Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 7 January 2017. With a bit of rain around during the week we are expecting the Caulfield track to play quite well tomorrow as always. This looks a fairly straight forward card… while it doesn't ooze huge confidence, there are some solid value prices on offer that we have to play at in the mid single figures. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Cana – 1.75 units @ $4.40. Crystral Dreamer – 2 units @ $4.00
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – In Fairness – 1.75 units @ $5.50 to win
Best Value Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Prussian Vixen – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $23/$4.60
Other Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Invictum Domina – 1.5 units @ $4.20 to win
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – Peter Siggins Plate
1. Kedleston: Started favourite and second favourite both starts this prep when beaten 2.2L and 2.8L. Both runs were good, but he clearly was a long way of a win. More than a month between runs, third up he will need to have improved onwards again.
2. Clear Signal: First starter and very a drifter.
3. Poolside Hamilton: 2YO Maiden run first up at Geelong beaten 3.7L from back in the field. Really hard to have any confidence today.
4. Property: Nicely bred Gelding for the Smerdon stable and he has been backed here.
5. Siam: Very well bred Godolphin colt. One of the key chances in the race today.
6. Catchy: Well backed first up at Moonee Valley and the Hayes stable have clearly stated this is their 2YO for the Blue Diamond. Won impressively from the back at Moonee Valley and from Barrier 4 looks very well suited here.
7. See Me Exceed: Price runner that has had some backing.
Comments: Catchy is the real deal on that first up run and it will take a very good type of horse to knock him off today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Catchy to win.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1100m – Ike Hollingworth Handicap
1. Dance With Fontein: Strong win first up at Moonee Valley and then ran another blinder of a race last start at Sandown in very strong time. Will be well suited here again at Caulfield back in grade.
2. Amadeus: Went back last start from the inside barrier but found a few too good including Dance with Fontein. Well up in weights and has to improve.
4. Our Vidia: Found her form last start at Moonee Valley flashing home from out the back late. Up in class here but still well suited.
5. Mr Dashing: Two runs two wins last prep. First up in similar grade of race in 3YO class found one way too good over 955m. Up to 1100m looks more suitable. Have to respect.
6. Nasdex: Gone around favourite the past three runs and only won once in a maiden grade race. Fairly beaten 1.2L by a very nice type in Derryn. Clearly has ability and has to be respected.
7. Mystified: Strong 955m win last start at Moonee Valley over the shorter distance from off the speed. Back up to over 1100m today a bit of a query up to open class giving Mr Dashing many KGs. Has to improve.
8. Powerful Story: Only won one race in the past but has clearly measured up to higher class than this. First up run beaten by a good type in easier. Has to find more here.
9. Strictly Legit: Smashed them first up in maiden company at Mornington by 3.8L. Clearly above average.
10. Call Me Tess: Maiden winner and hasn't gone within 2.9L since then over the other 5 runs. Back in class here certainly and has shown to have some ability, but it's a big ask first up. Is down in the weights.
Comments: This is a very interesting race with several horses on the up. The only way I could touch this race would be a place bet on Dance with Fontein. There are several winning chances on best ability.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Dance with Fontein to place.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Raymond Deagan Handicap
1. Murt the Flirt: Well backed favourite last start at Caulfield and failed to fire ridden off the speed. Won over 1400m three back. Back in class today significantly at the course he won at last… yet more than double the price of last start in higher grade. Nicely weighted with claim.
3. Chivalry: Hasn't won since the stoneage. Last prep only close run was on Heavy. Better over further.
4. Danuki: Continues to run very well this prep. Last start went a little too far up in class and was first time down the straight. Back in grade and maps nicely on speed. Has the ability to run well.
5. Crystal Dreamer: Two starts for two wins this prep in easier company. Both wins were very solid over the 1000m distance. No reason why he can't take the step up again today after a very solid win.
6. Bon Rocket: 0.1L 2nd to My Survivor last start at Flemington and that race has produced a winner since. Up in grade here and has to improve onwards 2nd up.
7. Royal Spinner: BM-64 grade winner in nice time last start at Colac. Certainly has to find lengths to measure up to this field today but the last two starts were smart.
8. Cana: Hawkes runner that never runs a bad race. Been in higher class to start the prep and dropped back to similar class to this today the past two starts for a win and 0.1L 2nd. Will be on speed and hard to get past. 5 runs at Caulfield for 0 wins a bit of a concern.
10. Atlantic City: Kav stable runner and stable hasn't exactly been flying. First up run was respectable but clearly beaten on the day fairly easy. Hard to suggest.
