Gear Changes: Don’t Doubt Marley – Tongue Tie Off
1. Pasadena Girl: Backed into favourite, the outside barrier means we know where she will be in the running, out the back and off the rail. Last start got stuck on the rail behind a wall of horses and really just had no where to go. 1600m suits as shown by the last prep win over this distance up at Randwick. Only query is the lack of significant tempo in the race out the front from where she will get in the run.
2. Miss Gunpowder: Talented filly who won with ease last start when allowed to lead them around at her own pace. Sat until the 400m and just flew away from them solidly. Horror barrier drawn but I believe it’s a blessing in disguise as they were thinking of taking a sit from an inside barrier… expect to see her on speed and very hard to catch. 1600m will suit as she wasn’t losing any ground on the line last start.
3. Sagaronne: Beaten 4.75L and 6.4L the last two starts this prep, struggle to suggest her on current form but we do understand best was 0.8L off Press Statement last prep.
4. Jamaeka: Two runs this prep for 3rd and 3rd. Both starts she sat wide with no cover and from barrier 9 there is actually a possibility of it happening again. Certainly shown the ability to run well today, but needs to take a step up to beat this lot.
5. Take Pride: All you can do is win and win well and that is exactly what she did last start at Moonee Valley. Well beaten two and three runs back and worth noting she was 2.3 lengths off Miss Gunpowder first up at course over 1100m. Much harder race today and big jump to 1600m a bit of an unknown 4th up.
6. Badawiya: Got the gun run last start at Moonee Valley and blazed away from talented types including Sacred Eye on a day when it did favour being closer to the front than the back. Was a big improvement on the previous three runs, but you feel she has to take the next step today to beat all of these. Have to consider.
7. Stay With Me: Very flat last start at Caulfield and if you are going to put in a flat performance, it’s better to be in the prelude rather than the Guineas itself! Two back run at Moonee Valley was a huge effort and a repeat anything similar to that from the gun draw should see her in the finish.
8. Payroll: Looks a big price to day on form! Ignore first up run and look to last start when jumped to 1400m. Wide no cover and pushed along just far too early. Cassidy onboard so don’t be surprised if he tries to lead from barrier 1, but i reckon he takes a sit. No excuses run.
9. Alaskan Rose: Simply wasn’t good enough last start taking the grade jump. Very keen to take her on here as i just don’t think she is up to this level of race on everything i’ve seen so far.
10. Super Cash: Good run again last start. Had every possible chance but out sprinted over the 1400m. Doubt the 1600m will suit on what i’ve seen.
11. Don’t Doubt Marley: A bit unlucky with no real run last start, also had a bit of a luckless run the race before. Has ability but racing pattern gets into a load of trouble and can’t rate high enough on what we have seen so far.
Comments: Miss Gunpowder gets the nod again today even with the barrier going forward. Stay With Me looks the chance among the favourites while Take Pride looks a huge price on last start if the horse can handle the distance and Payroll also looks a chance at big odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Miss Gunpowder E/W. Smaller bet Take Pride to win.
