Gear Changes: The Bowler – Winkers First Time, Good Value – Concussion Plates Again & Visor First Time & Blinkers Off, Mecir – Glue On Shoes First Time
1. Amovatio: Consistent type that seems to find his best over similar distances. Last pre won in Open class over 1400m then 1600m in Listed class. Top weight.
3. The Bowler: Another consistent type that always seems to run well. Ignore first up and rate on previous preps best runs. 1400m is IDEAL today and last start at Caulfield at double figures ran nicely 1.8L 6th behind Fell Swoop. Barrier 2 should be much closer to the speed if not the speed in the race with a lack of it.
4. Good Value: Will sit just off the pace today from barrier 6. Won well last start at course and distance but up 2kg today has him back with them. Should get a good enough run to be every chance.
5. Richie’s Vibe: Based on last two starts you can’t be overly confident he is going well enough. At his best he can win, but it’s been a long time since we have seen that.
6. Streets Away: Haven’t seen a good run from him all prep. Hasn’t won since 2013… watch to see if money comes for him though.
7. Mecir: Found very little first up. About as much as he found last prep. Can’t trust.
8. Eximius: Doesn’t win out of turn. Long time between drinks and need the run today for mine.
9. Pago Rock: Too hard to believe last two starts when compared to two previous starts. Forgive one last time?
10. Tristram’s Sun: Flew home last start at Caulfield suited by the strong tempo and no weight after a good trial. Goes well at distance but does want further to reach best again. Maps well today.
Comments: I’m a fan of Tristram’s Sun but i can’t see the pace to suit being on today. The same is said for The Bowler who has had his best runs off strong tempos. I think the two horses most suited by the tempo today are Good Value and Amovatio to out sprint the field.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Good Value (1 unit) and Amovatio to win (1.5 units) – Current odds for this bet are $3.20 for either horse to win.
