Welcome to The Profits preview from for Caulfield on 29 July 2017. We return to Caulfield where the rail has been moved back into the True and every runner on the day should get their chance based on the patterns, but I’m predicting, and looking to see how it plays out, that as the day goes on it will be harder to make ground with the wings significantly drying out the track. Our best bet of the day comes up very early in the card while there appears to be some tremendous value later in the day. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
*Please note the heavy wind conditions 35-55km Northerly is predicted for the day and will dry out the track throughout the day and cause issues for certain positions throughout the card*
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Charlevoix – 6 units @ $3.90 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – Sullivan Bay – 2.5 units @ $3.20 to win. Divine Chills 1.75 units @ $4.50 to win
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 9 – Portion Control – 2 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.40
Value Bets
Caulfield Race 8 – Tashbeeh – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $34/$9.00
Caulfield Race 5 – Summer Glen – 1 unit Each-Way @ $13/$4.00
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 8, 10, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
For those that preview a discussion on form in Video format, you can watch the videos below. Please note that what is discussed is before final selections and I’d note that my research and form has gone to another level for Race 8.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – Janet Brady F&M Handicap
1. Rocket Commander: Never won first up in the past but did win a G3 on heavy last prep over this distance. Best has been 1400m+ for mine but clearly should go well enough fresh. Tough ask at weights. Maps well.
2. Forgeress: Had the ability to get past Sullivan Bay last start in a race where they both controlled the tempo. Maps slightly further back today with a bit more speed in the race but clearly has to be considered.
3. Sullivan Bay: Maps as the clear leader once again today. Down in weights has her in fine again and certainly a win wouldn’t be a total shock.
4. Every Faith: Three runs this prep and while last start was average the run two back was nice over much further. G3 placed last prep at course and distance (ran 2nd) and this stable is flying. Not sure the tempo will suit today though.
5. Sahara Chill: Only boxed on last start fairly beaten behind Forgeress and Sullivan Bay. Hard to see the improvement…. needs a stronger tempo.
6. Divine Chills: Scratched last start due to not enough give in the ground… with this being Race 1 and a bit of rain around all week, I’d be shocked to see an upgrade before the running of the first and they will be running. Doesn’t map great from the wide spot today but I get the feeling they will push forward today and get a great position in running.
7. Miss Counterfeit: Won 3 of last 4 and obviously won first up this prep. Big jump in grade though and has to improve again.
8. Winspot: Big win at odds two back at Bendigo on the Heavy track and was fairly beaten in easier last start at Sale on a Good track. Wants it wetter in this grade.
9. Stylemaker: Hard to suggest over this distance in this grade based on previous preps runs.
Comments: I’m happy to take on Rocket Commander based on the pace and distance. While I think Every Faith is a good horse and is proven over this distance, the horse maps too far back today. I’m expecting Sullivan Bay to lead them around again at a slow to medium tempo and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Divine Chills driven forward to sit outside her throughout. Forgeress will be further back in the run today with a sit and is not in well at the weights compared to last start. I’m happy to be betting here on two runners.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Sullivan Bay – 2.5 units @ $3.20. Divine Chills 1.6 units @ $5.00.
Caulfield Race 2 – 2400m – Sheen Group Vobis Gold Stayers
1. Charlevoix: Maps for a Sit once again today 2600m back to 2400m well back in grade. Top weight but well in at the weights against this lot and appreciates a little sting out. Speed will be on also that helps.
2. Sammy the Snake: Has been running consistently well coming into this with three seconds in a row behind some okay types. Never looked likely the last two starts in easier grade though… will run it along out front.
3. Jimivag: Beat Sammy the Snake two back at Geelong but was fairly beaten behind Charlevoix last start. Has to improve.
4. Benall: Nice trial hurdle win heading into this. 1L behind Charlevoix end of last prep 65 days ago and finds himself 2kg worse off today. Newitt takes the ride on this runner that gets back and runs on.
5. Welcome Stryker: Showed me something this prep I thought was ability, but the three runs since haven’t seen him fire. Have to take him on.
6. Mapping: Couldn’t win a BM-58 three back and hasn’t gone well since. Take on.
7. Jimmie Jim: Hasn’t won a race and can’t place in a maiden last start over this distance. Take on.
8. Kiwia: 3YO stepping up against the true stayers today. Good win two back on speed at Caulfield but will need to work for a good position today. Stockdale off and Lane on has him only fairly in at the weights for mine. Has to improve on the previous runs and is questionable at the distance first time.
