Welcome to The Profits preview for the moved Sunday meeting at Caulfield on 7 January 2018. The rail moves from the 6m position to the True on a track that will be a Good 3 at worst because of such a hot day on Saturday. Expecting a fair track but as the day goes on i’d expect the track to become really firm so it will start depending on tempos of races later in the day. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Keen – 4 units @ $3.50. La Volt – 3 units @ $4.50
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Manolo Blahniq – 5 units @ $4.20 to win
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 6 – Miles of Krishan – 2 units to win. 3 units to place @ $6.50/$2.00
Other Bet
Caulfield Race 5 – Tykiato – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $5.00/$1.91
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 11, 18
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 8, 13, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 6, 8, 12, 14, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1800m – Maree Madden-Melder Handicap – BM-78
2. Royal Applause: Three wins in a row this prep. Back in class here off the wins. Maps very well.
3. Hot Ruby: Two of last three runs have bene great without winning. Stays at this class.
4. Heavenly Descent: Two solid seconds in a row the last two starts. Just missed behind Royal Applause last start. Can improve and will lead.
5. Addison: Nice winner last start at Caulfield for the Hayes stable. Was a big run and big improvement. Progressive type.
6. Bonus D’oro: Gone close the past few starts and has been backed on quite a few occasions. Up to 1800m again.
7. Rising Hope: Won two back at Bendigo. Beaten 0.3L last start at Caulfield just missing. Well weighted today and good jockey change and barrier.
8. Stormy Shore: Synthetic winner three back and failed to fire on grass since. Hard to take here.
9. Shenandoah: Four runs this prep. Last start was a great on speed run at Caulfield and just run down late. Well in at weights.
10. So Splendid: Wide throughout and pushed on a long way out. Fought it out to the line. Big run.
Comments: Tough race to start the day. Shenandoah, Royal Applause and Heavenly Descent are the three standouts.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Shenandoah and Royal Applause.
Caulfield Race 2 – 2000m – Annette Daymon Handicap – BM-78
1. O’lonera: Comes into this race with the best career stats of any runner. They went really hard out front and he just didn’t see it out well. No disgrace the run at all and doesn’t look anywhere near as much speed today.
2. Snitzelwood: Two runs this prep and while presented well in the yard on both occasions, has failed to measure up to previous preps best marks. Down in class and up in distance suits. Only natural leader.
3. Portion Control: Looked great in the yard last start just like Golden Mane and ran a better race overall. Golden Mane won since and step up to 2000m looks ideal.
4. Bondeiger: Doesn’t win.. well ever? 2 wins from 24 runs and hasn’t won in a long long time. Last start run over 1500m ran well third.
5. Andrea Mantegna: Strong run last start 2nd behind Netherfield at Caulfield. Stays at the distance and goes well in this grade.
6. Shards: Five runs this prep. First up placed at Morphetville but last four runs didn’t place and last start was average at best.
8. Angelucci: Two runs in a row in easier classes than this. The last start run beat some decent types with the perfect run and a good type failing. This stable has a great strike rate here.
9. Fontein Lad: Non-winner. Every chance last three starts as favourite or second favourite. Hard for me to have here.
10. Beach God: Bm-64 grade winner last start. Nice tpy ebut huge improvement needed.
Comments: Angelucci, Andrea Mantegna, Portion Control and O’Lonera are the four to choose from here. Those 4 also come in with the best last start runs while Bondeiger could certainly run a solid race but is hard to find here. I’m expecting Snitzelwood to lead them around a few lengths faster than average but nothing out of this world. I’m just not convinced Angelucci is top class and I have to take it on even with the great draw. Andrea Mantegna is too short in the market. Portion Control and O’Lonera are the two to beat and for mine Portion Control is the one to beat in this market.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Portion Control E/W
Caulfield Race 3 – 1100m – Sam Segma Handicap BM-70
1. Lady Magnus: Two runs two wins. Beat some real good types along the way as well. Real deal.
2. Aeecee Tong De: Two runs this prep for a very nice win up in Sydney and then a close 2nd being run down late by Bel Sonic last start. Good type and back to 1100m ideal from barrier.
3. Ultra Smart: Mornington winner before ending last prep. First up here.
4. Teleplay: Maiden winner at Kilmore and then ran very well 3rd last start behind Bel SOnic and Aeecee Tong De.
5. Lucky Cat: Bendigo maiden winner – just got there – time was ok but not super.
6. Magnesium Rose: Two runs this prep beaten over 1l+ on both occasions. Big step up again.
7. Cheeky Reward: Echuca winner in a Maiden last start. Has to improve again.
8. Hard Faith: First up runner but never won first up in the past. Only won a maiden on synthetic.
9. Simeulue: Strong win last start in maiden grade at Mornington.
10. Falling Waters: Took 6 runs to get the win last start. Another step up.
Comments: Lady Magnus is an impressive type and the standout here for me to improve. The barrier is the only negative but i’m hoping they can run on at Caulfield on this card, at least early on.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lady Magnus E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Sandra Cheevers Handicap
1. Carlingford: Won 7 races ago but since has been competing in similar grade and just missing.
2. Eclair Calling: Two starts two wins this prep and won with ease. Looks a talented type.
3. Fabulonh: Three runs this prep and has disappointed at short odds. Always had ability but has to get the job done.
4. Gee Whizzer: Nice type that won in BM-58 grade two back. Goes well on dry tracks.
5. La Volt: Three runs this prep and has been improving after each run. Made a huge run last start and just missed at Moonee Valley. Better suited here from the barrier.
