Gear Changes: Craftiness – Winkers First Time, Sabatini – Concussion Plates First Time, The Mosntar – Norton Bit Off, The Thief – Blinkers First Time.
2. Kuro: Had no luck first up so hard to judge just how well the horse is going. Wide barrier today makes things a bit awkward to get a perfect spot in running. May just push forward which for mine would be best for the horse. If tactics are to go forward, then winning is very possible.
3. Hard Stride: Ran some decent races last prep with just the one win in much easier class, but it was a classy win. Will be pushing for the lead today from barrier 4 and looks to get it on mapping. Goes well at track and only goes well on Good tracks it appears which helps. Will be putting the speed on in the race.
4. Unanimously: Very poor run first up. Poor barrier today will make it very hard to get a good spot in running. Form from last prep in open class obviously good enough but struggle to back on that first up run and barrier today.
5. Craftiness: Has been well backed. Good run 2nd to Shiraz last start at Randwick when first up. Back to a firmer track today may just do the trick with best runs on firmer tracks. Will be pushing forward and handles brutal tempo out front.
6. Rock Royalty: Surrpise winner to end the prep at Grafton beating Barbed. First up record is okay but last prep improved into runs. Only a small spell so should still be fit i’d suggest. Barrier helps to get a good run just off the leaders.
7. Sea Lord: Not in this class today off the last few runs. Won’t get the lead.
8. The Quarterback: Not the worst run in the race last start at Moonee Valley but was well beaten. Has quite a few issues, i’m happy to take him on.
9. Sabatini: Looked a very very good type last prep first and second run in beating some good types over distance at track. Out into open grade needs to be peaking to measure up. Will get further back than i’d want.
10. The Monstar: Consistent type who continues to run well in open grade, but not sure he is this level. Take on.
11. The Thief: The name says it all. Take him on.
12. Tristram’s Sun: Needs further.
14. Durendal: Very talented horse and he proved his worth as a 3YO with some very good wins at course and distance and was a brave third up at Doomben to finish the prep.
Comments: A rough race to pick the winner in. Kuro is a good horse, but the speed map has him getting caught 3-wide or having to spend all his gas to get the lead and i just can’t take him here. Craftiness is obviously a good horse also but i have to question his ability not to beat Shiraz last start. Is he really going as well as the odds suggest? Sabatini looks unders on my ratings and is a big take on. Durendal is a talented up and comer but i couldn’t take $10 for him either. The one horse that stands out on his top quality ability for mine is Hard Stride. If he is at his best today from this barrier he gets the best run of the race. He goes well at the track and he destroyed Moment of Change in a very classy display two preps back showing just how good he really can be. His best is good enough and the odds are big today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Hard Stride E/W
