Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 4 February 2017. This is a very interesting card with quite a few value runners on offer and three to four races that look to have strong tempo related trends that will suit how the track is to play. Looking forward to a great day of racing and fingers are crossed for a good performance. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – Miss It and a Bit – 2 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.38
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Chance to Dance – 2.5 units @ $3.20 to win
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 5 – Balle D’or – 0.75 units to win. 1.25 units to place @ $41/$9.50
Caulfield Race 6 – Danuki – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6/$2.38
Caulfield Race 7 – Inside Agent – 1 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.20
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1600m – Ian Miller Handicap
1. Miss It and a Bit: Never really got a run at them last start at Moonee Valley when ridden with a sit behind the leader and missed her chances. On previous runs, she is a big chance back to this grade today. Most importantly, maps as the clear leader.
2. Zasorceress: Huge win last start at MV when the pace was on and she flashed home late with a gem of a ride from Damian Lane. Up in grade here but not that much harder. Query though over the tempo in the race and her position in running.
3. Gingie: Hasn’t gone close the past three starts and it’s really hard to suggest she finds any form here.
4. Hot Ruby: Not running bad races at all late in easier or similar class with two back 2nd to Playful Rosie over 1800m and 0.3L 3rd to Unfurl last start at course over 2000m. Step back to 1600m not ideal though on my ratings? Maps well.
5. My Obsession: Weir runner that was certainly good and made ground wide at Moonee Valley last start. In well at the weights and could sit slightly closer today.
6. Primeiro: Fairly beaten the past three starts in easier company. One i want to take on.
7. Are the Bungs In: 7YO that hasn’t really measured up to this grade in the past. Been running in BM-58 grade and was 3rd last start. No thanks.
8. Tessabelle: Well back last start at Moonee Valley, but maps to be closer to the speed today potentially outside the leader. Was a nice enough run last start and has to be respected.
9. Saone Et Loire: Ran home well last start at Werribee in a BM-58 but this is a massive step up.
Comments: This is a race that I can see being dictated from the front by Miss It and a Bit with no other real pace threats on paper outside of Tessabelle who has been going back in runs. On mapping the favourite will be a long way back and so will the other Weir runner. The main threat looks to be Hot Ruby who I don’t believe will be suited to a slowly run 1600m coming off a strong 2000m race.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Miss It and a Bit – 2 units Each-Way @ $8.00/$2.38
Caulfield Race 2 – 2000m – Robert Hunter Handicap
1. Cadillac Mountain: Too far back last start at Flemington off the slow speed set. Ran well the previous start. finally gets into a race where there is a speed runner and he will get a nice quiet run from the inside barrier. Big chance.
2. Dodging Bullets: Should have won two back, but finally got the win last start at course over the 1700m running past Our Bottino at the post. Up to 2000m shouldn’t be an issue, but he has to improve onwards again in this grade.
3. Hursley: Very well backed in the markets after getting out to last and running home solidly at Moonee Valley last start 1.4L off Big Duke and 0.4L off Cool Chap with 60kg. Won 2 from 4 at this track and really likes it. Also goes well at this distance. This is a step up in class but in all reality it isn’t class wise.
4. Jileks Spur: Stable believe he is going quite well. First up run didn’t show alot but was never going to at that distance. Best is over further for mine.
5. Scelto: 4th at Hanging Rock in the cup last start. Previous start well beaten 4th at Camperdown and previous start ot that 5th behind Plein Ciel and Cool Chap. Has to improve.
6. Post D’France: Ran an absolute blinder of a race last start off the hot tempo set when wide no cover most the trip. Deserves to be backed off that run.
7. Sir Prospector: Proven over 2000m+ with form suggesting his best may really be over 2400m-3200m. Last prep a little disappointing and the first up run was brilliant 3-wide no cover and still found the line strongly suggesting he will gain from that here.
