Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 3 February 2018. The rail moves in from the 6m to the 9m position from the last meeting and the track should play fair with a slight advantage to those playing the on-speed momentum of the track. Looking to bounce back from a few unlucky bob loses in recent weeks and a large run of 4ths for E/W plays to turn around our way. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Twitchy Frank – 8 units @ $2.80 to win. Memory Bank – 2 units @ $10.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Snitty Kitty – 5 units @ $2.10 to win.
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 9 – Malaise 1.75 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.75
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 5 – Handsome Thief – 3.5 units @ $4.50 to win.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 1
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 10, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – Inglis Premier
1. Messerschmitt: Exposed form. Last prep solid enough when 4th over 1000m at Caulfield. First up in maiden class just won over 1100m. Will get the 1200m and from barrier 2 will be on speed in a nice spot.
2. Grand Symphony: Unseen Griffiths runner. Haven’t seen much of the Glass Harmonium’s yet and not sure sprinter?
3. Grey Khan: Gelagotis first starter – D Oliver takes the ride… not convinced this is the yard you want for 2YOs.
4. Aristocratic Miss: Strong G3 3rd last prep. Went around very short last start at Morphetville and just didn’t find when asked. Has to improve on current form and blinkers could do the trick. Kah is here to ride for a reason.
5. Kinky Boom: Strong 8L trial winner on leave in and trial time was very reasonable. A lot of gear on… Williams takes ride for McEvoy. Clearly best backed.
6. Melveen: Unseen well bred type for Henry Dwyer. Keep an eye for yard.
7. Queen’s Authority: Another yard horse for a lesser yard. Others preferred.
Comments: Not convinced Messerschmitt is absolute top grade from what I’ve seen but is fairly handy. If any of these are going to go on from this and compete for the Blue Diamond, then they have to be better than the exposed form. The Spirit of Booms are flying and the trial from Kinky Boom looked the real deal.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Kinky Boom
Caulfield Race 2 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Chariman’s Stakes – G3
1. Encryption: Looked a real good type last prep but huge query having stayed down in the Melb camp for mine and just not sure they are giving us well turned out horses. Take on.
2. Chicago Typewritter: Gawler winner two back and then a fair 2nd to Enbihaar. Needs to significantly improve again.
3. Logan River: Interesting form lines. Not convinced has the form to step up and figure here.
4. Prairie Fire: Another Mick Price Snitzel. Knows how to produce these ones and word is this one is going well at home. Respect.
5. Sunset Watch: Hawkes runner and looks one of their horses to follow off jump outs. Barrier and Dunn the issues.
6. Ennis Hill: Trailled well on lead into first up run when got back and ran on but failed to get the job done as favourite. We were told this was probably the new Catchy for the yard… 49 days between runs and Blinkers on…. Baster takes ride so closer to speed?
7. Metronome: First starter for Kent yard. Thornton no claim an issue.
8. No Time Like Now: Price and Dee combine. Only fairly bred and by all reports wants the run.
9. Of Importance: Price and Oliver combo. Unseen and untested, good barrier.
Comments: This looks to be a very competitive field. While I can’t understand why Craig Williams has lost the ride, Ennis Hill has the class and ability for mine to stand up and count here at odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Ennis Hill E/W
Caulfield Race 3 – 1400m – Ian Miller Handicap – 3YO-F-BM78
1. Memory Bank: Strong wins first and second up last prep before a respectable 4th when failed at Randwick to end prep. Starts at 1400m today freshened up.
2. Twitchy Frank: Played up a bit in the yard last start but just went around at strong hard sectionals and was never being run down. Tagreeda didn’t back up the form on Wednesday but that was the speed of the race for mine. Will lead and is hard to run down.
3. Paris Rock: Two wins in a row. Big step up in grade here today. Not for me.
4. Earth Angel: Trialed well enough on lead in. Winkers on. Listed 4th on Heavy last prep after a maiden win. Looks to have ability.
