improve. Looks the leader.
7. Snippets Land: Two runs this prep and beaten fairly both attempts even though he went close. Best runs in the past still look a few lengths short of what is needed to win this.
8. Bachman: Three runs this prep yet has failed to fire and win on all three occasions. Stays at the 1400m and gets in well at the weights. Has won at the track in the past and has the ability to back that up here.
9. Testashadow: Second last start before a break behind Sea Red over 1600m. Runs over 1400m have been solid without breaking the clock. Others preferred.
10. Snoopy: Maps well here on speed with a low weight today. Won two in a row in nice times before a less genuine tempo but still a very good run last start 2nd to Ecuador. Can go better here.
11. Off The Rails: Fairly beaten first up behind Snoopy and Ecuador. Best runs in the past have been over further and barrier 21 doesn’t help here.
12. Loyalty Man: Up from Melbourne having won his last two runs on the way beating some okay types. Back to 1400m today though the only negative. Can run well.
13. Baligari: Going terrible this prep and even his very best runs from the past aren’t good enough to win this.
14. The lliad: Best runs in the past have been over further than this. Couldn’t have here.
15. Perfect Dare: Two runs heading in couldn’t score in BM-83 and BM-85 grade. Not up to this grade on past runs.
17. Brewery: Not a terrible run last start 2nd at Gold Coast but clearly a few class levels below this.
18. Monsieur Gustave: Ran okay enough heading into this behind Most Important but on times there are simply a few too good.
19. We’re Sure: Disappointing run first up at Rosehill. Hard to suggest even on best form.
20. Choice we Had: An improving type that has constantly run well this prep. Have to go to another level to actually win here though.
21. Skytrek: CL3 winner. Outclassed in this grade.
Comments: Opening up early with a wide Quaddie leg, but my two clear top picks here are Most Important and Snoopy. Happy to be betting both these runners and betting around Lucky Hussler from the barrier.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 10, 12
Strategy: Most Important – 1.5 units @ $4.00. Snoopy – 0.5 units @ $13.
Gold Coast Race 7 – 1400m – Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Guineas
1. Winning Rupert: He is lengths better than any other runner here today. From a very positive barrier he will be leading, he will be putting the top sectionals into the race in the early, mid and late stages and he just won’t be beat. The real deal.
2. Global Glamour: The only threat to Winning Rupert has drawn a horrible barrier – the direct outside! Global Glamour is a very good horse, no doubt about it, but GG will need to work hard from that barrier to sit on speed and will need to out tough Rupert to win this.
3. Crack me Up: Smashed by Winning RUpert the last two starts and hard to see the improvement. Not liked to place.
5. Dam Ready: Well out of his class here behind Winning Rupert and Global Glamour but there is still top 5 up for grabs and he is more than good enough from a very positive barrier to pinch third.
6. Arbietsam: 3.3L win last start beating some very average types at Warwick Farm. Couldn’t consider.
7. Mr Markou: Another that rates on it’s very best runs to be a chance to place but can’t compete against the top two.
8. Flying Jess: G3 winner as a 2YO. Shown nothing worth considering all this prep. No thanks.
9. Eckstein: Won four in a row which is certainly not easy to do. Good open class win at course over 1200m last start. Looks a very good type on the up, but not good enough to contest for a win here. Place chance.
10. Candika: 0.2L 2nd to Eckstein two back. Previous preps has been 1L off a G2 win. Every chance last start but simply not good enough to beat Winning Rupert. Has to improve to place.
11. Faraway town: One of the horses with top class ability with Group 1 placings in the past. Hasn’t shown me enough this prep to suggest at all and i’d take the horse on to place.
12. River Racer: Ran a sensational race 2nd to Winning Rupert last start and clearly beat the rest of them on the day. Good barrier and well in at the weights and all. Looks a great place chance.
13. Rare Occurrence: CL2 winner last start. Well beaten the previous three starts by much better types. Not here.
14. Tiyatrolani: Been running quite well recently beaten by Eckstein and Winning Rupert in the past two starts. Has to improve to place.
15. Heart Skipt a Beat: 2YO Group 1 placed last prep behind Sacred Elixir. First up well beaten in BM-75 grade. Best over further.
16. Miss Wonderland: She is a nice type and won well second up at Flemington. Big step up in grade here and while she has ability, she isn’t anything better than a top 3-5 chance.
17. Pipeline: Rosehill winner first up in much easier. Beaten favourite last start. Not up to this grade.
18. Billy the Kid: Surprisingly well suited compared to many others here today. Good run 3rd last start behind Winning Rupert and previous win was solid. Best on softer.
19. Alter Call: Nice enough win at Caulfield last start. Will be on speed from the inside barrier and kicking on strongly. First time up to this distance a concern. Place chance.
20. Volpino: 3YO winner over 1600m+. Best form from the past is over further, but he is more than handy enough to run a good race.
21. Spending to Win: Lightly raced SNowden Colt. Not too poorly in here today but lengths behind the winners.
Comments: Winning Rupert will back up his name today and simply just win. The value in the race is in the form of River Racer who at $5.10 to place is a massively solid bet.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 12
Strategy: River Racer – 1 unit @ $5.10 to place.
Gold Coast Race 8 – 1200m – Jeep Magic Millions 2YO Classic
1. Ours to Keep: Drawn beautifully in barrier 4 today to get a sit just off the leaders. Three starts for three wins and rates very well as the ‘third best horse’ heading into the race… but will get the absolute charmed run. Can win.
2. Goodfella: G3 2nd last start fairly beaten behind Ours to Keep. Poor barrier and will be going back. Tough ask here.
3. Bring It Home Pop: Solid win two back before fairly beaten last start behind Ours to Keep. Has solid form lines but will need to do a load of work from the barrier to get a solid position.
