1. Stratum Star: Strong pace on out the front last start at Caulfield and he stuck on strongly for third just beaten a nose by Disposition. No disgrace at all finishing 3rd to Lucky Hussler either, the horse is a potential star. Top weight today up to 2000m which is his absolute limit.
2. Dibayani: Misses a Caulfield Cup start so running today and this could be a bit of value. Group 1 third over in Hong Kong last prep from out the back with a fair tempo set. Close third first up behind The Cleaner and Mourinho and Ditto behind The Cleaner second up. Further back last start at Caulfield in harder… weighted well today considering. Big chance.
3. Leebaz: The ‘speed’ in the race but hasn’t led the last two starts. Won’t exactly be ‘flying’ them along. Form doesn’t appear good enough this prep.
4. Puccini: Well beaten from out the back last start in Group 1 class. Up to 2000m should sit but last win was Group 1 in NZ over the 1600m distance. Has to improve to win this on last three runs.
5. Fenway: Good win last start at Moonee Valley and up to 2000m today obviously ideal on 0.2L defeat of First Seal in a 3F-GP1 win. Will improve with the run.
6. Sadler’s Lake: Disappointing run last start in Group 1 company well beaten. Up to 2000m should suit on form but best run this prep obviously was 1400m and this is harder and dryer track.
7. Thunder Lady: Decent enough run in the Benalla Cup last start beaten by a good progressive import. Can run well but not sure i can have her on top.
8. Awesome Rock: Have to ignore he went around last start but even so the run was poor. Was it the firm track? I don’t think so. Previous two runs were solid… not sure the horse is best over this distance.
9. Velox: Stable has a large opinion of this horse but he really has to take a step up to the next level today to be winning this. I just have to take him on.
10. High Midnight: Never placed in this class from 3 runs in the past. hard to see the jump from previous two runs.
Comments: This one looks fairly straight forward from my point of view with only three runners i want to consider today with Fenway, Dibayani and Stratum Star. Fenway is a touch of unders at the price and is the only reason I won’t be backing it today. The value in the race is with Dibayani well over the odds while Stratum Star should be clear favourite also. Very happy to be on both runners.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Stratum Star to win for 2 units and Dibayani to win for 1.15 units. Total outlay of 3.15 units for a return of 7.65 units ($2.40ish odds)
