Gear Changes: Dal Cielo – Blinkers First Time, Odyssey Moon – Winkers off & Blinkers on, Manhattan Blues – Blinkers off, Dark Steel – Blinkers Fisrt Time, Moher – Blinkers First Time, Spieth – Tongue Tie First Time.
1. Dal Cielo: As you know it’s very rare that the NZ runners come over and win first up, well this is certainly a hard task. Did win a 2YO Group 1 race over in NZ so have to respect his ability, may not have been suited first up by the slow pace, well that won’t occur today! Maps to get a dream run.
2. Odyssey Moon: Every possible the last two runs and just not good enough. Step up in class again today… struggle to back him here. May need sting out to find his best.
3. Ready for Victory: How many excuses can we make for him? 1 win from 5 starts and is the favourite for the Guineas. Very awkward barrier today and will need to be the best horse in the race to win this based on how i expect the rail to be playing. Very keen to take him on again.
4. Metallic Crown: Hard to argue with the last start win, but did go down in a maiden on a Good track as a $1.30 favourite which has to be considered today. Two best runs were on a heavy and soft track… the barrier is the key disappointment for the stable making things very hard. Can’t see him getting a lead without blowing too much gas early.
5. Bon Aurum: Another horse that you would think is going forward today, but based on last start, they would be happy to take a sit if required. Proved to be a very good quality horse and lizard island won since also. Will he rate up to this level of race though? Better barrier and i’d have been keen to consider betting at the price.
6. Last Bullet: Poorly away last start at Flemington and found very little for mine. Will be pushing forward but based on first two runs i’m not sure he is high enough quality to beat all these.
7. Manhattan Blues: Two runs this prep and shown very little. Take on here.
8. Snoopy: You just have to forgive the run last start at Flemington, everything went wrong. Stable still have a good opinion of him and expect to see him bounce back today from a good barrier.
9. Mr Individual: This horse is an absolute nut case. I think barrier 4 is absolutely perfect, he will over race but have no where to go and be forced to settle. Looks very well in at the weights and has huge ability… looking for the 1400m also.
10. Dark Steel: Maiden only winner… only fair in the win and won’t get an easy lead today. Not for mine.
11. Moher: Couldn’t place as favourite last two starts at Bendigo or Sandown… no thanks.
12. Extra Choice: Two wins in a row in much easier class. Will be midfield to out the back today is an issue and this is a big step up in class. Has ability but not sure.
13. Speith: Looked decent first up and won maiden easy last start well backed. Have to consider.
14. Puritan: Very good horse, can do it against the pattern from the barrier… expect them to try sit slightly further forward today.
15. Strike Force: Very easy win last start at Geelong. Looks a good type but has to improve again to measure up.
16. Tulsa: Huge run from the back last start from a poor barrier at Flemington. Poor barrier again today.. may try for a midfield position today or has to snag all the way back. Tough but good horse. Barrier hurts chances significantly.
Comments: Wide open race as the odds suggest. Ready for Victory is a clear lay in the race if you are happy to bet that way. Dal Cielo, Snoopy and Mr Individual all appeal from the barriers while Tulsa is a star in the making.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 14, 16
Strategy: Back both Snoppy and Dal Cielo to win.
