1. Takedown: 4th to Exosphere last start at Randwick. Found his way to the line ‘just okay’. Step up to 1400m based on last prep x2 Group 3 wins suggest we should see improvement here.
2. Metallic Crown: Disappointing run on speed last start in the Guineas Prelude and didn’t contest the Guineas after that. Previous runs on softer ground were good enough to measure up in this class.
3. Holler: Had 6kg on the winner last start in BM-80 grade as favourite but was claimed late beaten a length. Have to improve based on last start run to rate well enough to win this.
4. Mr Individual: Flying right now. Got away with an easy kill first up when controlling the tempo and the horse settled down for once actually racing like a normal horse. Obviously has to improve to beat all of these today but he is on the right track based on the Guineas Prelude run.
5. Flying Light: Easy kill first up in maiden class. Last start in much harder class at Flemington was solid when finding the line well 2 lengths off the win. Has to improve but has shown the ability.
6. Santa Ana Lane: Well backed today after two strong wins. Went around $1.35 favourite last start and won with ease. Off the pace and should have the race run to suit out front.
7. Mahuta: Two decent maiden runs coming into last start when up to 1450m and he absolutely killed them from on speed. Won’t get an easy lead if they go for it today. Has to improve but has shown signs of being a good horse.
8. Comeback: Couldn’t win a maiden so it’s hard to suggest a win here.
Comments: A much harder race than it appears on paper. Can you really take the shorts for Santa Ana Lane? I think you have to take the horse on here. Mr Individual won’t have the race run to suit… i do think the horse is slight value at the prices but i can’t touch it. Takedown appeals the most of any runner in this race for me. His run last start behind Exosphere was a good lead in to this today up to the perfect distance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Take Down to win.
