Gear Changes: Almoonqith – Blinkers First Time & Noseroll Off First Time, Prince Cheri – Blinkers First Time
1. Our Ivanhowe: Top weight which certainly makes things hard. Group 1 winner over in Germany over the 2400m. Ran a respectable 6th in Japan as well in a Group 1 over 2400m. 2 runs for 2 wins at this distance in the past.. i think you really just ignore that one run in Adelaide 4 months ago, the drift said it all. Have to consider but will be out the back from that barrier.
3. Taiyoo: Got caught wide with 61kg last start at Flemington and pushed on to set a stupid tempo…. only 4.8L off them will certainly have put the run into his legs for today… it’s go time, he has to win this to be considered a legit Caulfield Cup chance for later in the campaign or you will see him pushed back to Listed/Open grade races only for the rest of the campaign. Race pace from the barrier will give him no excuses.
4. Hawkspur: Old mate hasn’t won in a very long time and two runs this prep shown very little to be excited about. Never placed from 3 tries on course.
5. Almoonqith: I thought his last start run was very disappointing. He has a nice run, the speed was good and he just didn’t finish off well enough. Barrier 18 is horrible and they either fight for a lead or sit out last. Very happy to take the horse on even though we know its a Group 3 winner over 2800… has to prove stuff to me at this distance.
7. Prince Cheri: Lame first up when well respected in the market and being ridden back from a positive barrier. Positive barrier again today but much harder race. Will get a nice run but can you back the horse off a lameness run? Need to see it produce.
8. Sonntag: Just here for the run you would think. Needs further to find best this prep aimed at a Cup run.
9. La Amistad: Best seen over much further. Take on.
10. Cafe Society: Set up the pace something fierce last start. Barrier 15, blinkers remain on, i can’t see how this horse will settle.. expect a fast tempo to be set out front and he can’t win.
11. Let’s Make Adeal: Found nothing first up. Goes okay 2nd up but can you trust on first up run in this grade? I want to see the run.
12. Like a Carousel: Best seen over further than this in the past. Obviously can run well.
13. Bold Sniper: Queen’s horse. Needs the run today.
14. Kapour: Not exactly a top rater but running consistently well. Best run this prep on Heavy track, not near that today.. next start ran close 2nd on Firm.. so can run well on all surfaces… barrier 20 makes things very hard.
15. Magnapal: Very very good win first up. Best runs in past over this distance but better on wet for mine.
16. Genuine Lad: Not very genuine first up over the 1400m. Up to 2000m today obviously helps chances. Consistent type who should run well but barrier 19 certainly doesn’t help.
17. The United States (EM1): Can’t say anything wrong about this horse. Ran very well last start for 2nd when wide from too far out. Should get a midfield position from barrier today and have every chance.
18. Ethiopia (EM2): Best is behind him.
Comments: Banca Mo was scratched from this race after having a heart attack mid-week and dying. Rest in Peace you good thing. Make no mistake, the pace in this race today will be brutal. Not often i want to be on horses not ridden for a top 4 spot, but that is the race for it. True staying test. I think Taiyoo will do no work to get a nice rails position about 3-4 slots back and with a bit of luck have every chance to steal this race.
Confience: 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 15, 17
Strategy: Taiyoo E/W
