Gear Changes: Stoker – Ear Muffs First Time & Pacifiers First Time, Destiny’s Reward – Blinkers First Time, Dynamic Day – Ear Muffs First Time
Stoker: I think we really have to ignore his first up run and rate on last start at course and distance when he measured up to this class running wide in the race for a 1.3L 5th. Back in class here and a more positive barrier, he looks well in at the weights.
Ability: With a name like that, it appears the owners knew something! 3L win at Sale in a maiden coming into this race but the time run didn’t exactly break any records. Obviously has to measure up to the next stage here.
Bassett: Beat Kinglike in his first prep at course and distance and then ran 2.3L 5th as favourite in the 2YO Group 1 at Doomben. First up today, appeals strongly.
4. Destiny’s Reward: Hard to see him measuring up here today on the three runs in this prep. Yes first up he ran okay behind Demonstrate but still didn’t get close. Take on.
5. Keen Array: Have to respect this horse. 7L winner at Geelong in a maiden and then took another easy kill at Pakenham winning by 8 lengths. First step up into this grade, certainly no one hit wonder and the firm track looks ideal. Could be the real deal. Good barrier.
6. Mawahibb: Dominated Demonstrate to finish off last prep at Moonee Valley. Demonstrate has come back and proved to be a very good horse so you have to have a bit of confidence in Mawahibb’s ability here today.
8. Well Sighted: Won a 2YO race at Sale at nice odds but failed in harder class the next start. First up won a fairly average 1000m race at the bool… D Oliver takes the ride says something as i’m sure he had the chance to ride Stoker.
9. Dynamic Day: Couldn’t win a maiden but then surprised to win a Flemington 2YO race over 1400m very well… certainly iffy form lines this horse, not sure how to race her, all we know is her best performance was over much further.
10. Sweet Redemption: Maiden only winner to date. Failed to measure up first up in 3F-LR class when on speed, this looks harder.
Comments: Stoker, Ability, Bassett, Keen Array and Mawahibb look to be the five runners here contesting for the win based on raw ability and the market agrees. I have a huge opinion of Stoker and while i think the $4.4 to place is value, i can’t be on him in this level of race. The jury is out for mine on just how good Ability is and we will find out today, so i’m willing to take him on. We know Bassett is a good horse, but how will he have returned today? I think Mawahibb will test them today but the barrier has him a run short for mine. Keen Array is third up with two very impressive wins under his belt and he looks rock hard fit… the times all suggest he is a serious horse and the real deal. Very classy race so can’t be confident on a bet.
Confience: 70%
Strategy: Keen Array to win.
