Gear Changes: None
1. Criterion: Been up a long time this prep travelling around the world. Not disgraced over in the UK at all, but you would need to see his peak run today to beat all these and you have to question that occuring after a flight back and the dry track.
2. Fawkner: This run today will bring him on for his tilt at the Cox Plate. Simply put, he has to win today. Will get the gun run most likely outside of Entirely Platinum, or behind Pornichet one off the rail. Respect today.
3. Happy Trails: Interrupted prep so far with just one ‘clear’ run the whole prep two back. Didn’t get tested in the Turnbull and will still be backing fitness coming into this. Needs the run for mine.
4. Contributer: Well beaten in the Underwood. Will have a MUCH easier pace set out front today and should see his best come back here… but on the last two runs can you actually back him to beat home all of these runners?
5. Pornichet: I really thought his last start run in the George Main had a lot of merit. He was ground down by the two better horses on the day, but he gets up to the 2000m which is where I believe he is at his most efficient. I’ve been doubtful of him being up to this class in the past, but if he is going to get it done, it’s going to be in this race today.
6. Entirely Platinum: Had to do a lot of work to get the lead last start in the Epsom and ran out of gas late… did stick on as expected but had 4 pass him. It was a day suited to back markers but Ecuador who was on speed beat him by 1.1L. Not here today for mine.
7. Kermadec: Untested over this distance today and you have to have massive questions over how effective he will be with the step up to 2000m. Waller knows what he is doing so it’s hard to doubt the horse here, but first try at the distance in this type of race and first time the Melbourne way this prep on a warm day… the horses last 5 runs on a Good track have not resulted in a win!
8. Mongolian Khan: Continues to improve with each run this prep and 3rd up today should be at the top of his game. 2000m just a run short based on last prep and last two runs also… will complete him for the Caulfield Cup run.
Comments: I’m looking around Kermadec in the betting today. I just couldn’t dive into the $3 on offer against this lot. I think Pornichet will give the race a fair shake and anything above $7 looks backable. Fawkner will be hitting his peak today and looks ready to get a win on the board today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Fawkner to win. Saver bet Pornichet.