Comments: Cana, Crystal Dreamer, Danuki and Murt the Flirt are the four runners that standout on my ratings here. Murt the Flirt looks an attractive price today but there is still a big query over the horse at 1200m with top weight. Danuki is in a grade of race where he has never measured up previously and is higher up in the weights than a few others that are chances. Cana and Crystal Dreamer are the two top raters here. Cana maps to have the dream run while Crystal Dreamer will have to sit a little further back today than normal.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Cana – 1.75 units @ $4.40. Crystral Dreamer – 1.75 units @ $4.00
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Margot McCluskey Handicap
1. Kenedna: FMB-64 winner last start at Echuca 2nd up after being defeated fairly over 1000m first up. Up to 1400m certainly ideal on past runs.
2. Invictum Domina: Strong run last start at Sandown when just missed behind a nice type in Fillie Champagne in a slower than average run race after handing up the lead. Jockey change to Mertens is ideal here and she maps as either the leader or the clear horse to sit outside the leader on paper. Suited by Caulfield and suited by the distance. Well weighted.
3. Alma's Rossa: Had her chances last start to get past Invictum Domina but wasn't good enough. Slightly better weighted here but has to improve onwards and sit further forward today.
4. Giroux: Good run first up. Last start at Moonee Valley ran wide and had a torrid run and was just a forgive on the day. Has ability but query over the distance being ideal. Inconsistent type and hard to measure up.
5. Wasabi: Maiden winner first up before faily defeated by Invictum Domina last start. Poorly weighted.
7. No Tan Tat: Maiden winner from start to finish last start at Geelong. Has to improve onwards to win again here but it wasn't a bad time run last start. Has some ability.
8. Macattack: Ran on well behind Fillie Champagne and Invictum Domina last start suited by the tempo on the day for mine. Has to improve onwards again.
9. Special Diva: 3L Geelong maiden winner beating some very average types for mine.. maps awkwardly today but has been supported in betting.
10. Intrice's Reward: Bairnsdale maiden winner in average at best time. Up to 1400m. Hard to suggest on what we have seen to date.
Comments: No reason to jump off Invictum Domina today and hopefully there is a bit more speed put on with either No Tan Tat setting a solid tempo, or Mertens taking hold out front and pushing it a long a bit.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Invictum Domina – 1.5 units @ $4.20 to win
Caulfield Race 5 – 1700m – Ian Morrison Handicap
1. Hunamosa: Heavy track win two back at Kyneton before getting smashed by a good type in Plein Ciel last start at Caulfield on a Good track. Stays at distance. Did overrace last start.
2. Folk Tales: Smashed the field in a CL1 last start over 1500m after a Werribee Maiden win. Clearly has to go to the next level to win a BM-70 here but obviously has claims on the wins.
3. Balf's Choice: Very solid all this prep with a win and two close runs within 1.5L of the win before last start beaten by a good type Plein Ciel by 3.5L. Dunn takes the ride.
4. On Wings: Won nicely enough in easier class first up before being beaten the last two starts including as favourite at Sandown by an average type in Sammy The Snake. Really has to improve onwards here.
5. Tempered: Been running places this prep without winning or even getting close to wins. Up to 1600m last start well beaten at Moonee Valley… hard to suggest the win for mine without improvement.
7. Crafty Devil: Ran home very well from the back last start at Sandown putting in a very good run 5th. Looks well suited from a better barrier today to be more forward. Big chance.
8. La Volt: Been going just okay heading into the last start run back in class as favourite when winning very well at Cranbourne. Big step up in class here but clearly has the ability to run well.
9. Skulduggery: BM-58 winner two back at Geelong before running surprisingly well last start in BM-64 grade at Sandown for a close 2nd. Good barrier today will see him in a nice spot with a good jockey onboard. Could surprise.
10. Royal Applause: Five seconds from six runs this prep and yet to get a win on the board. Consistently running well but hasn't got within 1L of the win the past three starts when second. Similar class, but there doesn't appear to be a Plein Ciel type in this race today. Could be her chance. Barrier an issue.
11. Fudged: Lightly raced having her 5th start. Won a 3YO Fillies grade BM-70 last start at Sandown in a small field race. Times are sound but clearly needs to improve onwards.
12. Thanos: Maiden winner last start at Bendigo over the 1600m. Probably looking for further on breeding and easier class than this.
