Gear Changes: Excess Knowledge – Blinkers First Time, Ethiopia – Visor Again & Blinkers Off, Renew – Visor Again.
1. Excess Knowledge: Soft as butter last start at Caulfield from the poor barrier. Much better barrier today and the pace isn’t expected to be brutal today either. Up to 2400m is the key and have to respect here.
3. Maygrove: Always shown ability and is a Group 2 winner over this distance in New Zealand, but two runs last prep to finish off the prep up in Sydney were very poor and first up found little also. I’ll take him on.
4. Ethiopia: No. Just no. Please retire.
5. Renew: Not often you see a 2400m race and say a horse may be looking for further, but that’s exactly Renew… can run well but really need 2800m+ to find best.
6. Lord Durante: Trainer is a little nuts if you look at his last three distances his run.. 1700m up to 2040m up to 1400m and now 2400m… last two runs been very close to a win also. Has ability but first time over this distance the concern. Natural leader.
7. Albonetti: Ridden more forward last start at Flemington and that did the trick, was home 400m out with a gem of a ride from Dunny. Looks like she could really go on with it this prep if they continue to ride her forward. The 2400m at Caulfield should allow her enough time to push forward and get over, but it won’t be easy.
9. Shenzhou Steeds: Consistently strong. Two wins and then just missed 0.2L 3rd last start in a very nice race. Awkward barrier today need a very good ride to get a position enough position. Big chance.
10. At First Sight: Just missed three runs back but been very flat last two starts… needs the step back to 2000m, doesn’t get that today. Happy to take him on. Hasn’t won a race since 2009 haha – but i reckon $890k in prize money keeps the owners feeling okay about it 😀
11. Turner Bayou: Couldn’t touch on last four runs.
12. Massive step up in class today from the 4th at Pakenham last start. Needs the run.
13. Black Tomahawk: Couldn’t win a BM-78 last start or previous race, so struggle to suggest him against this lot.
15. Gerontius: Not in this class.
Comments: Not the easiest race to judge today but clearly the three favourites are the standouts. I just have to take Excess Knowledge on at the price today on the last start run. Happy to back both Albonetti and Shenzhou Steeds… at least one should get the desired run and it should be good enough to beat this field.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Albonetti for 1.5 units & Shenshou Steeds for 1 unit.
