1. Amralah: Uk import. Last run overseas was a WFA-G3 win over Hillstar. Only run last prep in WFA-G1 over 2000m was a fail. This is clearly just a warm up run for better things. He is an interesting runner really considering he will be from barrier 3… he could jump on speed and stalk Charmed Harmony and the pace should suit.
2. Charmed Harmony: Unlucky to not be getting a run in the Memsie as he would be a clear winning chance as the speed horse in the race.. a horse 24 rating points lower is ahead of him in the emergency list! Convincing wins the last three runs at Caulfield and Flemington by over 2 lengths in this class. He would have been licking his lips on Thursday when the rain was bucketing down… Good 4 will be enough to see him handling this track and beating these.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Goes well enough first up but never won at this track (a 0.1L 2nd). Best runs clearly over the 1600m+ in the past but has always measured up to this class. If there is a horse who is suited by the pace being put on my Charmed Harmony, he will be the one based on previous runs and he could actually mess with the favourite out the front. Stable says track work has been good but sound like they know he needs the run.
4. Trevieres: Another classy runners gets a run here… we haven’t seen this bloke since a Group 1 2nd to Solzhenitsyn in 2013! Previous to that won in France in Open class three times that prep before coming out here. Best runs over further than this distance the issue and never handled a soft ground.
5. Desert Jeuney: Well beaten last start by Charmed Harmony after missing the start. Has issues and hard to trust here.
6. Tall Ship: In for a very good prep by all reports and i have a high opinion of him…. think he can win the Caulfield Cup if they decide to take him there and the rain comes! Will be doing his best work late but can’t see him being competitive over this distance.
7. Rhythm To Spare: First up and has won at course and over this distance in the past and also won twice first up. Best runs in past have been on Good AND soft so no issues with ground. Last prep measured up in Group 1 company running well for 1.3L 5th. Has the ability but barrier takes away his chances for mine.
9. Genuine Lad: last 12 runs he has won 5 and placed the rest, he is super consistent and very well placed in the past. Best runs over further but he handles this distance.
11. Sysmo: Only won once first up in the past and hasn’t the last four preps. Best runs over further distances and while i expect him to run very well, i think the distance gets him done from the awkward barrier.
14. He or She: Consistent type over in WA and certainly a boom horse over there. Didn’t have much go right on run at Flemington last prep and can be forgiven for how he ran. Should be running on well today from a better barrier. Not sure he deserves to be 2nd favourite though.
15. Awesome Rock: Was always there or there abouts at 2 and 3 in group company but never got the win. 1200-1400m looks his ideal distance but I struggle to suggest him here today first up. Will take a good training effort to turn him around to win this.
16. Zebrinz: First up ran ‘okay’ when too far off them and only one paced really over the 1200m. Best runs clearly previous prep were later into runs and over further. Does look handy but this may be beyond him 2nd up.
17. Sir Andrew: Money muncher over in Australia so far. Has put in some very good runs but never got close to a win. Will be out the back again today and running on late.
18. Pressing: Had no luck first run in and step up to 1400m obviously suits him. Ran 4th in a 2Y-GP1 but since then hasn’t been within 3L of a win. Has ability and the wetter the track the better for him.
Comments: When all is said and done, my stats and eyes go straight back to Charmed Harmony being the best horse in this race and the horse to beat. Confidence based on Soft 5 track. Downgrade to 85% with a Good 4 track at jump time.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 18
Strategy: Charmed Harmony to win.
