Gear Changes: Scream Machine – Cross Over Noseband Again, Crime Fighter – Blinkers Off Again, Schockemohle – Norton Bit Off & Cross Over Noseband on
1. Rugged Cross: Very disappointing run last start at Hawksbury when beaten by The Offer who has failed to win in two runs since. Ruggy doesn’t win out of turn and this is the level he runs in all the time. 3 runs for 3 places at this track. Barrier means probably further back than they would want.
2. Rhythm to Spare: Very disappointing run first up when out the back and didn’t make up much ground even with the hard tempo that should have suited. May have simply resented the soft ground and back to firmer track today is expected to run much better. Only 1 win from 5 starts at track with 0 placing outside that, but a few were good runs in Group 1s. Best recently seen later into preps.
3. Scream Machine: Takes a while to get into his preps having never won first or second up. First up run was fairly average and needs the run again today i’d suggest.
4. Good Value: Nice enough run last start at course over 1800m with top weight finding the line well off a strong tempo, but just not good enough. Back to 1400m a bit of a change up and this type of change up has been working wonders for other trains over the past 3 months. Best run this prep was over this distance. Maps well from barrier.
5. Lord Durante: Short backup last start and very well backed at Moonee Valley and just missed in a close 2nd to Digitalism. Similar weight today but back to 1400m.. just looks a tad too short for me to be confident in backing him.
6. Moonovermanhattan: Seemed to have every possible first up over the 1200m which really isn’t his distance, but the reality of the matter is he does race better from closer to the speed with his last wins being just that. Needs further than this 1400m i’d suggest also to find his best. 3 runs at distance 0 places, 4 runs at track 0 places. Still, can win.
7. Page Rock: No luck last start at Caulfield when blocked for runs and really had no luck or opportunity. previous runs this prep suggest he obviously has the ability to win and step up to 1400m looks positive.
8. Crime Fighter: Last run was over 3200m. Safe to say he just needs further than this. Shock if he won this.
9. Schockemohle: Old mate had a very poor last prep. Previous prep obviously good enough to measure up here, but first run at track first up over a distance short of his best, you have to take him on.
10. Killarney Kid: Talented horse who simply needs 2000m+ to find his absolute best. I’d be surprised to see him fit enough to win this with better runs to come over the Spring prep.
Comments: Certainly an open race, with a horse having to stand up and be seen to win this today. You can discount several runners off the bat due to the distance, which is identified in the betting. With the claim, Pago Rock looks the best weighted here and there is no question about the horse being fit enough to take this out.
Confience: 65%
Strategy: Pago Rock E/W
