Gear Changes: Contributer – Cross Over Noseband First Time & Tongue Tie Off First Time, Dibayani – Blinker off Side On First Time & Bubble Cheeker off Side On First Time & Lugging Bit Off First Time & Standard Bit On First Time, Hi World – Blinkers Again & Noseroll Off First Time.
1. Fawkner: Good run and win first up over 1600m. It wasn’t a hard gut buster which is a concern for mine coming into this. To chase The Cleaner down today you will need to be at 100% to just keep on grinding him down to the line. I think he is obviously good enough to win today, I just have fitness queries 2nd up compared to a few others today on what i saw first up and know about the horse.
2. Dandino: The eye-catching run in the Makybe Diva never asked for anything the whole race and the tempo of the race was average at best which should have suited those out front as well. The track condition is against him today, but i think they will snag him back to the rail and just ride for luck. I have to say, i can see it working as well. Looks a good value price.
3. Sertorius: A hard horse to map today from the very awkward barrier. He might push forward if that happens he could sit outside mourinho. If not he will be far back or 3-wide… will need a very good run just to place.
4. The Cleaner: Ideal barrier 1 today, expect him to jump away and get a clear lead with no other horse in the race wanting a lead. The rail walked like absolute dynamite on Wednesday and he will have every possible chance to take this out today with Callow not having to push him out of the barrier and to let the horse go around at his own pace. Take him on at your own risk.
5. Mourinho: Flat run last start over the 1600m, I think you have to look to the run two back at course over 1400m when sitting just off The Cleaner all the way and getting over the otp late. He has the ability to do it again today and has a 1800m win last prep over Happy Trails on record at course and distance which is hard to dispute as top quality form. Could be value.
6. Contributer: First up well beaten over 1600m by The Cleaner. As we expected, he didn’t handle the sharp 1600m and I can’t see why today would be any different over the 1800m. He blew them away from run one onwards last prep, but this prep he has started with a blunder coming off that injury, you really have to query if he is back to his best.
7. Weary: His last few runs have been much better than the results suggest being slowly away and losing all chance of a win. Hard to trust him here today obviously but has the ability if good enough. Would prefer it wetter though.
8. Dibayani: He will continue to get better as he gets more runs under his belt. His first two runs in this prep have been solid but he has been well beaten both times by The Cleaner. Gear changes are a start but not sure it will be enough.
9. Mongolian Khan: Found his best over 2400m last prep in the ATC derby winning it with a very good ride. First up run was fair without impressing in the Makybe Diva, but he certainly wasn’t suited in any way by the slow tempo. I’m not exactly convinced the 1800m off such a brutal tempo will suit enough for him to be winning, but he is a great chance to be there in the finish.
10. Volkstok’n’barrell: Never tested last start at Flemington and in the Memsie ran to expectations. Maps a little too far back for mine on a ride which will surely go wide as well. I think he may just be a run short having not done much last start in the Diva and you have to be fit to beat The Cleaner.
11. Magicool: Not the worst run last start in the Diva. I think he is best suited by a stronger tempo and this is the testing material. Is he good enough? Don’t think so. A place at best.
12. Hi World: Two disappointing runs in a row when well backed in both also. Happy to take on again today off those two runs.
Comments: The speed map behind The Cleaner is interesting. Fawkner should most likely get 2-3 back the rails with Kongolian Khan on his outside. Mourinho and Hi World should be rolling forward while Contributer and Dibayani should be trying to settle 3-4 back on the outside also. Sertorius is a hard one to map and could push forward or stay back. I think Dandino gets a rails run and is ridden for luck and could get a dream run. The tempo of this race will be fierce and The Cleaner will have every possible chance with this gun rail today. He is a massive price here and impossible to pass up. I’m also very keen on backing Dandino at the price ridden for luck.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: The Cleaner to win. Smaller bet also on Dandino to win.
