Distant Dreams: Outclassed last start when ridden off the speed strangely. Expect to be on speed today from positive barrier and step back to 1600m ideal compared to the 2000m last start. Best runs in past have been on a Good track and finally gets that today (still handy on a wet track). Looks a huge price especially if the rail is playing to leaders considering none of the favourites will be on speed.
Spirit of Heaven: Had her chance last start at Moonee Valley when just beaten by First Bloom from a spot just off the speed. Barrier 10 doesn’t look exactly ideal and a fair few inside have speed to keep her out. Will most likley be going back and best runs have been on the softer surfaces.
Dig a Pony: Loves to run a race and not win this prep it seems. Last two runs have both been very solid being completely honest but her best runs on previous form are clearly on softer tracks than this one today. Will get trapped the rails from barrier 1 and need a very good ride to get the win here.
Stylish Miss: Well into her prep, had to go to Adelaide last start to find a nice win in ‘harder’ company but not so sure it was. Goes well on all surfaces but best runs have been on softer the last three starts. Have to consider.
It’s One: Last three runs haven’t been good enough to measure up to this level of race today and i’m happy to take her on.
Godspiel: Good enough win last start at Sale. Horse that ran 2nd has since failed in harder company at favourite. Needs to improve lengths to beat this lot.
Magnus Slipper: Very nice win last start at Sandown but certainly didn’t have to beat a lot. New jockey on a concern for me, never like seeing such a change. Up in class here has to improve but will get a nice run today from barrier. Best seen on wetter.
Shadow of The Mist: Will be on speed with Distant Dreams today. Doesn’t exactly like to set the world alight and may just get an easy time out front. Goes well enough on good tracks but not sure she is the best horse in this race and has placed just once in this class from 8 starts previous.
Holy Cow: Didn’t handle the heavy track first up it seems. Schofield on for his first ride on the horse, she clearly showed alot of ability three preps back… has the ability to win but struggle to suggest. Barrier doesn’t help.
Domino Vitale: Seemed to have every chance last start from position in running but wasn’t good enough. Happy to take her on against these today. Only thing in her favour is the dryer track today.
Takeover: Ran a blinder last start at MV for 4th… has the ability to run well again out on speed but certainly needs to improve again to win.
Comments: The favourites will be giving Distant Dreams lengths coming into the straight and while she is top weight, i think the rail will be playing well enough to give her every chance back on the dryer track at massive double figure odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Distant Dreams E/W
