Gear Changes: Excess Knowledge – Blinkers Off, Albonetti – Concussion Plates Again, Bikila – Winkers Again
1. Prince of Penzance: Reckon he wanted more sting out last start on the firm track at Moonee Valley. Up to 2400m obviously ideal but last two runs suggest needs to improve today. Out the back from horrible barrier.
2. Sertorius: Out the back last start in WFA-G1 and flew home loving the tempo. Step up to 2400m should be ideal on what we saw there. Looks good enough and could sit more forward from better barrier today.
3. Amralah: Further back than expected last start at Flemington and finished off nicely, but was no match for a few better. Back in grade and up to 2400m looks suited.. but is he better over this distance than 2000m? Will be strong to the line and expected on speed today.
4. Escado: Led, won, last start at Moonee Valley after giving me the eye, nod and wink in the yard to put a small bet on him – he had firm form. Obviously improved to win Group 3 last start and up to 2400m ideal on Group 3 win last prep over this distance. Have to improve again.
5. Excess Knowledge: Tactically beaten last start at Caulfield held up on too long and missed the bus. Much harder race again today is this, but he has the ability. Poor barrier a huge disadvantage.
6. Bondeiger: Getting up to his distance today. Ground home last start at Caulfield with the strong tempo over the 2000m. Needs it tough and hard out front and i don’t see that on mapping, even with Black Tomahawk probably putting speed into it from the 800m.
7. Black Tomahawk: Let go 800m out last start at Caulfield and tactics won the race. They won’t be caught flat footed today and will know the deal. Others preferred.
8. Bohemian Lily: Looks the on speed horse today. Well beaten last three runs but not disgraced at all. Back to firmer track today ideal and so is this distance. Could find her best and 53kg looks reasonable.
9. Albonetti: Soft run two back at Flemington well suited and out sprinted them. Much harder race last start at Caulfield and paid the price. Need to improve.
10. At First Sight: Ground home well again last start but not sure we can touch him today after every possible the last three starts. Needs 2000m.
11. Mister Impatience: 3000m and 3200m last prep. Found out over 2400m and 2600m. Needs further you would expect.
12. Bikila: 1.8L 4th to Mongolian Khan to finish off last prep which was quite amazing all things considered. Up to 2400m today but surely not after last start run.
Comments: Sertorius maps and is weighted to win this off the last two runs in WFA-G1 class. Looks ideally suited here and is massive overs. Respect both the favourites as the horses to beat.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Sertorius E/W
