Welcome to The Profits Cox Plate Day preview on 22 October 2016. It’s a day for making history and there is no doubt that this years cox plate will be one replayed over and over again in the future with Harnell vs Winx vs Vadamos vs Yankee Rose. With a late change in the weather predictions, we are expected to have a wet and wild day of racing that could affect results depending on just how much rain hits the track. With the unexpected nature of the track, i’ve taken two bets late in the day i’m confident about and that’s it. I’ll be working off a Soft 5 range and going from there. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 10 – Prized Icon – 2 units Each-Way @ $5.00/$2.00
Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 9 – Hartnell – 2 units @ $3.90. Vadamos – 0.5 units @ $18
Other Bet
Moonee Valley Race 7 – Royal Rapture – 1.5 units @ $4.30
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9
Leg Three: 3, 6, 8, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 10, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1000m – Inglis Banner
Hard to get excited about the opening race on Cox Plate day being a race where punters have no idea just how good each runner is with unexposed form lines and some unseen runners. The only way I could consider betting here today is on the strong exposed form of the Sydney runner Luiza that will be pushing to the front and showed a very strong kick last start.
Confidence 30%
Strategy: Luiza to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 955m – City Jeep Handicap
1. Felines: First up and well suited at this level after a strong G3 win on a Heavy 8 last prep over 1000m. Would be wanting it a bit wetter than today but should still run well with a Good 3 G2 5th behind English on record.
2. General Truce: Nice run at course over 1000m first up in listed grade when 4th behind heatherly that day and only beaten 1L by O’Malley. Last start wide no cover and horrible.. just simply a forgive run. Enjoys this track and maps a treat from the barrier.
3. Diamond Oasis: Into the Weir stable this prep. First up ran home okay off the leader and then last start on soft just not suited and ran poorly. Has to find his very best with blinkers back on today – will be on speed.
4. Grane: Two solid trials heading into this today. Loves the distance and goes well at this track. Clearly has to produce a top class run to be winning this.
5. Bullpit: First up. Onl yjust got 1 win last prep with a 0.1L win over beau Rada and ran some nice enough runs behind horses like General Truce late in the prep. Clearly has to bring A grade here.
6. Trevinder: Strong in WFA-G3 first up but then failed to show any form since. Last start wide no cover a bit of a forgive. Goes well at MV on past runs and this is well down in class. Win wouldn’t be a total shock but doesn’t map very well.
7. Gun Case: Won very well last start at course and distance beating some handy types in Estaminet and Gallant Harmony on the day. Barrier the only issue today expected to get a very awkward run.
8. Tarco: Adelaide winner last start in a very nice form line race to bring into this. Previous prep ran nicely in Listed grade races behind decent horses. Good barrier and looks well suited.
9. Jungle Edge: Scratched from Friday night to run in this. Never won on a Good track in his 9 runs on them which is a huge issue. Step back to 955m also doesn’t makse much sense to me. I want to take on here.
10. O’Malley: Will be getting back and flying home late. Suited by the track condition and is going well this prep. Looks the type of race for him to run his best and win.
Comments: Felines, Tarco, Gun Case, Trevinder and O’Malley are the five of interest in the market. Felines at her very best has the ability to simply blow a field like this away but frankly I dislike where she maps needing luck to get runs. Gun Case is a big chance here and will improve but the horse maps to get caught 3-wide at very best. The same can be said for Trevinder who won’t get in a favourable positon. We know what we are getting with O’Malley and the horse will be coming hard from the back late while I think Tarco is the forgotten horse in the betting with some strong form lines.. From on speed today he will be hard to hold out.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: O’Malley to win. Also back Tarco.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1200m – Bertocchi Crockett Stakes
1. Selenia: Ignore run last start when 3-wide no cover but still stuck on only beaten 3.4L in the end which I consider a solid effort. Back to the scene of the crime from two back runs win. Awkward barrier again but I think she gets in this time.
2. Zamzam: Three runs this prep. Firs tup was okay when a beaten favourite while the past two runs she was well beaten. Hard to consider today against up and comers that have proven more recently.
3. Sweet Sherry: Had a sickness issue between runs. Ran very well last start behind Merriest and Whispering Brook after a strong win at course and distance. Clearly has ability but not convinced she will be running at 100% back from a sickness and barrier hurts.
6. Prompt Response: Nice enough run 5th at Caulfield behind Hear The Chant. Fairly beaten the previous start behind Selenia.