8. Goodwill: Maiden only winner last prep. Didn’t show much late. Clearly wants 2400m+.
9. Green Light: Good maiden win two back. Not a great run last start in BM-64 grade. Huge step up.
Comments: Sir Propsector will run good race today along with Post D’France, Hursley, Dodging Bullets and even Cadillac Mountain. With the speed on in the race and the ground playing well enough out wide, I have every faith in Hursley being good enough to beat off this lot… but at the price, it doesn’t have the confidence to be a best bet.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Hursley to win
Caulfield Race 3 – 2400m – Mal Seccull Handicap
1. Big Memory: Frustrating horse for punters to back, which is why I never do it. Last prep 0.1L 2nd to Assign at course and distance in G2 company. One run this prep when poor over 1600m and has been freshened for 50 days. Obviously goes well at distance and on this track on a good track. Has to be respected.
2. Chance to Dance: Continues to run well without winning this prep. Last start was a good run from off the speed in a race won by the leaders that were gifted the race. Up to 2400m should be ideal and this is the race where his ability to grind out the final 500m will be telling. Maps well.
3. Lord van Percy: Freaking horrible last start as a best bet for us over the 2800m in the Bagot. Previous run was very good strangely. Freshened for 34 days and has to be forgiven. Nicely weighted and maps well.
4. Oncidium Ruler: Ran quite well last start considering the ride when no cover the trip and hit the lead 300m out. Kept on finding only beaten 1.3L in a race with a bunch of second raters. This is a huge jump in class and he is in at the same weights.
5. Sir Laszlo: Couldn’t win last start beating that group of horses so i’m not confident of any better here.
6. Valediction: Hurdler that is being given chances back over the distances on the flat. Was well beaten off last start.
7. Hardern: Very poor run last start when well supported at Randwick. Previous run found one too good in the good type Annus Mirabilis. Didn’t beat much the run prior. Has to find lengths for mine.
8. Skulduggery: Good type that has won 2 of last 4. Last start beaten by much easier horses which is a big disappointment even though he got too far back. Unknown over the distance and up in grade.
Comments: I’m very keen to take the price on Chance to Dance stepping up in distance from a positive barrier. The main threat looks to be Lord van Percy.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Chance to Dance – 2.5 units @ $3.20 to win
Caulfield Race 4 – 1200m – Inglis Premier
1. Jukebox: Won very well first up at Geelong over 1100m. Well supported horse today and has a bit of a word around about him. Maps well to sit just off the speed.
2. Perast: Very nice win first up at Scone gapping 2nd and then gapping 3rd by even more. Obviously up in grade but not to be discounted off that run.
3. Beaverbrook: Not the worst run of the Blue Diamond Preview, but they certainly ran him off his feet and he couldn’t keep it up from the back. Much easier pace today will be better suited, but I think he has to improve on what I saw last start even with a more suitable tempo.
4. Fully Maxed: Average run last prep 6th at Sandown. Struggle to suggest the big improvement needed to win this straight up.
5. Captivator: 4th behind Jukebox in his first run at Geelong. Well bred colt and D Oliver goes on from a nice barrier.
6. Coppergate: McEvoy runner that trailed nicely heading into this. Well placed as always and looks over the odds.
7. Evil Cry: Didn’t learn enough from the trial last year. Nice enough type on breeding but hard to suggest. Hasn’t been backed.
8. Wanted Harmony: Unseen type. Market only guide and hasn’t shown anything.
9. Falling Waters: 4.3L 2nd to Formality last start at Werribee. Has been backed in slightly at odds. Obviously has to find 2 lengths.
10. Alice Island: Hayes runner not fancied in the race. Probably looking for the experience and run today.
Comments: Not excited about this race at all with the prices available. Jukebox is unders. I’m not convinced the horse is obviously good. Perast has shown more than enough to be backable here, but i’d want over $4 to consider it. Coppergate looks the one to watch at $10s.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Back Perast
Caulfield Race 5 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Chairman’s Stakes
1. Aspect: Very good winner in G3 class last prep. 90 days off spelling and looks primed for this today. Beat Cao Cao last prep which is a very good sign.