6. Lyrical Son: Nice trial on lead in. Last few preps failed to get close to this grade.
8. Vegas Boulevard: Three runs this prep. Failed first two runs but last start in similar grade beaten 0.5L 4th. Has to improve but clearly now going well enough.
10. Catchesis: Won last start at Kerang by a large margin. Step up in class back to the city but going nicely enough.
12. Hot Hansel: Won a 0-58 two back at Benalla. Echuca last start on soft failed to fire as fav.
13. Keen: Smashed them first up at Cranbourne in a maiden. Recorded a very solid time. Big chance and great barrier.
14. Mahamedeis: Second to Rising Hope last start. Needs to improve.
Comments: Two clear standouts in Keen and La Volt. Both map very well here from positive barriers and i’m very keen to bet up on both.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Keen – 4 units @ $3.50. La Volt – 3 units @ $4.50
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Alice Mosley Handicap
1. Tykiato: Flew home last start at course and distance and just missed behind Creativity. Not harder here.
2. Brugal Reward: Won very well two back at Ballarat. Last start got too far back and ran home well behind Tykiato and Creativity.
3. Chiavari: Always looks well in the yard. Best on softer tracks than this. Goes well enough at this distance.
4. Essence of Terror: Four runs this prep. Last start ridden upside down and just run down late at Moonee Valley. Barrier 4 expect to sit midfield today and be a true tester.
5. Mamzelle Tess: Good horse. Ran a very nice race first up behind Creativity and Tykiato sticking on strongly from out front. Has to be respected.
7. Invisible Girl: Kennewell runner who has been going well the past two starts. Comes into this well enough at weights. Win three back still in my mind. Good barrier.
8. Certain Ellie: Two disappointing runs the past two starts. Has to improve significantly.
9. Jester Angel: Failed to measure up to this type of grade the past two starts. Have to take on.
10. If Not Now When: Didn’t show a lot last start at Sandown. Two back ridden upside down failed to fire. I have to take on again.
Comments: Tykiato maps very well here and looks hard to beat coming into this off a very strong run. Brutgal Reward, Essence of Terror and Invisible Girl don’t map that great today and will need the speed on out front.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Tykiato – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $5.00/$1.91
Caulfield Race 6 – 1600m – Matthew Davies Handicap
1. Bel Burgess: Led them around last start at a fierce pace and couldn’t hnadle it in the end. Change of jockey and will clearly be able to judge the pace better.
2. Widgee Turf: Two runs this prep and won both with relative ease. Harder race here from the barrier.
3. Orient Line: Strong win last start ridden to lead and ride the bias. Up in distance but clearly has to run as well here, harder.
4. Plot the Course: Disappointed first up. Can imporve on that run but hard to see based on last prep now.
5. Royal Ace: 6 runs this prep for 2 wins, both on wet tracks. Needs wetter.
6. War Story: Back from Darwin where he couldn’t get a win. With Cumani 150 days between runs.
7. Le Juge: Disappointing run first up. Previous runs overseas suggested would run better than that. D Oliver keeps the ride for a reason.
8. Miles of Krishan: Five runs this prep and failed to get a win. Beaten 0.1L and 0.3L last two starts.
9. Domino Vitale: Failed to fire first time. Never placed 2nd up in past. Williams keeps the ride.
10. Rib Eye: Five runs this prep. Not the same horse as previous preps and may need to improve.
Comments: Widgee Turf has been lighting up the turf in recent weeks but looks well under the odds here against a higher quality field potentially getting trapped 3 back the rails with Egan as the Jockey. Miles of Krishan has been beaten very small distances the past two starts but is ready to roll today coming out of a different form line. MOK is one of the few with the closing speed match Widgee Turf.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 8
Strategy: Miles of Krishan – 2 units to win @ $6.50. 3 units to place @ $2.00
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Geraldine Camilleri Handicap – BM-70
1. Divine Dice: Strong win on lead in at Seymouyr and previous run 2nd at Moonee Valley was a solid effort. Stays at distance and in the same class. Weighted well with claim and good barrier to sit forward.
2. Wilde Gem: Just missed last start at Caulfield when close 2nd behind Pravro in class and over similar distance. Barrier today doesn’t help much easier but will be going close again.
3. Epic Moment: Won very well last start at Mornington from on speed more forward than expected on the day and ran a near class record time. Stays in class and at distance and from barrier 2 looks really well in here.
4. Manolo Blahniq: Well backed last start at Caulfield in open class when got back and ran on super just missing 0.7L 4th. Back to BM-70 grade today and looks very hard to beat.