4. Chauffeur: 2YO winner first up before running into From Within. Has solid ratings coming into this but it is hard to see him getting the win today on form. Could place.
5. Falconic: 2YO-SWP winner last start after a solid 3rd behind Chauffeur the run prior. Has some ability but does look a bit outclassed here right now.
6. Saxton Rock: Couldn’t win a CL1 last start as favourite on Heavy. 2YO winner previous runs. Back to firmer today but hard to see it here.
7. Arrestar: Same form lines as Saxton Rock with some good ratings but well beaten last start on Heavy track. Hard to suggest.
8. Madeenaty: Hayes runner that measured up in 2YO grade. Comes into the race around 4th highest rated and may just have improvement up in distance again. Will be pushing to be on speed also.
9. Champ Elect: Two starts two wins but this is a massive ask today to even place. Has to improve lengths again.
10. Invincible Star: First up today after a very easy solid win by 2.3L last prep down the Flemington straight. This horse has untapped potential and it will be interesting to see what she shows here. Blowout chance.
11. Houtzen: Sensational winner the past two starts proving just how good she really is. Horrible barrier drawn in 21 today though and she will need to spend the petrol tickets early to get over to lead. One of the top two to beat.
12. Madame Moustache: 2YO winner two back. First up well beaten by Madennaty. Can’t see a win here.
13. From Within: Sensational win first up at Canterbury when not even ridden out. Got a very clean lead and was allowed to settle after jumping well, but that settling won’t exactly happen today. Was never shown the whip last start and is for mine certainly a query when she will be asked to show her best. Certainly a very good horse.
14. Real Princess: Terrible form lines on the two runs this prep. Can’t win.
15. Colosimo: 2YO winner but the time of that race is very questionable. Well beaten last start shows me all i need to see.
16. Cellargirl: Handy 2YO win first up beating a nice type in Bring It Home Pop before being slow out and not getting the easiest of runs last start. Looks to have improvement to show here from a good barrier.
17. Tiara Star: Maiden only winner. Fairly beaten other starts by horses in this race. Not for me.
18. Invader: Snowden runner who finished off very well behind From Within last start. Raw type that is probably looking for further. Has ability.
19. Imaginalthepeople: 800m maiden winner and I can’t suggest this.
20. Zukaz: Two runs in the past and just simply can’t rate the horse here.
21. Gwapo: Should run last.
Comments: Ours to Keep, Madeenaty, Houtzen, From Within and Cellargirl are the horses that standout to me today. Knowing how this race is going to be run and won, I have to side with Houtzen while Cellargirl is the clear value pick.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 8, 11, 13, 16
Strategy: Back both Houtzen and Cellargirl.
Gold Coast Race 9 – 1200m – Myer Magic Millions Sprint
1. Charlie Boy: Old mate is more than good enough to win this race today based on previous starts. Last start win in a Group 3, this is a similar grade of race and this horse always goes well first up over these distances. Loves a Good track and will be mid-field throughout.
2. Dothraki: Doesn’t win often.. or ever if you are backing it. Not terrible last prep but always seems to find a few too good. Awkward barrier today but does rate well enough to win this.
3. Didntcostalot: Two horrible runs this prep. Finished off last prep running second in a WFA-G2! Hard to suggest.
4. Target in Sight: Group 3 winner. Went close last prep but didn’t get on the board. Goes well first up and is first up here certainly aimed at this race. Barrier 1 will certainly need to be ridden for luck and will need a load of it.
5. Into the Red: Group 3 winner but didn’t beat too much that day on a soft track. Back to dryer here where 16 runs for 1 win on a good track. Not going too well either this prep.
6. Prompt Return: Big step up in class again here for this classy gelding. Won two of his last three and back up to 1200m is positive. Rates very well here but will need a great ride from an awkward barrier to get a good spot.
7. Husson Eagle: Horrible the past two starts from out the back. First up ran and won very very well and won here last year having been targeted at this race. Loves this track. Take on if you dare, looks a big price.
8. Straturbo: Won last start in a ‘fair’ time but wasn’t exactly the most classy race i’ve seen in a while. Certainly a horse with nice ability but this looks a step beyond him at this stage of his career.
9. Wicked Intent: Nice enough type. First two runs this prep were good enough to measure up here while just ignore last start.
10. Le Cordon Bleu: A horse with a very solid turn of foot. Huge win last start from out the back at Canterbury and looks to have a load of ability. If Reith can get him to sit and settle midfield he will be very hard to hold out.
11. Real Good: Not sure he is named as well as you may think. He is a good type but on two runs this prep I couldn’t suggest.
12. Casual Choice: Well beaten both runs this prep. Previous preps wins are still well below what is needed here.
13. Murt the Flirt: Obviously a horse with ability. Stupid ride last start and will be closer to the speed here. Has to improve and never really measured up to this level.
14. Hidden Pearl: Crushed them last start over the 1000m first up at Eagle Farm. Up to 1200m should be suitable today and her very best runs would see her hard to get past.
16. Viddora: Comes into this with some very solid form lines and ran home nicely for 2nd last start. Up to 1200m looks ideal on the first up run, but she has never won or placed at the distance is a query.
17. War Jet: Couldn’t suggest him to place on current form. No thanks.
18. Upstart Pride: Solid enough runs last prep but two runs this prep well below what is needed to even place here.
19. Monsieur Gustave: Handy enough horse that has run well this prep and last prep, but even so, this is a big step up in class.
Comments: You have to go wide in this leg of the Quaddie late in the day due to the jackpot and the strength of this final race.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 14, 16
Strategy: Back Hidden Pearl and Le Cordon Bleu
