Gear Changes: Odyssey Moon – Blinkers off & Winkers on, Ready for Victory – Blinkers First Time, Rageese – Blinkers First Time & Ear Plugs First Time & Winkers Off, Snoopy – Winkers Off, More Than Most – Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit First Time & Tongue Tie First Time & Winkers Off, Mr Individual – Blinker Off Side On First Time & Blinkers Off First Time & Cross Over Noseband First Time
1. Press Statement: Given the Sydney visitors draw from barrier 14, Press Statement showed he is the real deal the last two three starts. His best runs were on a Soft 5. With a 27’c day forecast, it will be interesting to see if he is really suited by the ground. There is no disputing him over this distance or his class, but he has the world against him from the barrier, from his racing pattern and I’m happy to take him on.
2. Odyssey Moon: Solid to the line last start at Caulfield and it was his best run of the prep. Won’t be as fast a tempo today which is a bit of a concern but he does look to be wanting the 1600m and the change to winkers could help. Barrier 13 hurts his chances though making it possible he could end up 3-wide in the running again today which is no favour.
3. Ready For Victory: Struggling to get going the last two runs this prep when outpaced by the strong tempo. I don’t think it will be AS strong today which should help the horse settle and i think you will see his best today. Good barrier today in 4 gives him every chance to settle in a reasonable position, but i’m not convinced he has the early speed to get the position needed to come over the top late and claim the race. Blinkers on the key.
4. Rageese: Every chance on speed last start at Rosehill and was a very disappointing run. Terrible barrier today pretty much ruins all chances. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him join Snoopy on speed.
5. Dal Cielo: Group horse and winner over in New Zealand over the 1200m distance. First go 1400m last start was very strong and showed he clearly should have no issues with the distance today ridden with a sit as advised by the stable. Barrier 8 perfect and shouldn’t have an issue getting a forward position off the speed.
6. Bon Aurum: Consistently continues to get the job done! Further back than previous runs last start and suited by the tempo, looks a very good type and should have no issues with the distance. Awkward enough barrier but good enough.
7. Shards: Cassidy takes the ride. Well beaten last two starts up in Sydney. Wide barrier so will be pushing forward as per advised tactics from stable to sit top 5… wouldn’t be shocked if Cassidy boots on for the lead.
8. Sovereign Nation: Good win from the back last start at Moonee Valley, but was it really good enough to win a Guineas? I’d be shocked if we saw this horse finish over the line first.
9. Bassett: Sat off the strong speed first up at Moonee Valley set up by Keen Array and Mawahibb and smashed them. Sharp increase in distance the obvious concern and tried the same last prep and was well beaten by Press Statement running just 5th. Looks a good horse obviously on form and barrier should see him get a nice forward position.
10. Last Bullet: Smashed the clock late went sat out the back after being slowly away. First up this prep led over in Adelaide in a 4 horse race and previous prep sat on speed in an 8 horse race winning a Breeders Stakes over in Adelaide. A midfield run gives him every possible chance to win this on sectionals.
11. Lizard Island: Smashed it in last start in a maiden, but that was expected. Perfect draw today from barrier 2, will get a gun run just off the speed and have every possible if good enough. Found a few too good the last two starts in city company an issue.
12. Kentucky Flyer: Well beaten last start over the 1600m at course and distance. Did go forward two runs back to sit just off the pace but larger field, may struggle to have the early speed to get better than midfield. Has ability but I struggle to see the class to win.
13. Tarzino: Looks a serious horse going forward, but is 1600m not his pinnacle? Aimed at further this prep, he will run a very good race but find a few too good based on his racing pattern.
14. Snoopy: Massive run last start in the Prelude beaten just 0.5L when over raced. Winkers come off for that reason. On speed first two runs of this prep winning both of those, from the barrier I expect Dunn will be pushing forward and could very well find himself leading the field on a rail I think is suitable to win the race. Looks a massive chance on all my ratings and big overs of the race on the last start run at $40+ when Dal Cielo and Tulsa are $10.
15. Tulsa: Out the back last start and barrier today means similar will occur if not 3-wide the trip which isn’t suited one bit today. Will be covering a massive amount of ground and will need a miracle to get the win today. Will truly be a deserving winner if he can pull this off.
16. More Than Most: Disappointing run last start at Pakenham when well beaten, but will improve for the run. Others preferred.
17. Mr Individual: Had a very good spot in running but couldn’t run it out last start. Could have been a bit flat, could just not be favoured by the speed. Barrier is horrible and will be pushed forward or sit 3-wide doing stupid things.
Comments: There has to be a leader in this race, but for mine, it’s unclear at this stage which could mean we have any type of tempo. When that is the case all I can do is lean to those runners that will settle in a strong position in the first half of the race. There are several key chances in this race and it’s a much harder race than simply Press Statement being a $2.30 favourite. Dal Cielo is the proven on speed runner, no matter the tempo and i think you just can’t look beyond the horse at the price. Snoopy is the clear value of the race at huge odds from on speed and i’m very keen. Last Bullet is also a bit of value at the price if sits where i believe they will get.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 9, 14, 15
Strategy: Dal Cielo to win. Also betting Snoopy to win.
