1. Bishop’s Castle: Expect to roll forward. Two very good runs to start the prep at MV and Flemington but since then last two starts were very poor on soft surfaces. Top weight… hard to find.
2. Inspector: Awkward barrier should see him find a midfield position if not slightly closer to the speed. Last two runs well beaten in harder races… back in this rating race three back just missed. Can go okay here.
3. Real Time: Went through the grades very well last prep and finished it off with a very nice win up north at the Gold Coast. Good barrier today should see him well positioned… has a big upside.
4. Sir Berus: Ran ‘well’ first up down the Flemington straight when never exactly a chance and finished off into 5th. Up to 1200m today will certainly suit better than the 1000m but is clearly best over 1400m on past runs. Has to use the gate advantage to have a chance.
6. Cross of Gold: Two very poor runs at Geelong then bounced back last start at Flemington when ran nicely for 2nd in this class over 1400m. Back to 1200m questionable but rates nicely in this. Barrier the key issue.
7. Reddamour: Very good 2nd up record and has won twice before in this class. First up run was fine and up to 1200m will be a positive. Certainly has to improve from that first run but does have the ability.
8. Belorum: Very consistent horse only missing a place in 2 of his last 9 races (both 4ths) while winning four of those. Finished off last prep in much harder grade than this where he got back to last and was blocked for runs when running a very valid 3rd. Never won first up is a big issue but certainly always runs well still. Did get back to R-58 grade last prep and best runs were over further.
9. Orient Line: Well backed favourite first up over the 1000m at Flemington but well beaten even though blocked for runs. Well up in the weight here today back in class… should run better today but you do have to have questions after that first up run. Is a 3YO winner over 1400m… 1200m should be fine but best run clearly his peak is over 1400m. May not have handled the soft.
10. Written: Will be going forward from out wide. Ran very well in mares grade last start from out the front over the 1400m at Flemington. If the track is a Good 4 by jump time i’d have to give her a very good chance on what i’ve seen this prep going back to this grade.
11. Smokin’ Al: Well up in grade last start at Flemington and up to 1400m simply found a few too good on what looked a down run. Rates very well here today on two previous runs. Tricky barrier the issue. Expect them to try push forward to give every chance.
12. Sentfromthestars: Poor run first up at Flemington. Hard to have on what we saw there.. but she did run 0.8L 2nd in F&M class at Flemington last prep… but that race didn’t rate very well overall. Hard horse to rate today.
13. Squeaky Squirrel: Won well first up on a heavy track then just missed last start as favourite on a soft track at Seymour. Well up in grade here today but no reason why he can’t run well from a good barrier.
14. Kayjay’s Joy: Always promised to be a good horse from what we saw up in Sydney. Got her Victorian career off on the right note with a win at Geelong and rates well today to make the jump up again to another grade.
15. Northern Saint: Ran home nicely enough for 4th at Flemington in harder company. Previous run at course and distance did similar off a low weight. Barrier makes it very hard to see her positioning well enough to win without riding for luck and getting a gem.
16. Roll The Ignition: Had every possible chance out the front last start at Caulfield and was very poor failing to get within 6L of the winner. A little sting out should suit… we know her best is good enough to rate well but it’s hard to trust her here. Good barrier.
17. Matagami: First emergency – Won 3 in a row before well beaten last start by Lord Esprit when further back than expected and blocked for runs. Obviously has ability and good barrier.
18. Lord Esprit: Got the win over Matagami last start. Horrible barrier and will be far back. Hard to have really from draw.
19. Master Sommelier: Hong Kong galloper sent back over here to Hayes stable. Measured up with a win in CLS3 class which is good enough to win this if finds similar form. Hasn’t been seen in over 10 months.
20. Amiconi Originale: A little stiff to be 4th emergency in this field considering past two runs. Going very well and would be a chance from a better barrier.
Comments: This is actually one of the worst betting events i’ve seen all year on a metro card in terms of the horses involved, barriers and just in general how competitive the race is. Even if i was several beers deep on track (i most likely will), i would have 0 desire to be putting stolen money down on this race. All that being said, I’ll give you a tip and it’s on the most progressive horse in the race in Real Time. Looks the only way I could bet into this race on the E/W if talking about it.
Confidence 10%
Strategy: Real Time E/W
