Gear Changes: Don’t Doubt Marley – Tongue Tie First Time, Payroll – Barrer Blanket Off & Winkers + Cheekers + Tongue Tie First Time.
1. Pasadena Girl: Very nice run first up but still well beaten 2nd behind Stay With Me. Barrier three today compared to 11 last start, obviously should sit further forward today than dead last, but not much further forward. Field size of 11 should get her a run 3 horses off the leader which is certainly acceptable. No issues on firm ground but best win was on soft.
2. Jameka: Very nice run last start behind Pasadena Girl and Stay With Me. Better barrier today should see her hopefully not stuck 3-wide. Back to 1400m looks ideal with her 2YO win in Group 2 company over this distance in the past. Does need to improve but looks a clear chance.
3. Sagaronne: Not the best starter so horrible barrier today doesn’t suit one bit. Got a very good run last start at MV 3 back the rail but was blocked for runs when it mattered and never got a shot at them. Might have ability but barrier suits it for mine.
4. Stay With Me: Our Guineas girl along with Miss Gunpowder, she blew them away last start at Moonee Valley with a huge win. Hayes stable are very confident today and i can understand why. Awkward barrier today will see her sit no better than midfield and will need a good ride from Dunn to get the splits at the right moments.
5. My Poppette: Had her chances first up but not disgraced when 4th to Petitis Filous down the Flemington Straight. Back up to 1400m which was her best distance last prep winning a 2YO-LR race at Flemington… but ground was soft that day.
7. Miss Gunpowder: All you can do is beat what is put infrotn of you and her win last start over in Adelaide was effortless over the 1250m. Previous run 3rd to Pettis Filous was very classy as well and she looks the right horse to be on going forward. Expect her to push to the front, lead them all the way and be very hard to run down.
8. Alaskan Rose: Sat off the speed last start at Caulfield and just shot the field down with ease. Obviously a much harder race today than that last start win, and 2nd placed Giuletta hasn’t made the form look very good i have to say. Obviously has talent but I think we have to take her on today.
9. Don’t Doubt Marley: Another who put in a strong run behind Stay With Me, has ability on all runs so far, but i’m not convinced she is better than the rest.
10. Super Cash: A follow forward run last start when 2nd to Petits Filous at Flemington. Could sit a little more handy today. Had to find her best to match these though over 1400m.
11. Payroll: Found nothing first up. Previous preps looked good but i’m willing to take her on because of the first up run.
Comments: A competitive field but once again you have two very strong chances in the favourite and 3rd favourite mapped out the back in Pasadena Girl and Stay With Me. I think Stay With Me is the horse to win the Guineas, but i couldn’t have her on top today with how the rail is suited to Miss GunPowder.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Miss Gunpowder to win. Saver bet Stay With Me.
