The 2015 Caulfield Cup is certainly one of the most ‘open’ in recent memory. It is also one of the most unpredictable speedmap wise. Complacent is the obvious leader, but it’s almost certain that the horse will miss a run, leaving it up to another horse in the race to lead them around. There is every possibility that the international Snow Sky is that horse and if that is the case, you can expect Oliver to not push the tempo until the final 800m. I’ve mapped a medium tempo on paper and would be shocked if we got much faster than that. I’d also be shocked if they allowed a horse to get away with a slow tempo out the front, especially with the early positioning pressure you get the first 400m going into the first bend in a Caulfield Cup.
1. Protectionist (12): Not much to say about the Melbourne Cup winner of last year. He came back horribly in the Autumn and has been every worse this prep. Must improve significantly to be considered for a place. Needs 3200m.
2. Snow Sky (2): Ideal barrier drawn to sit just off the speed. Wouldn’t be shocked to see them push to lead and to control the tempo either if it’s handed up to them. Clearly, his best runs have been over the 2800+ distance in the past for mine, but he got a slower than average run Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot last prep and had the ability to sprint away from them from a positive on speed position. Won’t be suited if they go hard out front.
3. Fame Game (1): The more i watch the replays of Fame Game the more I’m convinced this horse just simply wins the Melbourne Cup with a good ride. Once the horse is given 150-200m to settle, it unleashes a massive run in all it’s replays. While you may think barrier 1 is a positive for Fame game, I’m of the opposite opinion. This is a horse you want off the rail and given time to wind up and i just don’t see that run occurring. Obviously has the ability to win, but i couldn’t dive in at the single digits from the barrier and expected position in running.
4. Our Ivanhowe (17): Clearly has the talent to win, but it will be very hard to from the barrier with his racing pattern, expected to sit out the back. Takes a long time to wind up and puts in solid sectionals. Will be finding his best run in the Melbourne Cup and expect to see him flying home here.
5. Hokko Brave (19): Working quite well since arriving in Australia. Last win was over 2400m on a Good track and i reckon he will appreciate the Australian good track. Best runs for mine are over this distance and not the Melbourne Cup distance, so this is his ‘grand final’. Barrier certainly makes it hard, but at least the horse will be off the rails. Needs a brilliant ride to pull it off.
6. Mongolian Khan (9): On replay, the last start run in the Caulfield Stakes looks even better than it actually was. Huge run and he is absolutely peaking coming into this. Obvious favourite, weighted very well and barrier is strong when you consider 3 emergencies have drawn inside.
7. Trip to Paris (5): Best runs in the past have been over much further with 3200m+ clearly this horses best runs. Very very happy to take him on here.
8. Who Shot Thebarman (21): Massive run last start in the Turnbull from out the back when he just kept finding and finding to the line. I was REALLY disappointed when i saw him draw barrier 21. They will be getting back with him, trying to sneak a few spots more forward than last start. Dismiss at your own risk.. good enough to win and flying.
9. Grand Marshal (6): Just battling currently. Not this class over 2400m. Only thing that could have him any chance is the fastest run Caulfield Cup in the past decade.
10. Royal Descent (22): Loves to run a second doesn’t this old girl! Personally feel her best distance range is closer to the 2000m than 2400m… but she has no weight on her back like last start in the Turnbull, she maps to go forward from the wide barrier and she runs well no matter the circumstances.
11. Volkstok’n’barrell (11): Weighted to win if improves back to his very best form up to the suitable 2400m distance. Awkward barrier 11 becomes a decent barrier 8 with emergencies removed and he maps as a front runner getting a nice spot. Blinkers off a key gear change for me.
12. Hauraki (14): 0.8L off Mongolian Khan in the Derby last year up in Sydney so we know he handles a tough 2400m run. Last start in the Craven was obviously suited by the tempo being put on out the front and found his way to the line strongly behind Complacent. Good enough form to suggest he can measure up but does have to improve. Won just 1 of his last 8 runs.
13. Lucia Valentina (20): Thought she was ticking over nicely when she ran home strongly first up in the Tramway, but I was a little disappointed George Main day that she didn’t make up more ground than she did. Last start in the Epsom it clearly showed that she wanted the step up in distance, and the work during the week suggests she is a better chance than the market price with blinkers off.
14. Rising Romance (2): 2nd last in the barrier draw with barrier 2 and 22 left.. who says you don’t need a bit of luck in Racing.. got the 2! Perfect barrier for this front running mare who went painfully close last year on speed in a race that didn’t have a load of tempo put into it. It looks a similar race and she will have every possible with an on speed run. Makybe Diva run was huge and last start in Turnbull 3-wide no cover was a forgive run. Looks primed and ready to fire well in at the weights.