5. Lucky Cat: Maiden winner first up before two respectable runs from out the back. Last start back in class 3rd… big jump here.
6. She’s Out Gift: Four runs this prep. May really be wanting wetter surfaces? Two back was ok.
7. Pageantry: Out back ran on first up behind Lucky Cat. Has to improve on that run but has ability.
Comments: Paris Rock is well under the odds for mine and one I want to take on here. The same goes for Lucky Cat at the prices. Earth Angel has ability and will be running well here. Memory Bank is the clear value of the race at the 1400m, this is a solid horse that will be suited by a rolling tempo. Twitchy Frank will be near impossible to run down setting a tempo similar to last start. Super keen to be winning on Twitchy Frank and Memory Bank here.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Twitchy Frank – 8 units @ $2.80. Memory Bank – 2 units @ $10.00
Caulfield Race 4 – 2400m – Robert Hunter Handicap
1. Sayed: Two runs this prep and beaten fairly 2.4L or above. Will be suited at distance but lacking the strong run at it.
2. Double Bluff: Laing yard. Best over these distances with strongly run pace, but lead in runs bad.
3. Shoreham: A few weeks between runs. Never won at distance and going 1800m to 2400m.
4. Al Haram: Paraded terrible last start at Flemington and has big improvement to come today. Can settle very well from barrier and looks a big chance down in the weights.
5. Last Week: Well up in weight after a solid win at Flemington over the 2500m in a fast run race. Going very well.
6. Bint El Bedu: The hotter the speed the better for this horse. Found one better last start and no change at weights for her. Has to improve.
7. Dornier: Continues to run solidly without going close. Not a threat here for mine.
8. One for Later: Strong 2L win last start at Flemington from on speed over the staying distance coming back 3000m to 2000m and loved the solid tempo. Much harder here.
Comments: Speed will be on strongly out front with One For Later leading them around with 52kg. I think outside of One For Laker you just have to pen job the horses not coming out of th Doriemus Handicap which was the perfect lead in for any horse here with the strong tempo over the right distance while the others come out of slower run races over shorter distances. Expect AL Haram to map a dream and have every chance down in the weights with a moderate to firm speed on.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Al Haram and saver Last Week.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Handicap – BM-78
1. Handsome Thief: Should have won first up at course and distance in harder grade of race. Steps back in class up in weight and Willo gets onboard. Suited from barrier to get the right run.
2. Star Stealer: Strongly run last start at Kilmore looked like the real deal. Brown onboard go back from wide barrier.
3. Hay Bale: Disappointing first up. Hard to suggest here even back to dryer.
4. King River: Freshened for several weeks may suggest an issue between runs? Showed a lot of merit last start and has to be respected.
5. Highland Beat: First up.. 12 attempts at track and never run. Has been gelded. Respect is a Listed winner.
6. Miss Wonderland: Strong Sandown win first up beating a nice type but failed in the Standish off a hot tempo on a dryer surface. A month between runs and well back in grade here.
7. Hunting Hill: Heavy winner two back at Mornington but failed to fire at Caulfield last start. Spelled between Preps. Not for mine first up.
8. Roman Fizz: Two runs both average at best over this distance. Needs to improve.
9. Tykiato: Failed to fire last start when checked late at Flemington but race for mine was over. Obviously a good type and going well but has to improve again and may be already past prime of prep?
10. Chapel Road: First up beaten 3L no real excuses. Big ask.
11. Bob of the Head: Strong 2nds behind Annrhon over the 1100m down the Flemington straight when they rode the speed along. Down in weight and a contender.
12. Eurack: Three starts for three wins last prep. Certainly a gutsy type. Query on best holding up in this grade on a Good track.
13. Deconi: Nice win two back at Sandown behind a few ok types. Found nothing last start a worry at Caulfield.
14. If Not Now When: Continues to run well without winning. Beaten a pimple last start in a strongly run race when at complete top fitness. Always needs luck.