7. Jeanneau: Come sinto this off two very solid trials including a nice 1000m win. 2YO winner at Randwick last prep beating Highland Beat and French Firm with ease. Will be going back and running home well.
8. Gretna: Well beaten last start at Caulfield behind Sylpheed who has come out and failed since. Well enough beaten by Selenia the previous start. Has to improve but clearly can be in the finish.
9. Brulee: Well backed first run in VIC at Caulfield from an outside barrier when drifted back to last. Pushed along at the turn but picked up well when never really pushed out at all for the final 200m finding no run. Expect a very big run if can keep up here.
11. Alluvion: Two runs for two wins in CL1 and 2 class recently at Hawkesbury and Gosford. Obviously a huge step up in class here but she does have ability.
13. Overstep: Been running around up north and getting beaten fairly on most occasions after her maiden win. Has to improve.
14. Moonlover: G3 6th last start from well back. Previous start BM-64 ran well to win. Has to improve onwards and upwards again today to measure up.
15. Blowing Kisses: CL1 2nd first up a bit of a concern for mine after two solid trials and really had no excuses. Okay type last prep when we saw her.
17. Angharad: Last start at Caulfield with Brulee was unlucky when went for an inside run and never found clear running when looking for it and went home untested. Good type of horse and have to consider.
18. Rosa Carolina: NZ import. Maiden winner first up before a nice 2nd and 6th. Has to improve.
Comments: Tough race on paper. Selenia can run well here with a better run than last start. Sweet Sherry deserves to be considered while Brulee and Angharad both come off forgive runs. Jeanneau is the big price in the race and I expect her to sit midfield
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Jeanneau E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1200m – Telstra Phonewords Stakes
1. Ken’s Dream: Handy enough run last start at Caulfield when got smashed by the winner and still ran home well after being wide. Awkward barrier today and wil struggle to get the lead today. Obviously goes well at track but has to improve onwards and i’m not sure he has another level?
2. Archives: Well beaten in the Guineas prelude last start at Caulfield coming off a very good 2nd to Saracino at Flemington. Can produce better today Blinkers off from an on speed position.
5. Dam Ready: Seems to find herself beaten by Ken’s Dream whenever they meet. Better barrier today but hard to see the turn around on form again. Can run well.
6. Palladian: Down from NSW. Maiden winner last start over 1100m at Warwick Farm. Clearly been going okay recently but has to improve on current form lines.
10. Crafted: Hasn’t been able to win a maiden of BM-70 yet but continues to run well enough. Has to improve again.
11. Big John Cannon: Only one run for a heavy 8 defeat. Walker on D Oliver off due to suspesion. Was trialling well going into last start. Clearly probably wants it dryer?
12. The Veal Thing: Heavy track winner at Echuca. Super jump up in class.
Comments: Not many overall strong chance sin this race with Archives, Ken’s Dream, Dam Ready and Dalradian all appealing. I have to believe Big John Cannon can run beter today also and may be worth an e/w bet. Ken’s Dream is the more genuine horse of the lot and with a better time in running today will be hard to beat.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Ken’s Dream to win
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1600m – Merlin Garage Door Openers Stakes
1. Lady Le Fay: Group class runner. Ran very well 2nd to Dixie Blossoms in Sydney last start. Maps well from the barrier to sit midfield or slightly further back and with the right ride will be hard to beat.
2. Rocket Commander: Awkward barrier today hurts her chances. Ran very well 2nd last start at Caulfield 2nd to Euro Angel. WFA-LR winner two back in Adelaide and Group 3 placed. No issues with rain.
3. Coronation Shallan: Expect to be on speed from a positive draw today. Goes well on wet surfaces but the past three preps have resulted in one ‘very good’ run. Last two preps has failed to get closer than 2.3L to some very average horses. Can’t seeit.
5. Metaphorical: Consistently runs well without winning. Not the best on a soft track but ran well enough two back at Flemington. Good track record but certainly queries off the past start run. Has to improve.
6. Every Faith: Ran a blinder first up at odds on a soft track and gets another today. Very disappointing last start at Flemington but wasn’t fancied on the day either which says a lot. Get back run on and loves this track.
7. Antelucan: No real soft track form to speak of coming into this with a fail when wide and that’s it on soft. Never placed at track in the past, but runs this and last prep have always suggested she is good enough to win a race like this. Good barrier.