9. Dandre: Maiden winner two back. Not the worst run at all 5th behind WIndbern actually when was even hampered and could have won for mine. Step up again in distance the big issue.
10. Hot Ruby: Fairly beaten last start at Sandown off the speed behind leaders over this distance. Really feel 2000m is her top.
11. Street Spun: Beaten 3L last start at Sandown over 2100m in much easier. Hard to see the improvement to win but could place.
Comments: Charlevoix is the proven 2400m runner today and from barrier 4 with Craig Williams onboard is expected to get a very charmed run in a race that should be run along solidly out the front by Sammy The Snake. Very keen to take the seasoned runner well weighted here today against the 3YO Kiawa first time up to 2400m from an awkward barrier.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Charlevoix – 6 units @ $4.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1400m – Join Victorian Breeders 2YO VOBIS Gold Ingot
1. Nistaan: 3-wide no cover last start at course over 1200m and ran very very well 3rd behind Lone Eagle and Evil Cry. Form has held up very well and from barrier 1 he maps perfectly today for a big run.
2. Fully Maxed: Sandown 2YO Handicap winner first up over 1000m on a soft track. Was a nice win from off the speed on the day and obviously looks to have ability. Query if 1000m is the horses best distance or if suited to 1400m today.
3. Mulk: Maiden winner when well supported last start over 1400m in maiden grade at Sandown. Beat some okay types and was a 3L win on the day from on speed. Respect with D Oliver keeping the ride.
4. Kedleston: Geelong handicap favourite last start but failed to get the chocolates or even place and wasn’t really any excuses. 3rd behind Catchy and Property last prep at course over 1100m… is 1400m really his distance?
5. Sheer Madness: Ran poorly first up from out the back and just didn’t measure up off a good trial. 1400m better suited but even so in this grade has a lot to prove.
6. Confluence: Maiden. Just beaten on heavy last start over 1300m and previous start similar over 1100m. Needs to find a length or two to figure here.
7. Olympic Lad: Nice run first up 4L 4th behind Lone Eagle and Nistaan first up and looks a type that gets back and runs on well and is looking for 1400-1600m. Did look good in the yard last start but would expect improvement.
8. Evolutionist: Well beaten last start at course over 1200m. Hard to suggest even with Mertens taking the ride.
9. Liu Bei: Donald maiden placed horse first up. Huge improvement needed.
10. Chiyou: Very average first up over 1200m. Blinkers on here so wouldn’t fully dismiss.. but hard to have.
11. Shamport: Echuca 3rd over 1100m last start and looked a nice type. Williams takes ride but this looks a big step up again.
12. Shootoutatdawn: 3rd in 2Yo Handicap last start at Geelong and wasn’t a bad run at all. Much harder here but has some ability.
13. Sona Dancer: 4th well beaten over 1000m first up but came from well back. Certainly has some ability.
Comments: Not a race i’m overly keen to be betting into and really want to see the runners from the yard. Olympic Lad will be a big improver and looks well over the odds for mine while Mulk and Nistaan are clearly the ones to beat. Happy to just sit out.
Confidence 30%
Strategy: Olympic Lad to place
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – BM-78 – Jason Hart Handicap
1. Oberland: First up in Victoria for new stable. BM-85 4th to end last prep after winning in similar grade at Sunshine Coast. Beat Iris Constabulary which is a good form line. Respect.
2. Danuki: Won 3 in a row last prep over these distances in easier grades but just couldn’t get a win at the top level. Comes back from a nice spell today and has good enough form lines to win.
3. Happy Galaxy: ‘Surprise’ winner last start at Big odds on the Geelong Synthetic after failing on heavy the run before. Group class horse that really has to be considered a chance today.
4. Kabrocco: Wagga winner in nice style over 1000m two back before failing to fire with top weight on Synthetic last start. Looks to have some talent.
5. Just for Starters: Morphettville winner before going up in harder grade and then 660 days off. Coming off injuries.. hard to suggest what that so far.
6. Tango Rock: Won two in a row before getting back and running on just okay last start at Sandown when favourite and a little disappointing. Has to improve on that run but clearly has the ability.
7. Chapel Road: BM-70 grade winner four back and has been running consistently well since. Last start fairly beaten behind Rich Luck and Fire Agate which suggests improvement needed here.
8. Removal: Blinkers off and freshened up. 1000m up to 1100m.. was a good run 3rd last start at Sandown in similar grade. Has to be considered.
