Lazyaxl: Surprisingly led last start after not being on speed the previous 9 runs. Won by 3.75L but that was a Heavy 8 track. Rain will come but not to the extent required to get us beyond a Soft 5. Outside barrier so will have to work to get forward if they decide to.
Liberty Island: Hard to talk poorly of his last start run when 3rd to Raposo at Flemington last start. Previous run was solid also at Flemington behind Dodging Bullets, but even off the last two runs, you have to question his will to win considering he was well beaten both runs with every chance in both races. Will be there or there abouts… barrier doesn’t help.
Volcanic Ash: Maps as the only real potential leader today and from barrier 8 will not have to work very hard to get a spot. Stays at 1400m which is key today and any track condition seems to suit having won on a Good 4 last start to a Heavy 8 first up while Soft 7 run two back was 0.1L defeat to a top class form horse. Rates as a Group 1 horse going forward for mine over this distance if continues to improve. Feels like my most confident bet for some time based on previous runs and this grade of race.
He’s A Given: A long time between wins in CL2 Heavy 8 conditions up in Sydney. Best performance since was 2.2L 3rd at Randwick and was well beaten two back by Volcanic Ash and last start by Raposo when near last. Looks to have had enough.
Strong Hand: Heavy 10 winner last start and previous to that Soft 7 winner in maiden class. Step up again today and rates a chance, but have to question dryer track form up to this grade from that barrier.
Arabian Beauty: Two runs this prep and yet to win. Last start effort was sufficient to measure up to this grade today but has to improve clearly on that run to be threatening to take it out.
Benny Dee: Three runs this prep… best was two back when actually ran well out the front at Flemington with a perfect run but just missed when 2nd. Much harder race today though… suspect the rain hurts chances.
Dollars Not Sense: Maiden only winner on Synthetic first up. Didn’t blow us away but does come into this with 52kg… but time was very plain for the race considering 1380m.
King’s Command: Going okay enough this prep after a first up maiden win, throat issue 2nd up when well beaten in a high quality race on Heavy and returned back with a nice 2nd to Spirit Cent last start at Pakenham. Will be on speed and can improve up to the 1400m.
Vienna Prince: Long way off them into 4th on a Heavy 8 at MV last start. Previous run in similar easier company headed out at Mornington and was well beaten three back at Flemington.. Has to pull a trick outta the bag today.
Hell on Earth: Solid enough run first up over the 1200m when 3.35L 4th in similar grade of race. Comes in low at the weights which certainly helps today and has to be considered up in distance today 2nd up.
Renaudin: Only win too date was in a maiden on the Geelong Synthetic. Last start back on Synthetic well beaten in much easier class than this. Take him on.
Volontiers: Came back well enough with a long priced win first up at Pakenham on the Synthetic. Up in class last start ran 2nd but wasn’t disgraced. Certainly will be on speed today from the inside barrier and looks well weighted, but has to improve significantly on ratings to win. Can place.
Tatamagouche: Maiden runner who really shouldn’t be in this race until the horse can actually win. Take on.
Comments: Volcanic Ash is the clear standout today. Looks the only horse that should clearly be out the front today, but the great thing about the horse is how adaptable to the track condition and speed he is… so if someone wants to take him on, he can just slot in for a sit. Price of $3.80 put up on Wednesday was massive and I launched into it. Word of warning on Volcanic Ash, he may look like he is beaten on the turn or in the straight as he has the ability to be hard to get going and switches off before going boom… could trade very high in running. It’s important to note that this place was a 95% confidence play on Wednesday for me as tweeted… with the price having come into $2.90 best around now, it has gone back to 90%… there is still a huge amount of value in the price as i have the horse rated MUCH shorter.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Volcanic Ash to win.
