Caulfield Race 5
Actuariat: 3YO winner at Flemington over the 1400m this prep. Ran nicely enough last two starts on the soft surfaces over in Adelaide but found a few too good. Back to firm ideal but will certainly be far back from the barrier today and i’d have wanted the horse closer to the speed.
Raposo: Head to head with Duke of Brunswick two back at MV and then won very well last start with a very low weight of 51kg. Up to 59kg today is the huge issue you have to consider from the back from the wide barrier back to a firmer track over 1400m.
Duaneo: Done everything asked of him this prep. Won a maiden then won a 3YO race over in Adelaide. Did a bit wrong two back but then made up for it winning well last start in easier company. D Oliver onboard… issue is back to dryer track today, big unknown.
He’s A Given: CL2 winner on heavy three back. Since then two runs in easier grade were fair but didn’t go close enough in those for mine to win this today. Others preferred.
Mihany: Ran well enough in 3YO grade start of this prep and had to go back to BM-64 to get a win two back. Last start in open BM-70 a good run close 3rd at Flemington. Has the right ratings and will be on speed from a good barrier and weighted okay.
Volcanic Ash: Very well backed last start at Sale when ran Duke of Brunswick to 0.1L and there was a clear gap to 3rd. If you are comparing at weights today Vol Ash would have been 3.5kg better off today against Duke at the weights while Raposo would have been 2.5kg worse off, if that tells you how well weighted Vol Ash is today against what looks one of the best 3YOs going around right now in Dukey. The key issue today is the barrier for Volcanic Ash, but if good enough it won’t happen at the weights.
Zahspeed: Shown nothing two runs too date this prep. Did look an okay type last prep… struggle to suggest today.
Herstory: Nice run two back when 3rd to Duke of Brusnwick behind Raposo and up just 3kg today compared to Raposo up 8.5kg! Looks main danger.
Propelled: First up was beyond poor. Couldn’t back on that first up run, need to see her go around today.
Cataleya: Ran well enough from out the front last start at MV. Up in weight today up in class. Much harder here and much more speed on.
Comments: Raposo is the false favourite here and i’m very keen to take the horse on with Volcanic Ash. Key dangers look to be Mihany and Herstory.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Volcanic Ash E/W (Around $5/$2 on offer currently)