8. Kaniana: Led last start at Caulfield and did a lot of work. Ran home nicely enough beaten 6th but no disgrace. Take a sit today from the inside draw and I think you will see a different horse finishing off today.
9. Alaskan Rose: Likes a soft track and may very well be suited today by the racing pattern. Good barrier and will be getting back and running on. Could very well just come over the top of the lot of them late. Big chance.
10. Dulverton: Going to be out the back today with a few other runners. Loves a wet surface with a good strike rate and also has never missed a place from 3 starts at the track. Jump in class today but has claims.
11. St Swithuns: Untapped resource? 6L maiden win and 5L FMB-64 last start – both on heavy. The more it rains the more you have to believe she is a chance?
12. Whirlpool: Consistent type. Well beaten fav first up. Previous preps measured up to 3YO grade. Only run on a wet track was good.
Comments: Lady Le Fay does look hard to beat, but the value clearly sits with Alaskan Rose with the rain coming. Hard to pass up the $10 on the E/W.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Alaskan Rose E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1600m – P.W Glass Fillies Classic
1. I Am A Star: Strong run 2nd in the Thousand Guineas last start cutting the corner getting a dream run. Stays at 1600m and I’m not convinced the rain will be much of an issue for her.
2. La Luna Rossa: Will really appreciate that little bit of sting out of the ground with the rain around. Huge disappointment from on speed last start. The wetter the better based on previous runs. Query over her at the distance based on last start.
3. Sezanne: Group 1 placed last start at Randwick behind Global Glamour. Winner on soft tracks so no excuses today with the weather conditions. Only disadvantage appears to be the wide gate with a midfield ride expected.
4. Chipanda: Godolphin Runner. Never won on wet before but does having placings in Group class. Three runs this prep but hasn’t really been close to a win on any occasion. Struggle to suggest from the barrier but does have ability.
5. Exocet: Disappointing run last start and pulled up with breathing issues. Back to a wetter surface today and 1600m.. query over the horse at this track but from barrier 5 will get the right position in running.
6. Stop Making Sense: Well backed last start but pulled up with breathing issues. 1200m up to 1600m a huge jump and with the breathing issue last start she will be lacking some fitness to get the win.
7. Outback Rain: Nice enough run last start behind Inside Agent from the back. Previous start good but well out sprinted by Exocet. Has to improve and barrier means will be well back.
8. Alaskan Sun: Couldn’t place in a 3YB-64 last start. Ran okay here two back over 1200m. Big step up in class and distance.
10. Mitali Assa Vedo: Maiden winner over 1400m. Up in class and no form on soft to speak of.
11. Classic Diva: Blocked for runs last start so really no idea just how good she is. Looked okay winning her 1200m maiden on a wet track and will appreciate the sting out of the ground here.
13. Nurse Kitchen: Never really got a run at them first up. Looked a nice type winning well at Geelong in previous prep. Big step up in class and distance hard to take coming off a run that won’t bring on fitness. Has to improve.
15. Kamili: Not the worst run beaten 5.4L when slow away and over raced. Back in distance here but back to a wetter track. Not sure what to suggest with her.
Comments: I’m not convinced Sezanne is suited at all today from the barrier and will get a horrid run… so is under the correct odds. La Luna Rossa maps well but have queries over the horse at this distance. I Am a Star is the horse to beat but certainly not alot of value at the price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: I Am A Star to win. Also back La Luna Rossa.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1600m – Schweppes Crystal Mile
1. The United States: Not accepting for the Melb Cup and has been sick since an eye-catching Feehan run. Will be getting back but not that far off them with such a small field. Should have every chance if 100% but big queries over just how fit and healthy he will be.
3. He or She: Game run for 3rd behind Winx last start. Gets well in at the weights against this lot and ran 2nd in G1 class two back which is worth remembering. Will get a genuine tempo on and be running home well.
4. Lidari: Horrible first up over 1400m. Can’t see the step up to 1600m making that much of a difference today off that run.
5. Royal Rapture: Big run 4th in G1 class last start from on speed off a hot tempo. Gets in well enough here at the weights and looks primed off that G1 run to improve onwards today with an ‘uncontested’ lead.
7. Federal: Strong run from out back last start at Flemington to almost win in Listed grade. Previous run 3rd was also good when came home strong late. Up to 1600m looks ideal. Well weighted against Ulmann today.
8. Ulmann: Poorly weighted up in class here from a barrier that isn’t ideal either. Will get back the rail and need to find openings at the right time. Has the turn of foot required to win.