Comments: No world beaters in this race on past form. Royal Applause looks a very nice type while Crafty Devil hits the mold as a winner here at the weights also. Tough race with several winning chances.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Royal Applause top pick. Also back Crafty Devil.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m – Mary Lewis Handicap
2. Lyuba: Consistent type that is very well placed throughout her career with 5 wins from 8 races (two seconds). Stays at 1100m and similar grade. Onl 3 loses in the past have been at this track.
3. Chiavari: Nice run 2nd first up at Moonee Valley behind Lyuba. Fairly beaten down the straight at Flemington last start. 5 runs for 0 wins at Caulfield in the past but has run a close 2nd at this track last prep.
4. Petite's Reward: Led last start and fairly beaten on the day by Lyuba and a few others. Previous start at Moonee Valley over the 955 was much better… not convinced she wants the 1100m.
5. Mossin' Around: Only won once yet has been placed in Group grade in the past. Clearly a good horse that runs nicely around this track over the shorter distances but does have trouble getting a win on the board. This is the lowest grade she has seen since her first ever win. Williams takes the ride. Goes well first up.
6. Ameristralia: Opened a very big price at one bookie and was smashed in betting accordingly. Last prep won three in a row very impressively and ran a respectable 5th to Sheidel at course and similar distance beaten just 1.3L on the day. Goes well first up and goes well at this track.
7. Grey Street: Yet to win this prep from several runs. Last start well beaten by Lyuba and a few others. Has to improve.
8. Prussian Vixen: 4th first up over 1000m from on speed and will be much better today for that solid run. Up in class but not outclassed at all. Big chance from on speed.
9. Jinx: Didn't show alot first up at Moonee Valley in easier grade from out the back. Previous best runs are still a level below this. Has to find lengths.
10. Lady Trickster: FMB-58 winner two back at Wangaratta before showing a very nice run last start a huge odds for 2L 3rd behind Lyuba and Tykiato. Good barrier today in 4 and weighted nicely again. I can't see the win but she can run well here again.
11. Saone Et Loire: Laing stable runner that hasn't won since a CL1 last prep. First up run showed nada. No thanks.
12. Sagabella: Hasn't won in a very long time and couldn't place in BM-58 grade last two starts. No. Shouldn't be running here.
Comments: The market certainly has this one right. Ameristralia is the horse to beat. Lyuba has to improve onwards again today but may have reached her limit for this prep. Mossin' Around is the untapped potential in the race that could go to the next level. Prussian Vixen is the horse forgotten in the betting for mine. This is a horse that ran French Emotion to 0.3L – a horse that would be very well respected in the betting today in this race. She had a poor run of it last prep but showed she is more than back to it over the unsuitable 1000m first up at Sandown when she stuck on very well putting on a very strong tempo. She will be on speed and sticking on strongly late.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Prussian Vixen – 0.75 units Each-Way @ $23/$4.60
Caulfield Race 7 – 1800m – Swettenham Stud Summer Championships Heat 7
1. Doctor Care: Three runs this prep. Showed a little bit last start at Flemington where ran home nicely enough for 7th. Back to 1800m not the exact ideal but still suited fine. Has won at this track in the past over 2000m beating a good type in Real Love. Does take a few runs to get wins as shown by last prep and would be close to the fitness needed.
2. Cool Chap: Disappointing this prep having failed to get a win in five runs so far but continues to run well. 2200m back to 1800m and also well back in grade here. Looks well suited and has won at this track in the past. Have to respect and well weighted.
3. Khutulun: Ran very well 3rd last start at Caulfield behind Kenjorwood (the horse probably should have won by further) and looks to be going the right way about it. Steps back in class but certainly finds quite a few good ones here. Can win but has to improve again. Placed 6 from 7 at this track.
4. Hursley: Horrible first up. Best runs have always been deeper into preps. Goes nicely over this distance range and goes well at Caulfield. A win wouldn't be a total shock but will she be fit enough?
5. Plein Ciel: Ridden on pace last start at course over 1600m and never being beaten. Up to 1800m and better suited again here. Good gap between runs. Only issue is getting caught the rail.
6. Rewarding Effort: Well backed the last two starts and got the wins. Another step up in class here today but does have untapped potential.
7. Bondeiger: Every chance last start smashed by Big Duke last start at course and distance. Has to improve onwards again.
8. Scelto: 7 runs this prep for no results and hasn't been exactly close to a win. Wasn't bad last start at Sandown but has to improve even up to the suitable distance.
9. Post D'France: Hasn't won in yonks and doesn't look to be going the right way. Take on.
10. Manhattan Boss: Nice enough horse that has been a bit hard to catch in the past. Good win first up at Bendigo with Meech onboard. Horrible last start at Flemington. Back in grade but has ability to run well enough here to feature.