2. Feng Chu: Couldn’t get a win last prep from the two runs. Blinkers on to get his mind more on the job, but even so, he has to find a few lengths on the last prep runs.
3. Spoils: Well backed the last two runs. Last prep beaten 0.1L by Wait for No One. Turned up last start in the Blue Diamond Preview 3-wide no cover and was still very solid through the line. Clearly a top hope.
4. Time Awaits: Another McEvoy runner. Got a win last prep over the 1000m in very easy style smashing the field. Uncertain just how well she will measure up apart from the fact that she has ability and maps well from the inside barrier.
5. Formality: Will be going forward from the outside barrier and has speed to turn. Smashed a maiden class field at Werribee first up and the stable believe she has gone to another level. The testing material.
6. Pageantry: Seymour winner by 1.25 lengths in an average enough race. Clearly she has ability on what we saw, but she has to improve on that run to win this.
7. Balle D’or: Simple ignore run last start at Moonee Valley when buck jumped and did a load wrong. Has the ability and late closing speed to win this especially if she jumps much better today from the barrier 7. Well over the odds.
8. Behave: Well bred filly – 230k purchase. No trials to go off makes it hard to know what to expect. Has had a bit of support.
9. Peristrophe: Smerdon runner that ran well in a trial leading in. Hoping they decide to run at Moonee Valley on Friday night instead of this.
Comments: Aspect, Spoils, Time Awaits and Formality are the obvious horses on form. I think Pageantry can run a race here at double figures while Balle D’Or is a stupid price for a horse that can jump better today and has very solid closing speeds with the speeds on out front today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Balle D’or – 0.75 units to win. 1.25 units to place @ $41/$9.50
Caulfield Race 6 – 1100m – John Moule Handicap
1. Kievann: Nice enough run at Moonee Valley last start when ran down late in the piece and runs 4th. Has every chance on the day though and has to improve here.
2. Glenrowan Prince: Been going around in much easier grade winning at Tatura and running 2nd at Gawler. Won previous at Bendigo also. Solid enough a horse to run well here today but needs to improve onwards.
3. Danuki: Won three in a row in easier grades before a poor run at Flemington before returning to form last start running well at course over 1200m when just run down by tougher types. Kept fighting and can run well again here.
4. Angry Gee: Most likely racing at Moonee Valley on Friday night but I guess we review the horse anyway. Comes into this with 59kg from a poor barrier. Will get back in the run and be running on well.. first attempt at the track.
5. Chiavari: Nice run 5th last start at course over a similar distance when held up for runs and flashed home solidly behind Rich Charm and Roman Fizz. Good 4th previous start behind Ameristralia and Prussian Vixen etc. Will chance her luck and push to midfield to try and find a spot. Has the ability.
6. Kentucky Flyer: Laing stable runner that won just okay last start on a wetter track beating Military. Has to improve to measure up here at the weights from the barrier.
7. Invincible Heart: Ran last first up at Flemington down the straight coming off a 266 day spell. No excuses either. Previous prep had a good run 4th at course and distance. Really struggle to suggest off that first up run but the horse obviously has ability.
8. Turbo Miss: 287 days between runs suggests coming off an injury. Last prep certainly got through the grades and won well over longer distances. This looks a tad short first up off such a long lay off.
9. Cool Snitzel: Two runs last prep well beaten. Previous prep beat Heatherly over 1000m which is obviously top class form. If can find that form then hard to beat here, but markets aren’t expecting that on the drifts.
10. Chat to Maggie: 2nd to Shemai last start at Sandown from the back when flew home. Obviously have to respect on the last start run with a 3kg claim again down to 51kg.
11. Miss Gidget: Full blinker son to try and turn things around. Certainly up against it here on previous form.
12. Shemai: Got the win last start and comes into this giving Chat to Maggie a fair bit of weight today. Has to clearly improve and doesn’t get the easiest run compared to last start.
