Gear Changes: Puccini – Ear Muffs First Time, Akavoroun – Blinkers Again
1. Lucky Hussler: Huge run last start at Caulfield blocked for runs, should have run the race if got clear running.. but that’s what happens. Barrier 4 today, should have less excuses and up to 1600m should suit. Best at 1400m in past for mine so has to get that extra distance today. Also needs to sit much closer.
2. Stratum Star: Very strong win from on speed last start at Caulfield. Ran Boban to 0.2L the previous run. Up to 1600m should suit even more. You go back through his record and he has missed one place in 14 runs. Barrier 2 is ideal to get a run just off the speed again.
3. Leebaz: Not a bad run from further back last start compared to previous tactics. Will struggle to get on speed again today and poor barrier hurts chances.
4. Strawberry Boy: Very good on speed run sticking on for days setting a hot tempo out the front.. Will be even hotter today. Ran Winx to 0.5L the previous start… step up to 1600m the key and Cassidy won’t stop riding him out.
5. Ninth Legion: Decent type but one I want to take on today even from the barrier.
6. Puccini: Horrible both turns this prep.. can put in good runs but i couldn’t have him.
7. Disposition: Every possible chance last start at Caulfield but better horses got him. Better weighted today against Stratum Star but giving Lucky Hussler weight. Have to consider.
8. Kenjorwood: Huge win last start at Caulfield. Back to 1600m ideal for sure.. will be on speed with a strong tempo being set… well suited to this.
10. Flamingo Star: Every chance last start at Rosehill but failed to run it out…. tempo will be the same here. Take on from barrier.
11. Hi World: Back to 1600m more suitable than last start 1800m… back to this grade obviously much better suited also off 54.5kg but barrier hurts as well. Has shown he can handle a hot tempo and weighted well so have to consider.
12. Hopfgarten: Well beaten last start no surprise. Could run better today up to 1600m but will be a long way back even from the 1.
13. Noble Protector: What do we make of first up… big warning sign. You couldn’t bet confidently into her here but also can’t leave out of any multiples.
14. Jacquinot Bay: Gains 3kg on Kenjorwood today for a 0.2L defeat last start and is absolutely flying. Barrier 18 is horrible but that simply means he will be on the speed toughing it out with a weight advantage. Looks a massive blowout chance. Big price. Keen.
15. Abidewithme: Good mares grade win first up and set square has franked the form since. Ran nicely last start and barrier means will be as far back again today which hurts chances. Has ability.
16. Akavoroun: Last win was running down The Cleaner so will be able to do the same today fi good enough, but that was a long time ago, been a long time since we have seen his best.
17. Rhythm To Spare: Awkward barrier today. Going ‘okay’ but has to significantly improve to figure here.
18. Moonovermanhattan: Not on last run.
Comments: Wide wide wide open race. Speed will be on and you want to be within the top 8 on the turn for mine to win this. Jacquinot Bay is a HUGE price here and could surprise. Strawberry Boy will be hard to get past and Hi World looked weighted so well. Lucky Hussler also looks suited and so does Stratum Star.. Disposition can’t be discounted either… yep open race.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 13, 14
Strategy: I’ll be backing Jacquinot Bay E/W and smaller win bets on Strawberry Boy and Hi World.
