Gear Changes: Jacquinot Bay – Blinkers On, He Or She – Winkers First Time, Lucky Lucky Lucky – Blindfold First Time & Barrier Blanket First Time.
1. Puccini: Very disappointing first up run over in NZ. Top weight and looks poorly in today and will be out the back.
2. Akzar: Blocked for runs first up at Flemington and was never liked in the betting. Clearly looking for much further this prep and last win was over 2400m. Best on wetter tracks recently but goes fine on Good also. Expect a much better run but not sure the swoopers are suited.
3. Kenjorwood: Very fair run last start in WFA-G2 company when 3L 4th to The Cleaner. Up to 1700m suitable and shows best 1600-2000m. Loves any surface and looks a strong tempo which will be put on today. Wide barrier so only option is to push forward and he will be doing that.
4. Jacquinot Bay: Flat run last start at Flemington, just ignore it, back up to 1700m which is a perfect distance. Last prep over 1600m won then went 0.1L 2nd in Group 3 company. First up run more than good enough to win this. Big price and great barrier.
5. Bring Something: Showed nothing only run last prep. First up today and has never placed first up in the past. Needs further.
6. Iggimacool: Had the last start race run to suit and just got a dream run and won with ease. Obviously a talented type and previous start 2nd to Magnapal looks even better on record now. Have to respect her class and good barrier… but she will certainly be further back than is ideal today.
7. Diametric: Disappointing run last start, flat id suggest. Two previous runs were fair but he will certainly be getting far back again today.
8. Don Doremo: Every chance last start. Needs further.
9. He or She: Absolutely flying according to the stable and was a very big run last start at Flemington but did a lot of work and peaked on his run late. Barrier not ideal though is the big issue, will get a long way back from there.
10. Lucky Lucky Lucky: Last start run over 3200m. First up today over 1700m… have to wonder if the distance won’t be suitable with larger targets this prep of course. Never won at distance or track.
11. Adorabeel: Had every possible chance last start at Newcastle in the Group 3 behind Forget. Hasn’t got closer than 2L all prep and not sure she is very well weighted against this lot either today. Prefer others.
12. Zebrinz: A long way back last start, expect from better barrier today to be midfield at worse. A very handy horse on it’s day.. have to improve on first three runs but seems to be going the right way up to the right distance.
13. Takenja: Respectable import. Won her first two runs by 13L and 8L over in Germany then ran 4th in France in 3F-LR before 2nd in Open grade in Germany. First up run favourite at Sandown in easier and won very well over 1400m. 1700m looks ideal and could be suited by the speed.
14. Extra Noble: Got a fairly easy time with it out the front last start at Sandown and sprinted best and won well. This looks much harder today and there is no easy lead.
Comments: Akzar, Kenjorwood, Jacquinot Bay, Iggimacool, He or She and Zebrinz stand out as the key chances here in the last of the day. Expect a very strong pace to be set out the front, but as you see in Charmed Harmony and The Cleaner races, don’t expect horses to make up huge amounts of room from the back, it’s a brutal tempo and most can’t make up the ground. For that reason, He or She and Akzar are being taken on. Even Zebrinz gets taken on from slightly worse than midfield, leaving us with three runners in Iggimacool, Jacquinot Bay and Kenjorwood. Jacquinot is the clear value at the prices and deserves to be the largest winning amount on the race, then Iggimacool and Kenjorwood and we have staked it appropriately. Looking at a $3+ return if you just back all 3 to win equal amount.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 12
Strategy: 2 units Iggimacool, 1 unit Kenjorwood, 0.75 units Jacquinot Bay.