13. Trueno: Fairly beaten 4th last start at Morphetville. Previous start also fairly beaten. Trainer doesn’t bring them over to lose but this is a big task.
Comments: Another interesting race on paper. Leaving a few chances out of the Quaddie. Danuki clear top pick on mapping while Chiavari is well over the odds and needs a good ride to win. More than happy to jump into Danuki E/W at the prices!
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10
Strategy: Danuki – 1 unit Each-Way @ $6/$2.38
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Manfred Stakes
1. Morton’s Fork: G2 winner to finish last prep over 1600m. Won over 1300m and went close over 1400m. Is 1200m first up a tad sharp? Will be back and tucked away from the barrier.
2. Hey Doc: Very good horse. Started last prep with a solid 1200m win on a Soft 6 at Sandown before going on and winning over 1500 and 1600m distances including a G2 and placed in the Caulfield Guineas. Has the early dash to position well and late dash to match it with the best of them. Maps well.
3. Trenchant: Godolphin runner first up today. Last prep didn’t go close to a win apart from the last run when blocked for runs over 1600m and was a eye-catcher. Best is over further and on softer tracks.
4. Inside Agent: Clearly proved his ability last prep with strong runs over 1100m-1400m distances and there is no reason why he can’t measure up here today over the 1200m distance. Has settled too far back on most occasions last prep and from the barrier today and change of rider to McEvoy, there is every chance he can position Midfield 1 off the rail to get an ideal run to build up momentum into the straight. Suited by the track.
5. Legless Veuve: First up coming off a strong previous prep where she won a Group 2 at course over 1400m. Best is obviously over further but she comes into this well.
6. Derryn: A bit disappointing overall finishing off last prep well beaten in the Coolmore after a fair third in the Blue Sapphire. Obviously has ability.. Blinkers off first time today and may be wanting further?
7. Gratwick: Gem of a front running ride last start at Moonee Valley from Williams out the front. Huge step up in class here though and won’t get it as easy.
8. Manolo Blahniq: Looked to have ability last prep and ran well all things considered for 6th in the Coolmore. First up hit the line strongly covering loads of ground. Much better suited here today… will be getting back and running on up to the 1200m.
9. Wazzenme: This horse can never draw a good barrier and that continues here. Not the best horse going around but a very consistent horse that measures up. Needs everything to go right to be a winning hope.
10. Ballet Master: 0.2L win in BM-64 grade last start. Huge step up in grade here. Hard to suggest on last start win.
11. Into Orbit: Handy type. Strong win over the 1000m first up at Sandown but this is a massive step up in grade. Looks under the odds.
12. Casque: Not bad in the Inglis Dash last start at odds when ran home solidly for 8th. Previous starts suggest he isn’t good enough for this.
Comments: Morton’s Folk and Hey Doc are just too short for mine, but they have to both be considered. The same can be said for Derryn. Manolo Blahniq will be running well but the value is all gone in the price. I keep coming back to Inside Agent who jumped out very well heading into this race today and maps very well from the barrier as long as he can find his feet as well as he did in the trial. The track will be playing well this late in the day out wider also to help.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Inside Agent – 1 unit Each-Way @ $14/$4.20
Caulfield Race 8 – 1000m – Le Pine Funerals W.J. Adams Stakes
1. Faatinah: First up today over the 1000m which looks an ideal distance for mine coming off a very strong jump out. Only run at course previous was a good 2nd to Our Boy Malachi beating home Lankan Rupee.
2. Thermal Current: Surprised last start at Flemington when beat a decent field down the straight over 1000m after a very average run previous to that. Never won from 10 starts at this track…. but obviously now going well enough to win this.
3. Miss Promiscuity: Stable heavily talked down her chances here today suggesting she is carrying a load of condition. Needs the run.
