1. Mihalic: Sat off speed first up at course over 1200m last start and ran through the line well enough to suggest a distance increase today will be ideal. Has to improve.
2. Pearl Star: Only good run this prep was at course and distance two runs back when got the lead off an only fair tempo and still found 3 better that day. Won’t be getting the lead today either without a lot of work.
3. Air Apparent: Very poor run when leading last start at Flemington in the Edward Manifold. Not how the horse should be ridden in my humble. Will be ridden quieter today with a sit. Back to 1400m ideal. Has the ability.
4. Italy: Put up as favourite but that quickly changed. Three runs this prep and yet to place. Solid enough run last start at Rosehill 2.2L off the winners but clearly has to improve on that run to even place.
5. Andrioli: Well backed into favourtism at Bendigo last start but found one simply too good. Not the worst horse going around today but has to improve to be considered a chance.
6. Hell or Highwater: Strong maiden win first up, but last start wasn’t suited by the sit and sprint style at Moonee Valley. Looking for the step up to 1400m today… going well.
7. Purrpussful: Making her way through the grades, her win last start at Mornington wasn’t that much of a surprise in that grade. Much harder this.
8. Timely Girl: Sale maiden winner last start and it wasn’t by much. Has to find much more for this.
9. Silent Sedition: favourite yet she is still a maiden. Stormed home well last start at course over 1200m for second. Maps out the back but suited.
10. Young Amazon: Continues to run well without winning in easier grade. Not for me.
11. Strangest Dream: Not the worst run first up in maiden class from a poor barrier out the back. Can run well today.
Comments: Rough race to start the day. Can’t go past Hell or Highwater up to this distance today based on previous runs in harder company.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Hell or Highwater Each-Way
