Caulfield Race 9
Bagman: Been threatening all prep to win and looked home last start before being claimed on the line by the stablemate up at Rosehill. Back to a dryer surface today, but last run on a Good surface was a strong 1.3L 3rd in Group 3 company at Rosehill. Would expect that he is suited by this track as it’s very similar to the profile of Rosehill and past record of 1 win 3 placing from 6 runs (only two he missed a place were WFA-G1/WFA-G2) suggests he loves the track. Oliver has a task getting a run from that far back with this barrier… top weight for a reason.
Hioctdane: Won four in a row going through the grades over in Adelaide. Continues to defy the odds and has only been favourite one of those runs! Up in class again today and the stable doesn’t send them over without expecting a bold run. Expect him to be just off the speed but should find his way over for a nice spot in running.
Self Sense: Ridden out the back the last three runs. Previous three two runs for 2nd and 1st in this similar class saw him out the front and from barrier 4, i see no reason why back up in distance he won’t be out there today. Weighted very well and this may just be his race after a good showing last start.
Lord Durante: Seemed to have every chance last two runs, but did over-race and that sees the horse never really finish off his races. Has the ability to run well but 2000m certainly not his distance and most likely over-races again setting up a solid tempo out front.
Tristram’s Sun: Given this bloke enough chances this prep I have to say. Last win was over 2000m beating Extra Zero in similar grade, but his form previous to that was much better than his last two starts this prep. Weighted okay but i’m sacking him for this run.
Ava’s Delight: Out the back as always last start but got away a bit better this time. Low weight and was able to take the victory. Don’t expect miracles to occur twice in a row. Take her on, got her win this prep.
Commanding Time: Every chance last start at MV when hitting the front but not being able to finish it off late. Weighted okay enough but all four runs this prep suggest he just isn’t up to this grade.
Secessio: Blinkers first time an interesting move. Wasn’t terrible first up at Pakenham and is clearly better ridden out the front/on speed than out the back. Barrier doesn’t help that adventure to the front today though.
Trade Commissioner: Been around the mark all prep but still hasn’t taken a place. Weighted 2kg better off today against Bagman, but has to find lengths today. Maps well enough from barrier to consider.
Westsouthwest: Ran a huge race last start returning to form over the flat in a low rating race at MV from a more positive position. No reason why he can’t be ridden in similar fashion today… dryer track today though may just see him not finish off as well as last start. Place chance for mine.
Spinderbella: Last prep measured up to this type of grade in F&M class winning at MV… but two runs to date shown very little to suggest we could trust her today especially when she started so well last prep. Looks to need the run i’d suggest.
Word of Mouth: Huge win last start at Moonee Valley destroying the field. Ran 2.8L 5th to Magicool three runs back at Flemington which is Kenjorwood form as well… so really has measured up IMO in this class this prep for mine. Will certainly be getting far back in running but should be suited by tempo.
Use The Lot: Respectable run from out the front last start at MV. Really should have been fighting out the finish with the times they got out the front I thought. Won’t get it as easy today I suggest… hasn’t won in a long time for a reason.
Nordic Duke: Never discount the Duke. Finally got a win this prep but hard to see him beating all of them home today in this class. Could flash late.
Rebel Rising: Poor barrier and massive leep in class. Hard to suggest based on not winning in lower BM class all prep.
Comments: Rail out 9m today 2080m to finish the day, you generally find that every horse has an opportunity if run truly and with Lord Durante and Use The Lot in the race, we can expect that to occur. Looks a race in four as seen in our Quaddie numbers and the market has it in a fairly similar shape. I would probably note that Use The Lot is the value in the race at the odds, mainly place price. Word of Mouth’s last start dominating win was very much tempo related, very good horse, but beat an average bunch in dominating fashion in a fast run race. From that far back in the race, I get the feeling something closer to the front if good enough can steal the race and we come back to Self Sense who we were on last start at Flemington. From barrier 4 in a race lacking in early tempo outside of the two leaders, I can see him slotting just off the speed (trainer confirmed will be more forward) and getting three lengths on the Word of Mouth and Bagman coming into the straight. Hioctdane also rates well at the prices and will have a nice spot on speed to launch home also.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 14
Strategy: Self Sense E/W