15. Magicool (15): Thought he may have had improvement in him after an okay run in the Makybe Diva, but nope, it was just the slowly run tempo of the race. Last two runs were horrible and he shouldn’t be in the field. Take him on.
16. Gust of Wind (13): Was the Oaks win a fluke last prep from on speed? If not, why would they be going back with 51kg? Beaten 2.45L last start by Preferment in the Turnbull, she clearly wants further. Most importantly, she never got a clear run at them last start and would have at worst finished within 1L of the winner, but I reckon she could have won it. Weighted to go close… needs a good ride. Real issue for mine is the mid-week jump out where VolkStok absolutely belted the horse – but I’m to believe the horse has never been a great track worker.
17. Set Square (16): Worked very well mid-week as expected. Solid run last start for third at Flemington and continues to improve up in distance. Almost a year between wins with the last win coming in the Oaks over 2500m. Certainly going the right way and 51kg has her right in this. The wide barrier makes things tricky though and you get the feeling they may be forced to push forward.
18. Magnapal (18): Beaten by Escado in the lead up race…. not exactly the form you want to be following into this. Previous run beat The United States who has failed to fire or win since and previous race Iggimacool who failed on Wednesday. In at the minimum and needs every bit of it to run well. Not blessed with a good barrier.
19. Quest for More (8): First emergency. Best form in the past clearly over 2800-3200m and not the 2400m. Beat Max Dynamite last prep and ran second to Big Orange beating Trip To Paris over 3200m. Obviously looking for further, but off a low weight from a decent barrier you couldn’t exactly dismiss the horse if it got a run. Has more claims than quite a few others.
20. Complacent (10): Second emergency. Disappointing to see he won’t get a run as his form this prep has been stunning. Beat Kermadec and Royal Descent three runs back… ran a close 3rd to Magic Hurricane and Preferment two back and comes into this off a 2000m win. Looked the likely leader in the race and would have been able to run it to suit.
21. Dibayani (7): Third emergency. Been ticking over nicely nicely this prep with strong runs behind The Cleaner all prep. Up in distance you just know he would be rock hard fit and wanting this distance.
22. Magic Hurricane (4): Fourth emergency. Won second up in the Premier Cup… second to Preferment beating Complacent in the Hill Stakes and then last start flogged the field in a weak Metrop over this distance. Looks unlucky to miss a run.
Verdict
What I’m looking for in a horse coming into this race is an impressive last start run within 20 days of running here. I’m also looking for a horse that will be positioning off the rail and further forward than midfield. The run of Mongolian Khan coming into this race was what i wanted to see from the horse. Not only does the horse handle a strong tempo over the 2400m, but the horse has the turn of foot from an on speed position to win a quality race like this if there is a less than average tempo. Gust of Wind is a horse I have a lot of time for on it’s runs this prep. I think the horse has gone to a new level and is jumping out of the ground to get this distance. Tactically this is the type of horse I want to back as the jockey has unlimited options on where to go depending on how the horse jumps, being able to win from anywhere in the running. Snow Sky can’t be ignored from the very positive barrier with Complacent not making the field. I feel Snow Sky wants a slow to medium tempo and if that occurs over this 2400m, he will be in this finish. Who Shot Thebarman is the ultra value in the race. He savaged the line last start at Flemington and while I would prefer he had a better barrier, you know he is going to be coming and coming and coming and I think he is going better than ever. I’m not discounting Rising Romance, Hokko Brave or Volkstok’n’barrel who make my ‘next level down’ of ratings.
Top Pick: Mongolian Khan
Value Picks: Gust of Wind & Who Shot Thebarman
Top Chance
6. Mongolian Khan
16. Gust of Wind
2. Snow Sky
8. Who Shot Thebarman
High Chance
14. Rising Romance
11. Volkstok’n’barrell
5. Hokko Brave
20.(EMERGENCY) Complacent
Medium Chance
3. Fame Game
4. Our Ivanhowe
10. Royal Descent
12. Hauraki
13. Lucia Valentina
17. Set Square
22.(EMERGENCY) Magic Hurricane
Low Chance
1. Protectionist
9. Grand Marshal
19.(EMERGENCY) Quest for More
21.(EMERGENCY) Dibayani
7. Trip to Paris
No Chance
15. Magicool
18. Magnapal
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 14, 16
