Welcome to The Profits preview for Dubai World Cup at Meydan on 25 March 2017. It doesn’t feel like a year has past since we were on track watching Buffering conquer the world, but the Dubai World Cup is around and upon us again so it must be so. This is a meeting that always runs quite close to form and there are two very confident bets on the card while there is one value bet I feel will be suited back to the straight track. I’ll be on twitter following the action all night as always and look forward to some sensational racing. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Meydan Race 4 – Thunder Snow – 4 units @ $3.10 to win
Next Best Bet
Meydan Race 1 – North America – 2 units @ $2.87 to win
Other Bet
Meydan Race 6 – Not Listenin’ToMe – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.00
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Meydan Race 1
Two very clear standouts in this race and the market has it rated accordingly with North America and Sharp Azteca well ahead of the rest of the runners in the market.
North America has one from maiden winner to Group 3 winner this prep over the 1060m from 4 runs.. and he won by 8L, 8.8L, 1.3L and 7L last start in Group 3 at course and distance. Has a sharp turn of foot and is settled here.
Sharp Azteca has two hot formline runs coming into this. Won very easy last start with a low weight over in the USA in Group 2 company but didn’t go through the line line a top class 1600m horse for mine. Will be on speed and has a high cruising speed… but if they decide not to roll it along strongly then I get the feeling North America will out sprint him and i’m not convinced he can tough it out either.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: North America – 2 units @ $2.87 to win
Meydan Race 3
Vazirabad’s last 3 runs have been well below the horses peak runs in the past and I really think the horse is too short in the market against a nice even bunch of runners. On his best, old mate Big Orange could run well and go close, but the past 3 runs wouldn’t get him a win here. Heartbreak city was horrible over the jumps recently but the past two runs on the flat would obviously be good enough to compete here. Beautiful Romance is the horse with a big upside on the last two runs returning to form and could very well be the winner here.
I have to side with Beautiful Romance at the strong E/W price.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Beautiful Romance E/W
Meydan Race 4
A nice race on paper with several ‘chances’ with Group 1 form under their belts, but the hard to ignore horse and favourite is Thunder Snow. On ratings, Thunder Snow has gone 5 points above anything any other runner has run, a significant distance heading into this. Lancaster Bomber recorded some solid ratings the past two starts and looks a main rival first up today.
Master of Plan put in a very strong performance two back but failed to put in anything near as good last start in easier. Has clearly shown some ability and has a big + next to his rating for improvement to come.
The Japanese horse for mine in Epicharis looks the main danger today after two solid listed wins with potential improvement to come.
When all is said and done, Thunder Snow has the perfect recipe for success here. The horse has been in the country long enough. Won a French Group 1 by 5 lengths and has had a run here already in Dubai winning by 5.8L. Very keen.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Thunder Snow – 4 units @ $3.10 to win
Meydan Race 5
Three clear standouts in the sprint here.
Ertijaal is the favourite and hardest to beat. Last start ran a personal best rating that would win this today and it had improvement as well. Broke 56 seconds. Only query today is up to 1200m as his very best has been over the 1000m.
Limato‘s run two back in France winning the Group 1 over 1400m was as good as the four back win in the UK over 1200m with 60kg. Went over to the USA at end of the prep and failed to fire over the 1600m. First up here is certainly a query but is well suited to 1200m.
Amazing Kids two back won well over in Hong Kong over the 1000m but was fairly beaten over the 1200m last start. The two back run would have him going close.
I have Ertijaal and Limato over the 1200m very even on the ratings so at the prices, I’d have to go with Limato.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Limato to win
Meydan Race 6
One of the widest open races of the day Not Listenenin’ToMe hasn’t been at his peak the past four runs but 5 back he ran a race that would simply put this field away and he is big odds. At $18.5/$4.4 he would be the way i played.
Mind Your Biscuits for mine is a query at the distance to find the very best runs and form needed. Cool Cowboy is short in the markets for the form I suggest. I’d much rather say Muarrab who has been poor as of late, but has recorded to runs good enough to beat them here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Not Listenin’ToMe – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/5.00
Meydan Race 7
Zarak has adapted well to arriving in Dubai with a 2000m win first up last month. It was a strong form run and it shows the horse will be well competitive here and hard to beat.
The main rivals are fairly clear in the market with the top 4 looking the main chances.
Ribchester is a clear 2nd favourite first up here today coming off three rating runs that would be winning the past 4 editions of this race. First time 1800m a small query and has never won first up either explains his price.
Mutakayyef looks the untapped and lightly raced quality horse of the field. 3rd to Tepin and 3rd to Postponed last prep with a G2 win over Dutch Connection, we can expect him to go well here.
I have to sway to Ribchester on top from Mutakayyef.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back both Ribchester and Mutakayyef
Decorated Knight is double figures but still well in the betting. Last three runs have been solid and has shown progression to come and could really measure up here.
Meydan Race 8
I’m the biggest Postponed fan, but the lead in run was very lackluster. Yes, the horse was given a poor ride and hard luck throughout, but he recorded an a poor timerating compared to what is needed to win this (11 points below the win here last year). His best is better than this grade, but he has to return to that form today.
Highland Reel has been well backed into 2nd favourite today after a solid prep around the world. Had nearly 4 months between runs where he won x2 group 1s around the world. On ratings, 5 of his last 6 runs have him in the finish here.
Jack Hobbs is the third favourite here and while the ratings suggest he has to be considered, he hasn’t gone anywhere close to his peak the past two preps. Struggle to have at this price.
Seventh heaven has been the plunge horse into clear 4th favourite now. Big Group 1 win three and 4 back over Found and Architecture on the days. The 3 back run was a career peak but two runs since hasn’t gone near it.
When all is said and done, I couldn’t trust Postponed off that last run so Highland Reel gets the nod.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Highland Reel to win.
Meydan Race 9
Arrogate is the world’s best racehorse and simply just wins this race.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Arrogate is Winx odds and deserves to be. Probably just watch and enjoy?