Comments: I can’t go past the price on offer for Royal Rapture from on speed with little issues today. Get past RR if you can!
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8
Strategy: Royal Rapture – 1.5 units @ $4.30
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 2500m – Antler Luggage Moonee Valley Gold Cup
1. Gallante: Huge run 2nd behind Jameka first up over the 2000m in the Naturalism. Suited by extra distance here today and is a G1 winner last prep over 3200m. Looks well suited but never won on a good track.
2. Grand Marshal: Average runs the last two starts over suitable distances. Solely looking for further to find his very best.
3. Who Shot TheBarman: 2nd behind Hartnell two back in the Hill Stakes before being well beaten in the Metrop last start disappointingly when well backed. Has to improve today but goes well at distance.
4. Excess Knowledge: Three runs this prep and showed his best last start at Flemington in G3 company when behind Almandin giving him 3kg. Good barrier today to sit on speed with Gallante and Authoritarian. Respect.
5. Authoritarian: Moe Cup winner from start to finish. Go forward again today but 0 places from 5 runs on good tracks and this won’t be worse than a Soft 5 i’d imagine. Has to improve.
6. Master Zephyr: Well beaten when well backed last start in the Moe Cup. Previous runs showed ability especially the run behind Pemberley.. but even so, hard to back against this lot.
7. The Bandit: Ran home okay enough in the Moe Cup. Seems to have been screwed up according to John Sadler. Hard to have.
8. Pentathlon: Good enough run first up in G3 company but hard to see the win required here. Needs easier.
9. Second Wave: Godolphin import. 1710m winner. Close 2nd at Royal Ascot behind Sir iSsac Newton on record and last start 4th behind Fire Fighting at Goodwood. Big unknown up to this distance today and comes into this with a Timeform rating of 115 with a bit of a query over that figure.
10. White Dollar Sign: Nice win over some okay horses at Moe, but this is a massive step up in class and with a dryer track today, I can’t see a place even with blinkers first time.
Comments: Looks a rough betting race. Seocnd Wave is as good as the Geelong Cup runners which is a serious step below the very best we have to offer and UK have to offer. That being said, he still finds himself well in at the weights here. Excess Knowledge gets the slight nod in a poor betting race.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9
Strategy: Excess Knowledge to win.
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 2040m – William Hill Cox Plate
1. Happy Trails: Good to see this consistent bloke getting another run around today. At his very best he was recording strong Timeform ratings of 124 having recorded that rating twice at this track in the past showing just how much he handles this track. Hasn’t gone anywhere close to his best rating since October 2015 and will need to run a career peak to be battling out the finish. Good place chance if at best. Will be going back and most likely ridden for luck. Wants a dry track
2. Black Heart Bart: Won two from four in G1’s this prep including a 1800m win. Take nothing out of last start when ran a strange tempo race behind Winx. This is obviously the testing material and you can expect he will be either on speed or just sitting off it today, with a lack of speed runners in the race. Can he win? The ratings say he is up against it.. he will be there in the finish within striking distance, but i’m not convinced, especially over 2000m, that he can beat all of these home today. Don’t leave him out of your exotics bets.
3. Hartnell: Came into this prep having recorded a career best 124 Timeform rating last in 2015 winning the BMW. Expect to push forward from the barrier and sit outside the leader today if not 1 out 1 back if a bit of luck! Comes into this race with a career peak run last start that can rival that of Winx having smashed the Caulfield Cup winner by 3.25L hard held. Very good horse and will have lengths on Winx when it counts.. just has to sustain that lead to the line.
4. Hauraki: Brave win from well back last start at Randwick winning the Epsom. Previous start 1.3L off Winx. Goes well at 2000m but I have a query over the distance being the best for him or if he really is just a 1600m horse. Poor barrier today and maps to sit close to the back of the field.
5. Happy Clapper: Hasn’t won in his last 2 preps but seems to put in some solid enough runs. Lead in run over 1600m 0.6L behind Hauraki in G1 class is a nice effort. Expect he can run well but I can’t see him improving enough to win here. Could be place value.
6. Vadamos: This French raider is the real deal. Having had four runs since May, Vadamos recorded Timeform Ratings of 123, 112, 126, 126 and 124+. The 112 was on a soft track which the horse seems to not want which is actually ideal for this well draining Moonee Valley track that is expected to be firm. As a comparison, the internationals in the Caulfield Cup had never recorded above a 122 and Winx has only once gone over 126 (has had x2 126+ runs), with a 128 at Randwick in April and 126 was the rating Winx ran to win this race last year. The only question that needs to be found out today is if Vadamos can take these ratings up to the 2040m. Maps to be the clear leader in the race and will get away with sectionals below the average we have seen in this race recently. Just ignore any form before this prep.. a whole new horse!