Comments: A few interesting runners here at odds like Highland Beat and Hay Bale who on their day could run races good enough to win. Bob of the Head was brilliant last start but there is queries over repeating hose efforts. Handsome Thief is the obvious big time improver heading into this race and with a run 2-3-wide with cover getting out at the right time on what should be a fair deck, he will be very hard to hold out even with 60kg.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Handsome Thief – 3.5 units @ $4.50
Caulfield Race 6 – 1000m – Polytrack W.J. Adams Stakes
1. Crystal Dreamer: Continues to run well and win this prep. Freshened up and back to 1000m ideal at Caulfield where he continues to run well. Hard to run down from on speed.
2. Thermal Current: Obviously also flying right now this prep. Last start blocked for runs at critical stages. Has to improve again.
3. Snitty Kitty: The real deal last start winning a G2 with ease and Mares BM-90. Real deal.
4. Palazzo Pubblico: Hasn’t won this prep. Last start run over 1000m very good 3rd to Memes and Boss Lane. They wouldn’t win this for mine.
5. Nasdex: Won two from three. Last start got the win at Caulfield but was very lucky on the day.
6. Sunday Escape: First up today. Goes okay at track. First up. goes nicely enough.
7. Lady Esprit: Hasn’t won in over 10 starts. Always had ability this horse.
Comments: At the weights, Snitty Kitty may very well be a weighted moral if returns close to as well as last prep. Maps for an ideal run and has the turn of foot needed to just put these away the final 600m. Crystal Dreamer the main danger for me.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 1
Strategy: Snitty Kitty – 5 units @ $2.10 to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 2000m – Mal Seccull Handicap – BM-84
1. O’lonera: Continues to present very very very well at the races and continues to run well. Loves this track and loves this distance. 3kg claimer key at this grade.
2. Willi Willi: Never losing last start from on speed at Flemington. Query over fitness for that run but has to be respected on ability. Expect to be forward again from perfect barrier not leading.
3. Portion Control: Presented average at best the past two starts to the races so continues to have improvement to come. Was not suited one bit last start. Now or never ready to fire here. Barrier big issue.
4. Archery Peak: Failed first up at Flemington. Previous preps suggest needs this distance and may need wetter?
5. Hale Soriano: Close places to end last prep over the 3200m hurdle distances. First up failed over 1600m and needs further.
6. Khezerabad: French import that probably wants the jumps. Needs further for very best but can run this distance ok.
7. Lips Areois: Hard horse to suggest on past preps and first up run.
8. Mr Churchill: Strong sprinter but bar plates go on as a huge query. Was well suited by soft speed last start behind WIlli Willi. Has to make the next step up in grade.
9. Bedford: Won two from three and a place behind very good type Krusty. 6 length winner at Caulfield off the hot speed last start… serious win.
10. Mutarakem: Disappointing last start at Flemington not suited by the slow early pace and sat wide and laid in doing a lot wrong. Better than that.
Comments: Hale Soriano and Lips Areios will be on speed today with O’Lonera and a few others sitting just off the pace. Big query over just how fast they will go around here. If they run a decent clip, it will be hard to hold out Bedford at the weights off a repeat of the last start run. Willi Willi looks the main danger while Portion Control can run a very good race but isn’t suited today from the barrier.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 9
Strategy: Bedford to win
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Ladbrokesd Manfred Stakes
1. Cliff’s Edge: Best runs in past over further than this… but is two starts for two wins over this distance. Is a Group 1 class horse over the 2000m distances.
