Gear Changes: Matilija – Blinkers First Time, Tahni Dancer – Winkers Off, Thinking of You – Blinkers Off.
1. Atmospherical: Trialled well leading into first up run at Randwick and was well backed into $7 but failed to get close finishing off okay but not impressing. A while between drinks… very high weight in this grade today even with claim.
2. Afleet Esprit: Ran well enough first up when 4th at Sandown. 22 days between run and has been training the house down at home. Down to 57kg with claim and looks well in from the barrier. Expect to be ridden for luck. Goes well at track.
3. Lesley’s Choice: Disappointing run last start at Caulfield when all the front runners fell out of the race. Much better seen two back at Doomben but hard to back based on first run in Melb even though she is going forward.
4. Nautical: Hard horse to catch. Best runs seen over further than 1100m in the past, but she is certainly handy enough to be a threat today. Barrier is horrible.
5. Beach Front: Two horrible runs and then last start returned to form in a more forward run beaten by Fell Swoop and Griante ran home for 3rd. Hard to ignore the form lines of those two horses around her. We know from past runs she has ability, barrier 13 not ideal but will roll forward again. Does have to improve.
6. Pittsburgh Flyer: Lightly raced 4yo. Measured up last prep with a strong win over Earthquake at Flemington, but was getting 7kg weight swing that day. Went well up in the ratings after that and failed to get close to a place three runs after that on wetter tracks. Best runs on dry tracks. Will get a nice sit from the barrier.
7. Pilly’s Wish: Good consistent little horse who always gives 100%, but since coming up to these harder races seems to always find a few too good. Awkward barrier again today doesn’t help. Has the ability to go close but expect to get midfield at best in run.
8. Fiftyshadesofgrey: First up run was decent 1.8L 4th to Sultry Feeling hitting the line okay but next start well beaten 6th in harder company by Catkins. Best runs in past on wetter tracks.
9. Japhils: Two back won well at course and similar distance, but didn’t beat much that day. Ran nicely last start at Sandown but found two too good. 53.5kg today should give her every chance with the way the rail is expected to play, especially if pushed along from the turn.
10. Catch That Cat: Solid enough run first up and previous prep did look an improving type. Up in class again today a concern from a poor barrier.
11. Matilija: Well backed today and from barrier 8 off 52kg looks to get a clean run about 3 horses back off the rails. Goes well on all surfaces and last prep got a win over a handy type in Vezalay. First up I thought she had every possible chance and wasn’t good enough. Blinkers go on but certainly has to find lengths for mine.
12. Tahni Dancer: Hold me closer… never won first up and best runs in the past have been over 1400m+. One to take on today.
Comments: I struggle to see why Matilija is the favourite today and i’m very happy to take the horse on. The same goes for Atmospherical at the weights, it’s hard to back anything with that weight here. Pittsburgh Flyer looks a key chance in this race, but the price doesn’t leave any room for profit. The two standouts are Japhils and Beach Front. Japhils will get the gun rails run leading them all the way and with such a low weight, Beriman can boot Japhils home and never be passed. Beach Front was very good last start and has the further improvement required today to be in the finish from a positive position in running.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Japhils to win. Smaller bet Beach Front.