7. Awesome Rock: Comes into the race having won just one of four runs this prep nad hasn’t place din any of the others. Came home well enough in the Toorak after not suited in the Underwood by the tempo. The Feehan is the prime example of the type of race this bloke needs, a tough slog where he embraces the pain and loves to come home hard. Expect him to sit around midfield. Personally feel he is a second or even third rater in comparison to the competition today and i’m not convinced he gets the tempo he wants. Will be on speed.
8. Winx: Clear favourite today having beaten everything thrown at her this prep recording 126+, 122 and 125+ Timeform ratings. Last prep winning at Randwick she recorded a career peak of 128 and hasn’t gone above 126 apart from that run. It’s going to be interesting to see if the last start run pushed her on any more, or if it really wasn’t the lead in she needed. Obviously a good barrier today and it’s unknown exactly where she will get in running. My gut says 3 back the outside, but there is a chance she gets caught the rail which doesn’t look the place to be this late in the day. Obvious favourite and clearly a horse to beat.
9. Lucia Valentina: She is a consistent horse that finds her very best runs on wetter tracks. That being said, she only need a little bit of sting out to be suited. Her career peak would need to be reached and beyond to measure up to the likes of Winx and Hartnell today. Lead in run was promising with good closing sectionals.
10. Yankee Rose: The big ‘unknown’ of the race. From barrier one, where will she settle? G1 winner in first prep over 1400m and then this prep G1 placed behind Guineas winner Global Glamour and then went on to storm home in the Champions G1 last start at Randwick. No weight on her back today with 47.5kg she still rates well below the leading runners in here, but anything is possible with the weight.
Top Chances
Winx
Hartnell
Vadamos
High Chances
Yankee Rose
Medium Chances
Lucia Valentina
Black Heart Bart
Hauraki
Low Chances
Awesome Rock
Happy Trails
Happy Clapper
Comments: I’m happy to take Winx on at the price. There really are only four main chances here in Winx, Hartnell, Vadamos and Yankee Rose.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Hartnell – 2 units @ $3.90. Vadamos – 0.5 units @ $18
Moonee Valley Race 10 – 2040m – LUCRF Super Vase
1. Prized Icon: Ran very well last start at Randwick when held up and flew home over the 2000m. Looks very well suited sitting just off the pace from barrier 2. Top chance.
2. Sacred Elixir: Terrible run lastt start in the Guineas when seemed to have every chance but didn’t have the sprint in his legs. Could have been flattened first up. Should be improving up to 2040m but hard to have huge confidence on the last start run. Would love the speed to be on.
3. Veladero: Waller runner. Well beaten last start by Prized Icon and hard to see turning the tables. Won three on the run previously.
4. Morvada: Adelaide runner. Three runs this prep and hasn’t won yet. Hard to see the win here.
5. Silvera: Good win two back in Adelaide but then fairly beaten last start in a race easier than this. Clearly has to improve and wants more rain.
6. So Si Bon: Ran very well 5th behind Divine Prophet in the Guineas coming from the back and checked at an important stage. Up to 2000m clearly looks suitable.
7. Retaliation: Godolphin runner. BM-64 winner first up and hasn’t won since. Ran fairly 4th in the Gloaming but last start in the Champions was well beaten.
8. Wimborne: Nice enough run two back off a hot tempo but very well beaten last start in G3 over 2000m. Not for mine.
9. Sayonaramosa: 1600m winner by 5.25 lengths clearly suggests hse has a load of ability. Even so, it’s hard to suggest he massive step up in class here at the distance.
10. Whispering Brook: Massive run in the Guineas last start when a decision to take a sit instead of leading cost her the win in my humble opinion. Got the 1600m but is a query at the 2000m today. Looks the leader on paper. Tough horse to get past.
11. Harlow Gold: Fair enough run without doing alot in the Guineas. Previous two wins were both solid. Has to improve to best form and then come. Would love more rain.
Comments: Prized Icon looks a very good bet at the prices. This is a competitive field but I can’t resist the E/W odds from the barrier.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Prized Icon for 2 units Each-Way @ $5.00/$2.00