5. Sheriff John Stone: Three runs this prep. Just snuck a win at Ararat and then last two strats fairly beaten in easier races than this. Has to improve.
6. Toorak Cowboy: Nice win two back at Werribee but last start at Mornington failed to fire from back in the field. Best is good enough.
7. Wazzenme: Always run well here in the past but never won. Three runs this prep in similar or easier grades but hasn’t gone close to winning. Is good enough to run well here.
8. Game of War: First up today for quality stable. 6L win on soft last prep is the standout but was in easier. Yet to win on Good tracks.
10. Cao Cao: Stable has always held this horse in high regard but hasn never quite shown it on the track. Last start in 3YO grade 4-wide trip 3.3L 6th. Has to improve up to open grade.
11. Prevailing Winds: Nice type of horse. Good win 2 back at Mornington and just beaten from on speed last start at course in 3YO 70 grade. Weir runner. Flying.
13. Barchetta: FMB-64 winner last start on soft. Huge jump in class this one. Not convinced.
15. Crystal Spirit: 3YO-SWP 4th last start at Moonee Valley behind Bel Sonic. Previous form solid enough in at 51kg.
17. Nina’s Ballerina: BM-64 grade winner on soft last start. Has to improve.
18. Don’t Blush Baby: Fair run last start 2nd to Trogir in BM-64 grade at course and distance. Has to obviously improve onwards again.
Comments: Manolo Blahniq smashed the clock last start flying home in impressive time. Expecting the speed to be on out the front here and Craigy Williams will need to give us a good ride, but if that occurs, this horse will be impossible to hold out. Epic Moment, Wilde Gem, Don’t Blush Baby and Prevailing Winds look the dangers.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 11, 18
Strategy: Manolo Blahniq – 5 units @ $4.20 to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Alex Burrows Handicap – BM-78
1. Dylanson: Five runs this prep and not been close on any occasion. No.
2. King’s Command: Strong run first up over the 1200m when flashed home for 3rd at Mooonee Valley. Suited with step up in distance. Barrier only issue.
4. Act of Valour: Failed to show anything the past two starts. Testing time today back to 1400m. Hard to suggest on current form.
5. Painte: Ran well enough last start at Moonee Valley when couldn’t get better in the yard. Have to take him on here even up to 1400m.
6. Star of Fortune: 3-wide last start at Caulfield behind Ozi Choice when not a bad run all things considered. Win three back would measure up here.
7. Valderrama: Two runs this prep. First up average but last start ran home well enough.
8. Cullingworth: 7 length winner over in the UK (100 timeform rating) prior to spell and move to Weir stable. Should handle this grade no dramas but query over just how good the horse is especially from barrier. On speed type.
9. Data Point: Two runs this prep and failed to get close on either occasion when backed. Was slow out last start but still beaten fairly. Has to improve.
10. I Boogi: Flew home last start on a soft track at Moonee Valley to record a very good win. Best is clearly good enough.
11. Taddei Tondo: Won three back but feel that was just the 1 win he will find again potentially ever. Failed last two starts.
12. I’m Ablaze: Not the worst run first up but not competitive. Has to improve.
13. Simply Splashing: Well in the yard last start at Sandown and just got there. Times were only fair at best.
14. Trogir: Got the charmed run last start and won well at course over 1200m. Up in grade and distance but clearly has ability.
16. The Avenger: Two runs this prep and failed to get close in either. Scratched when 2nd fav last start.
Comments: Wide open race. Think the 4 in the Quaddie numbers are the clear hopes. Have to side with Trogir from what the horse did last start.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 8, 13, 14
Strategy: Trogir E/W
Caulfield Race 9 – 1100m – Jodie Taylor Handicap – BM-84
3. Nasdex: Won well first up at Pakenham and then just missed at Moonee Valley. Front runner suited once again here.
4. Murphy’s Reward: Surprised with a win last start at big odds at Moonee Valley using the bias. Has to improve from bad barrier here.
5. Olivier: Presented okay enough last start but ran poorly once again. Not sure he is going well this prep at all.
6. Revolving Door: First up today. Goes very well at track but never got a win.. been run down late twice in the past. 1100m looks ideal for this horse for mine and goes very well first up.
8. Leodoro: Two solid runs this prep but beaten fairly on both occasions. Has to improve again and barrier doesn’t help.
9. Mogador: Slow out blocked for runs last start beaten 7th behind Murphys Reward. Non-winner.
11. Kirani: Two poor runs after a Bairnsdale win on a Good surface. Goes nicely enough but hard to suggest.
12. Handsome Thief: Bm-75 winner at Morphetville last start at small odds. Spelled and first up today. Lightly raced 5YO with loads of ability.
14. Lord Barrington: On speed last start and fairly beaten. Has to improve here.
16. Angry Gee: Has some ability and ran well three back but on last two starts no chance.
Comments: Handsome Thief is the class runner in this wide open race. Maps awkwardly but looks the winner. Angry Gee is the value.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 6, 8, 12, 14, 16
Strategy: Handsome Thief to win.