11. Houdini the Great: Big step up in class here coming off a nice 3rd. Not convinced he is good enough for this.
Comments: One of the races of the day with some very good up and comers against some with proven form. I have to side with Cool Chap at the prices. I'd pick Plein Ciel over Rewarding Effort at their current prices for what it's worth. Tough betting race.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6
Strategy: Cool Chap to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1600m – Swettenham Stud Summer Championships Heat 8
1. Extra Zero: Needs the run today according to the stable and that was evident first up over 1400m when finished a well beaten last. Needs further.
2. Mihany: 21st run for the prep!!! Disappointing run last start to finish only 3rd, but it did feel as though he didn't go fast enough out front compared to normal and he was claimed fairly quickly in the straight. A few weeks between runs… back to Caulfield where has has never won but has gone close in the past. Have to respect.
3. Burning Front: Super poor on speed last start at Sandown. Previous run was fairly good but not a top quality run. Has to improve onwards today on what we have seen to date. Back to Caulfield suitable… but no easy lead today.
4. Chance to Dance: Perfectly suited here today first up after a nice break. Didn't exactly set the world on fire last prep but has a 1600m win over The United States on record. Has halved in price since opening and looks very well suited at the weights over this distance.
5. Hellova Street: Well fancied here today. Yet to get a win or go close on the main land but continues to measure up well back home in Adelaide beating solid types and running close 2nds behind Admiral. You absolutely have to respect his last two runs heading into this, but he failed to get the win on both occasions and this is certainly no walk in the park.
6. The Bowler: Three runs this prep before getting up to 1600m last start when suited at Morphetville but failed to get better than 3rd place in a nice race. This is much harder again and has to improve.
7. Nozomi: Last win was at course over 1800m in BM-84 grade. Three runs since has gone well over 2000m+ and is back to 1600m today in very hard company. Has to improve on what we have seen to date but can run well.
8. First Course: Listed win on Heavy three back. Failed to fire since the next two starts in similar grades of races. Struggle to sugest here.
9. Golden Mane: Goes well at Caulfield and has been training well at home according to the stable. Failed to fire first up over an unsuitable distance. 1600m should suit better but for mine is looking for further.
10. The New Boy: Backing up again today off a solid 3rd at course over 1400m. Respectable run that day and can run well here, but even I can't take the odds on offer here.
Comments: This looks an open and closed book race. There are only two horses out of the favourites I could back and those are Mihany and Chance to Dance.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5
Strategy: Back both Chance to Dance and Mihany.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – David McGee Handicap
1. King's Command: Fairly disappointing the last two runs in harder grade than this after a solid BM-84 win first up. Too far back last start from a very nice barrier as well. Change of jockey today and good barrier, would expect a midfield run today.
2. Our Bottino: Finished off last prep with three wins in a row at Pakenham on the synthetic. First up today with a big weight.. has never placed first up in the past is a big of a concern and asking a lot here today.
3. Silver Bolt: Adelaide local. Ran very well first up in similar grade at Moonee Valley for 5th. This is a similar grade of race in terms of the runners appearing and he would have to improve onwards again.
4. In Fairness: On speed runner who ran very well here at course over 1700m when 2.6L 5th to Kenjorwood. Back to 1400m which I think is very well suited today and well weighted back in grade. Clear top chance.
5. Bradman: Hard horse to catch. Likes Caulfield and comes on with runs. Was a nice run 2nd to hard Call last start at course and distance and is in well at the weights.
6. Electric Tribute: Got away with it easy out front two back at Flemington and won nicely over Galaxy Raider. Found out last start from midfield and didn't finish off. Stays at 1400m.
7. Hell on Earth: Well back in class today after going around 3rd favourite in Adelaide last start over 1600m. Previous start won a BM-64 grade race. Has some ability but hard to catch.
8. Hokkaido: Failed to go close last start in easier grades of races. Never placed first up in the past or placed at this track. Have to consider others.
9. Violent Snow: Nice win in easier grade last start at course and distance. Has to improve onwards again today to win.
10. Shockaholic: Well beaten the past three starts after a good Bendigo win. Has to improve.
Comments: Going wide in the last leg of the Quaddie but i'm certainly very keen on 'In Fairness' to finish off the day strongly from an on speed position. The horse won very well two back at Moonee Valley and finished off good enough in Listed company last start.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Strategy: In Fairness – 1.75 units @ $5.50 to win
