Caravan Rolls On: Proven as a top class horse over distances in Australia. Lightly raced all things considered and last prep showed he can win over 2400m. First up over 2000m should run well but certainly have to remember best is over further and is poorly weighted giving others many kgs.
Ruscello: First up found absolutely nothing over 1600m. No surprise that he didn’t find much first up but has decent enough 2nd up form and runs well over this distance with 1 win and 4 places from 7 starts over similar. Has the ability if can find 2013 form.
Diametric: There has been a big opinion of this bloke the last two starts, been tipped up that it should have been winning both times but have avoided the horse so to speak both times from what i’ve seen. Thought his run last start had alot of merit and should be peaking 3rd up today.
At First Sight: Well backed last start at MV on a soft track surprisingly but failed to get close to the win. Back to a firmer track today could see him run much better today… but have to remember his 3 runs have been 4L, 4L and 3L off this prep.
Danchai: Last two runs have been quite poor… but that was on a soft and heavy surface. Last win was on a Good track and should get that today. Back down in the weights to 55kg and inside barrier. Would be foolish to write him off.
Our Voodoo Prince: Not won in a long time. Has run well enough this prep but struggle to suggest a win today.
Freshwater Storm: Loves Caulfield but 2000m surely not his best distance on previous form… bit did run okay two back at Flemington… can place.
Secessio: Found nothing the last two runs… but previous run was very good at course/distance. Good track should suit based on previous form… but has to improve even on that 3 back run.
Gingerboy: Thought he had every chance last start at Flemington in easier company… ran well but not good enough. Barrier and track should help his chances out the front today.
Comments: An interesting way to open the day. Surprised to see Gingerboy a clear 2nd favourite, have the horse much longer in my markets and even At First Sight doesn’t rate a $5 chance for me. Diametric rates a short priced favourite here for me while Danchai rates as the clear value in the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Diametric to win. Smaller bet Danchai.
