Caulfield Race 3
Radical: Ignore the run last start in the fact that he jumped poorly and got too far back to win.. it was a good run and eye-catching. Two back run at MV was a very good win worthy of following. Looks a great chance today if no issues in running.
Heavy: No issues today with the distance based on previous runs. Up in class and doesn’t look very well weighted is the concern today.
Purreal: ignore run last start when had heart issue. Back back unlucky not to get a clear run at Geelong. Have to improve today and barrier does suck, but has shown enough to suggest he can run well.
Statue of Warriors: Took a while to break through in BM-64 class this prep but finally got there last start at Moe. Straight up to 3YO class and 2000m looks ambitious.
Piran: 6L 2000m maiden winner last prep over 2000m… favourite last start at Flemington over the 2000m after a 2.5L strong win at Seymour previous start but found very little in her run. Certainly an inconsistent type but she rates very well here and from barrier one maps well.
Winchester Club: 8 length maiden winner at Cranbourne then knocked up 6L 7th in BM-64 last start. Had a lot go wrong and was galloped on, but key was back to firm ground and that may just not suit… firm today again.
Blackjack Bella: Thought she improved very well to run a fair race last start at Flemington when 2.8L 6th. Has to improve again to measure up here though.
Gilchrist: Looking for the 2000m from everything i saw last start! Out the back and let go early to get to the front too far out and still stuck on for 3rd. Very good run and looked a talented type in the making. Good odds on potential up to the distance.
Temps Voleur: Five runs this prep for a combined 51.5 lengths defeat. Hasn’t got within 7 lengths.
Betsy: Big maiden win and then close 2nd in 3F-LR grade… then had a spell and not shown us a lot since. Can’t have on recent form but does obviously have potential.
Skyfire: Big step up last start at Flemington and blocked for run but came home flying.. was blocked for a run also! Has ability but does need to improve.
Stratierra: Couldn’t win a maiden last start an issue but obviously trainer believes better over further.
Comments: Not overly confident betting here at all. Think Radical is probably the horse to beat but i can’t take the odds. Piran is the value on the E/W
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Piran E/W