4. Divine Ten: Horrible first up down the straight and certainly has to be forgiven for mine. Tongue Tie and Ear Muffs on both important changes.
5. Shakespearean Lass: Strong win first up over the 1000m at Moonee Valley from off the speed and won with authority. EIPH last start at Flemington and been freshened up for this. Goes well at distance obviously and has won at this track previously. Will get an ideal run from the barrier.
6. Beau Rada: Disappointing run last start when gone a long way out at Flemington. Previous start held up for runs behind It is Written. This looks harder today.
7. Grane: Not shown enough the last two starts to suggest the improvement needed.
8. Lady Esprit: Two wins in a row heading into this. Back to Caulfield where she hasn’t won in the past but has to be respected from a good barrier again.
9. Pink Perfection: Been running ‘okay’ in 955m races at Moonee Valley without winning. Last start pulled up lame and has to be at her best to win this.
10. Sunday Escape: Very strong run last start wide no cover at Moonee Valley over the 1000m. Previous run was good also. Another grade up but has been going well enough to run well here.
11. Ready Sunshine: Adelaide runner. Last win was in BM-75 grade. Last start run was only fair in comparison to what is needed here. Others preferred. Place at best.
Comments: Faatinah will be very hard to beat first up here from the front, but it won’t be a simple task of crossing them today with the speed on. Thermal Current maps to get an ideal run just off the speed today and has been well backed, while the same can be said for Shakespearean Lass. Lady Esprit gets caught on the rail for mine and will need luck in running while Divine Ten will need to be at it’s best, but has the ability. Two standouts are Thermal Current and Shakespearean Lass on mapping and prices.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10
Strategy: Back Thermal Current and Shakespearean Lass
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Darren Gauci Farewell Handicap
1. Charlie Boy: Second up today after a nice run first up at the Gold Coast in the MM Sprint when got back and ran on well. Hasn’t won in a long time, but has gone close in Group racing including a G1 3rd behind Azkadellia and Music Magnate. Last prep wasn’t great but is back in form this prep. Nice weight with the claim and maps perfectly off the speed.
2. Great Esteem: Loves Caulfield. First up today and goes well at the 1400m distance, although his very best has been over further (1600m). Top weight certainly is against him here, but this is a Group 1 placed horse only 200m down from his G1 placing distance. Respect.
3. Longeron: Two wins last prep in total over 2000m+ at MV and Caulfield on soft tracks. First up and up against it on a firm track at this distance. Never won first up.
4. Smart Dart: Consistent type that never runs a bad race. 3rd behind Grande Rosso the previous start and got the win last start franking the solid form lines. 1200m up to 1400m the only negative here. Well in at the weights and maps out the back as is expected.
5. Duke of Brunswick: Ideal map today from barrier 3 after a very nice second up run over the 1400m just 0.3L off Grande Rosso. Can go on with it here and go a few spots better with a good run.
6. Falago: First up today over an unsuitable distance. Hard for me to justify a win here.
7. Self Sense: Goes well enough over 1400m on past experiences but very best is over further distances. Has won twice first up in the past and very best has always been on dryer tracks.
8. Zebrinz: Goes well at this track on past runs but has never placed from 6 runs first up so forgive the run last start which wasn’t bad at all. Never won 2nd up either in the past but expect improvement.
9. Try Four: Last start winner over 3300m hurdles. Very hard to suggest first up here over 1400m. Take on.
10. Adirondack: Only one run last prep when ran okay without going close over 1400m in G3 company at course. Previous preps best was seen over 1800-2000m.
11. Show a Star: Beaten by Our Bottino first up at Camperdown but Our Bottino has run well enough since. Goes well at this track but has to improve again.
Comments: This is a really interesting betting race. Duke of Brunswick is going to run well again and Smart Dart is expected to also run well, but from a worse position in running. The two clear standouts at the prices at Charlie Boy and Great Esteem.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Strategy: Back both Charlie Boy and Great Esteem.
