Gear Changes: Absidewithme – Blinkers First Time, Bull Point – Tongue Tie First Time, Yesterday’s Song – Bubble Cheeker Near Side Off & Winkers First Time & Tongue Tie Off.
1. Lucky Hussler: Every chance first up and could only manage 4th. Bossy riding, could try and get further forward today and sit midfield. Need to ride for luck for mine to be winning and I think we just have to take him on 2nd up today.
2. Cosmic Endeavour: We were on last start and went away with a bad taste in our mouth as she was 3-wide with no cover the trip and only lost 0.6L. This week should get a spot fairly easy just off the pace, but this is another level up than those who beat her last start. Has to improve to figure in the finish.
3. Amorino: First up was a solid run 5th over the unsuitable 1200m. Goes much better over the 1400m but never placed 2nd up in past a huge concern and never got to this level in the past.
4. Leebaz: An awkward barrier today but should be able to push forward. Best last prep seen over much further and was very weak first up. Best run last prep was in WFA over 1800m, not 1400m when winning. Has ability but rare to see him pull off a win in such a race. Can’t see it.
5. Strawberry Boy: With Charmed Harmony an expected scratching, I can see him getting the rails run out front and setting his own tempo with Rich Enuff settled outside of him. First up run was solid on speed fighting to the line in the Theo Marks when Winx swooped over the top of them. Strong second up record, but based on last prep he may need the step up to 1600m to be winning a race of this quality? Rail will be the place to be.
7. Rich Enuff: Old mate wasn’t exactly suited by a brutal tempo set last start at Flemington and i’m not convinced he enjoys the straight. First up behind Bounding was a good run, but not the best you will ever see from him. He still has a fair bit of improvement to reach the heights of last prep and i couldn’t have him today with the early work required from the barrier.
8. Under The Louvre: Huge run last start at Flemington. Best runs in past have been over 1200m but gets the 1400m no issues and can measure up. I can’t see the track suiting his style of running though is the issue today.
9. Amicus: She returned with a bang winning two in a row when the market took her on at both starts. Stays at the same distance today but well up in class, so will have to improve again. Awkward barrier, if they go forward a chance she will have to try push more forward than wanted or get caught 3-wide.
10. Charmed Harmony: Questionable whether they will even run. If they do, I don’t think the horse is suited one bit to the ground profile with a Good 3 and the sun expected to me out firming it throughout the day. Expect a scratching or a non-placed run, and you know how much i respect this horse.
11. Stratum Star: Jumping from an awkward barrier today, clearly last start eye-catching run in the Memsie when just missed from a very good spot in running and ride. Very awkward barrier drawn today though and it will take a ride of the year performance to find a position close enough to the speed that isn’t in the 3-wide position (which isn’t suited today). I’m comfortable taking the horse on.
12. Disposition: Absolutely destroyed the field in the Tontonan in a very reasonably run time as well. From barrier 3, expect Oliver to ride positive early to get a rails or one off position 3-4 off the leaders to give his horse every possible chance. Looks the horse to beat and has been well backed in kind.
13. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Ran on well late last start at Moonee Valley in much easier grade. Hard to see the required improvement to place here.
14. Hopfgarten: Good horse. Never measured up to this grade in the past is the issue today. Needs to take the next step but barrier looks tough.
15. Gregers: Brave effort last start at Flemington when led all the way and continued on with it being taken in the final 50m by Churchill Dancer and Under the Louvre. Tactically, much better suited today from barrier 11 getting a sit just off the speed runners most likely 1 off the rail. Hasn’t won in more than a year is a concern considering her class and placings, but she stuck on brilliantly last start and looked ready for the 1400m with a sit.
16. Abidewithme: Well backed first up in mares grade when running well to hold out Set Square. Looks a decent type but wants further to find herself in this grade on ability and barrier is horrible today.
17. Bull Point: Clearly not good enough to win this today on everything we have seen last prep and this prep. Take him on.
18. We’re Gonna Rock: Can’t believe this horse got into the field. Take it on.
19. Petrology: Hasn’t gone close all three runs this prep. Hard to have from awkward barrier at this level.
Comments: If/When Charmed Harmony is scratched, expect the tempo to slow from very fast to medium to fast. With the way the rail should be playing today, expect on-speed runners and those being ridden for luck to be suited best. Disposition looks very hard to beat from position in running and on ratings. I couldn’t approach this race any other way than backing Disposition at the weights, course, distance and mapping. Keen and feel the only way the horse isn’t in the finish is if he is blocked for runs. Gregers is the value runner of the race.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 11, 12, 15
Strategy: Disposition to win.