2. Veranillo: First up fairly beaten by Del Piero at Ballarat. Nice type on past runs but no thanks Melb yard.
3. Overshare: Just ignore the fact he ran at Flemington. Can improve for that run today back to 1200m at Caulfield.
4. Kentucky Breeze: Two starts for two very strong wins. Improves onwards again today and has to be respected.
5. Muraaqeb: 5th in the Blue Diamond and 2nd in Listed grade the next start. Best probably is over these distances.
6. Prezado: Strong first up run down the straight and peaked late. Get back run on from this barrier. Poor mapping.
7. Sheer Madness: First up here. Best last prep over further than this – 1400m. Need to improve.
8. Crystal Spirit: Just hit a wall late over 1400m last start so a step back to 1200m is ideal for this classy 3YO. Very much respect his class to run strongly here at Caulfield from a good barrier.
9. I Did It Again: Ignore Blue Diamond run and rate on previous runs. Has clear ability but some are better than him for mine.
10. Bravo Tango: Massive run first up down the straight. Looking for 1400-1600m to be at best, but that might not matter today. Elite closing sectionals and barrier 6 is ideal with hungry Benny Melham onboard.
11. Poseidon’s Pool: Finished off last prep a little disappointing in the McNeil but did run 3rd the previous start in the Vain behind Jukebox. Has ability.
12. No Dreams All Hope: Couldn’t place in a maiden.
Comments: This is a real hard race to predict with several strong progressive type sin the race. Cliff’s Edge in the past has run elite figures good enough to win here from a perfect barrier on speed while so has Kentucky Breeze, Crystal Spirit and even Overshare. From the back, Muraaqeb, Brave Tango and Prezado meet that criteria. Hardest race of the day.
Confidence 40%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
Strategy: Backing Bravo Tango and Kentucky Breeze
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – John Moule Handicap – BM-84
1. Magic Consol: First up today over what is probably an unsuitable distance. Did well last prep but does look poorly weighted against others.
2. Rock Forthe Ladies: Two runs this prep but fairly beaten on both occasions. Up in distance suits.
3. Riyadh: Well beaten last two runs. Previously 2nd to Kiwia in the Gold Nugget. Best is good enough but has been far off that lately.
4. Glenrowan Prince: Failed last start at Flemington and previous race at Gawler… wasn’t beaten too far previous start at Caulfield. Hard ask.
5. Malaise: One of the few Godolphin runners going very well that is competing down here. Once again, it’s the Sydney polish. Was a very good win at Flemington and can continue on with that form here. Barrier only issue.
6. Leodoro: Flew home last start at Flemington for third. Chop King JNR keeps the ride. 1400m query but should suit at this track.
7. This Kid Rocks: Penola winner in similar grade coming off city disappointments. Has some ability and can’t be fully dismissed with Willo on.
8. Judges: Nutcase of a horse. Won at the Bool two back then ran a very respectable race no cover at Flemington. Has to be respected.
9. King’s Command: trucked home behind Wise Hero and Malaise last start at Flemington. Good barrier again.
10. Chippenham: Strong winner just last start at course and distance. Well up in grade but well in at weights with 3kg claimer.
11. Sheriff John Stone: Surprise winner two back and ran a solid race at Flemington down the straight. Will be suited by tempo today but barrier does hurt and up to 1400m not ideal.
12. The Avenger: Continues to run well but found his level last start. Has to improve here.
13. Trogir: Wide no cover last start and just missed. Barrier 3 gets a much better run today and will be hard to run down late. Perfect race for him.
14. Call Me Handsome: Easy win last start as $1.80 fav at Sale. Previous start good quality run also. Up in grade again the query and bad barrier.
15. Manolo Blahniq: Continues to run some solid races. Step up to 1400m a HUGE query. Probably wins when we aren’t on.
Comments: Another respectable race with strong form lines, but none for mine are stronger than Malaise who looks perfectly suited here. The barrier isn’t too much of a worry as I can see the horse slotting in 1-2 off the rails with cover midfield with no issues. Main dangers look to be Trogir with an ideal run in transit, Leodoro who will be bursting through late and Chippenham with the low weight.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 5, 6, 10, 13
Strategy: Malaise 1.75 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.75
