Gear Changes: Royal Rapture – Blinkers Off & Tongue Tie Off & Noseroll On
1. Charlie Boy: Ran Boban to 0.2L last prep over the 1350m in WFA-G1 after winning a Group 3 race. Very talented horse who loves a good surface. Top weight today and will be getting back, but from barrier 3 expect him to be just off midfield and could find a 1 out spot. Key chance.
2. It Is Written: Consistent type, but his first up run was poor, blocked for runs. Goes well at track but 1 win from 13 is an issue. Back in class and 1200m helps chances.
3. The Bowler: Super runs last prep but first up run at Caulfield unwanted in the market and ran horrible! Think he needs another run or two before considering backing over further.
4. We’re Gonna Rock: Obviously had a lot of problems after being off since 2012, returned and showed nothing all three runs since. Take on.
5. Fell Swoop: Three runs for three wins in a row including a handy win last start at Moonee Valley when had the absolute perfect run of the race. Horse that ran 2nd was 100-1 if that gives you a clue of exactly how strong the field was. Maps very well to be on speed or just off it again.
6. Mecir: Won 3 from 5 first up but clearly not last prep wen found nothing in all three runs. Never won at track from 2 attempts and just 1 from 8 at this class. Struggle to suggest even though his best is good enough as he will be out the back.
7. Thermal Current: Vetted at barrier and ran like a horse that shouldn’t have gone around. Ignore that run and rate on strong 2nd up record and the fact the horse won a Group 3 last prep and 5th in Group 1 company. Will sit just off the speed and have every possible chance.
8. Exodus: Adelaide runner first up in VIC… just 1 win from 5 first up in the past… has won in Open class over in Adelaide but over further. Have to take on.
9. Java: Last prep showed he had a lot of ability including a 3L 4th to Dissident in WFA-G1 class. 54kg today looks well in all things considered and while 1200m is just short of his perfect distance, get the feeling it will be ideal first up. Barrier the issue but will be pushing forward.
11. Royal Rapture: Tassy star moved to the Moody stable. Goes well enough first up and this is his bet distance. Best runs last prep were over the 1200-1400m range but certainly in smaller fields. Good barrier today.
12. Galaxy Pegasus: Missed the start at MV last start and ran home well all things considered. Has to jump with them and can be considered if that occurs. Obviously has a lot of ability.
13. Ulmann: Finished off last prep with a close 3nd to Smokin’ Joey in QLD. Has ability and ran nicely in group class in 3YO range last prep including 2nd to Winx also.
Comments: Talented group of horses in this race today and get the feeling Fell Swoop is under the odds. I’d need closer to the opening quote of $3.30 to back the horse here. Java also looks a little lower for mine at $5.50. I think the way to approach this race is a three horse play of those at value in Charlie Boy, Thermal Current and Galaxy Pegaus who are all double figure odds and rate in the single figure range.
Confience: 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 7, 9, 12
Strategy: Back Charlie Boy, Thermal Current and Galaxy Pegaus all to win.