Japhils: Won two preps back very well over 1000m at MV when slowly away so proved in 2YO grade that she has no issues with the sprint trip even though she won over 1400m last prep and was raced up to 1600m. Obviously had a freshen up between runs and have to respect the win at Morphetville four runs back i believe. Key is back to 3YO grade racing today and claim from a positive barrier. Gutsy type.
Chiavari: Last two starts has flown home and missed from out the back. Up to 1200m obviously ideal today and any rain will only suit.. but doesn’t need it either. Clearly shown to have ability and likes this track. Can sit handy midfield from barrier with D Oliver onboard.
Mossbeat: Very very good run first up over the unsuitable 1100m distance. Up to 1200m today should suit just a load better today. Has the ability to measure up with the best of them from what we have seen in the past… and first up was a great run. Issue with barrier 12 should see her out the back.. or knowing Mr Williams, 3-wide.
All About Rhythm: Lightly raced type with ability. Ran home very well for 5th last start at Flemington when led… but this is much harder in reality and i couldn’t have for anything but a place.
Cataleya: Only won a maiden to date. Did run 2nd at MV two runs back with a very low weight. This looks a harder task from the barrier today but has shown some ability so can’t fully discount.
TheLittleRacketeer: One run last prep and ran well enough to suggest improvement this prep… but how much can you read into all of it? Moody can be a sneaky bugger with these types can’t he. Has been backed.
All Aussie: One run and win on the Synthetic. This is OBVIOUSLY a much harder task to measure up today.. did trial well previous to that win around some very good types.
Courtside: Two strong trials coming into prep. Ran well enough first up in much easier grade for 2nd then last start on heavy ran well also once again. Big step up again today but weighted to have every chance if good enough.
Northern Fury: Two runs for two wins over in Wagga in maiden and CL1 grade. Massive step up today but those ratings will actually mean she measures up well here from the barrier at the weights. Halved in price since opening.
Cinnamon Carter: Maiden win last prep over 2000m.. can’t see this distance in the horse.
Comic Miss: Well beaten at Flemington with a very good ride last start. Maiden only winner… struggle to suggest on what we have seen to date.
High Diamonds: 4L winner on the Synthetic last start at Geelong over 1300m… previous run 6th… Hard horse to rate but does have ability… just not overly convinced it’s in this grade just yet?
White House Lady: Not the worst runner today but form suggests will find at very least one too good today from barrier.
Comments: Looks to be about 4-5 key chances on ratings in this one today. On my ratings with a closer to the middle/speed run, Chiavari looks very hard to beat today with Oliver onboard with a dream run from barrier 3.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Chiavari E/W
