Gear Changes: Vibrant Rouge Blinkers Off, Alleyoop Nadal Strip On & Lugging Bit On & Race Plates On & Bandages On, Petite Diablesse Race Plates On, Kayjay’s Joy – Blinkers Off Side On Again & Bubble Cheeker Off Side On & Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit On, Mossbeat – Winkers Off & Blinkers On
1. Lucky Lago: Strong win over the 1200m last start at Sandown coming back from 1900m… expect the 1400m to suit as well. 60kg certainly an issue but is certainly going well enough on the past four runs to measure up.
2. Scratchy Bottom: Continues to be aimed at 2000m+ for her best runs in prep. Goes okay at this distance but trained for further.
3. Vibrant Rouge: Has the ability but hasn’t shown it for a long while. Goes well first up and the key is that she is back to a dryer surface today. Discount her at your own cost back to this grade today with the speed on.
4. Alleyoop: NZ runner first run in AUS, rule here is to always take them on. Last three runs have only been fair compared to two previous to that which would measure up here. Best seen on softer tracks also.
5. Sardaaj: Certainly unlucky first in AUS blocked for runs and hit the line well for 2nd even though well beaten. Lesser class race here in reality if you consider Churchill Dancer’s progression, up to 1400m, looks well in. Barrier the only issue.
6. Ungrateful Ellen: Has won at this distance in the past and ran well the last time at distance for a 3rd. Best runs seen last prep over 2000m+ the obvious concern in this grade.
7. Danestroem: Keeps running consistently but not winning. Was weighted to win but fell out of it to run 1.5L 5th which wasn’t terrible but it really wasn’t the best Mares grade race you will ever see. Back to lowest grade race she has seen since her last win at course over 1200m. Have to respect at weight.
8. Petite Diablesse: First up run was a great one at big odds. Out the back and stormed home for 1.3L 6th. Poor barrier today doesn’t help matters but expect them to be having no issues going wide into the straight from this race onwards today. Good ride would find her midfield.
9. Secret Toy Bizness: Doesn’t win out of turn. First up run was very average. Never placed at track. Take her on here.
10. Sure You Can: A bit of a frustrating horse to back but clearly best runs come at Flemington. Never won at distance, first up or at track.
11. Soosa Rama: Very hard horse to catch. Best would see her running well here, but feel we are still a few runs off seeing that.
12. Ring da Belle: New stable – been working well at home. Never won at distance needs further but could run well enough at weights.
13. Kayjay’s Joy: Did a lot wrong last start at course over 1200m. Up to 1400m certainly suits and gear changes and good track seem to have her in well enough here, just not sure the 1.5kg down up to this grade will have her winning.
14. Mossbeat: Never runs a poor race, but seems to always find a few too good. More gear changes again today and Good track.
Comments: The speed will be on with Danestroem in this race today which should suit a few runners. Sardaaj is the favourite and deserves to be on form and would be the most confident bet of the day if drawn barriers 1-7, but 14 means extra work required to cross which is why the horse is $2.80 not $2.00. petite Diablesse looks the main threat to the favourite while Vibrant Rouge has the previous form to blow this one out.
Confience: 80%
Strategy: Sardaaj to win. Speculation bet on Vibrant Rouge – we will get $100+ so don’t need much on to find out.