9. Squeak Squirel: Three runs this prep but hasn’t been within 3L of a win. Similar grade of race and hard to suggest.
10. Wind Force: Very nice run 2nd last start at course and similar distance in harder grade of race when led them along at a very nice solid tempo and was run down late by Leodoro while Portman ran third. Very good form to bring into this race today. Only negative is 6 runs 0 wins on a Good track but a Good 4 is more than wet enough.
11. Written Era: Three runs last prep and closest run to a result was 3rd first up in easier grade. Was a bit unlucky in G3 class the next run and was held up untested the final run of prep. This could be a very good horse and we just wouldn’t know it. Have to respect and has been backed.
12. Charlie Garcon: Won twice this prep in easier races than this. Last start ran very well 2nd to Gun Case at Sandown but just missed. Similar grade of race today and has to be respected even from the bad barrier.
13. Saint Valorem: Not the worst run at all first up from too far back at Sandown. Up in distance suited here and has ability for a lightly raced type. Respect.
14. Seattle Boom: Good win at Morphetville first up by 3 lengths beating some nice types. Not a big step up in grade here either and looks very well suited.
15. Certain Ellie: First up today over a distance she has run 7 times for 0 places. Not the worst type here at all but clearly couldn’t have first up in this grade. Really wants 955m.
16. World of Hope: First up today coming off a prep with 3 runs for two seconds and a 6th when favourite. Her type of race here class wise.
17. Our Vidia: Ran nicely enough first up in harder grade at Moonee Valley before back in class last start on a heavy track and ran well 3rd just beaten at Bendigo. Much harder here but has to be considered.
18. Bullywolfe: Bool winner on heavy 10 last start… hard to even suggest on the dry here.
19. Good Offa: Horrible first up. Hard to suggest on recent form lines.
Comments: Wide open race as seen by the number of runners, but there are literally several live chances throughout the field. Seattle Boom looked the real deal first up and I think can measure up here while Written Era has the improvement to win while Wind Force brings very strong form lines here. Happy Galaxy is a Group horse at it’s best while Dnauki and Oberland also have to be considered alongside Tango Rock and a few others.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back Wind Force and Seattle Boom.
Caulfield Race 5 – 2000m – Nicole Slater 3YO Handicap
1. All Out of Love: Get back run on type that will be midfield at best in run if not further back. Goes well at this track and distance. Held up for runs last start simple forgive. Continues to run well and has to be considered.
3. Poetic Ray: Won two in a row on heavy tracks at the Bool in much easier classes of races. Unknown on dry or on level of class.
4. Spanish Reef: Hard not to be impressed with her form lines beating Lovani two back and then beating Ruby Sea last start in the Rivette Final. Will be just off the speed and well weighted with a 3kg claim.
5. Windbern: Nice win last start at course and distance when pulled out for runs that weren’t there and smashed the field. Certainly obviously going well based on past two runs but up in weights here has to improve. Good barrier.
6. Meat Traders: Checked out of it last start when making his runs by the Windbern smashing of the field. Good runs prior but not sure was winning last start and I want to take on.
7. Kipe: Donald 1600m winner up to 2000m and well up in grade. Hard to suggest.
8. Shadow Prince: Led them around last start at Caulfield when only run down very late in the piece by Windbern and Snipfit. Can do it again today from the ideal barrier.
9. Penthouse Kitten: 1600m synthetic winner last start. Looked okay but not great over 2000m+ last prep. Others preferred here but she does have ability.
11. Summer Glen: Held up two back in the final behind Spanish Reef and ran very well before a mid-week run last week 2nd as favourite beaten 0.1L by Anotehr Bullseye. This is much harder… but i liked the run. Down to 51kg and 5.5kg better off against Spanish Reef.
13. Dr Jameson: Mildura maiden winner over 2000m. Huge class increase. No thanks.
14. Eureka Street: Found the line well enough from out the back last start first time 2000m and was decent from the wide barrier. Poor barrier again and change of jockey. Maps closer to the speed today. Respect.
15. Seattle Park: Almost fell last start due to the Dunn ride on Windbern but recovered and still found the line well enough. Respect.
16. Ocean Magic: Sandown third last start behind Summer Glen when fairly beaten on the day. Have to improve on that run for mine at the weights today. First time 2000m also.
17. Don’t Dismiss: Two runs in maidens and couldn’t get a win on the board on heavy tracks. Dryer today but clearly hard to suggest.
18. Presscott: Was absolutely bolting as well as Windbern last start coming into the straight but was held up for runs almost the full straight and was never asked for an ultimate effort. Really like this horse and think the jockey change is positive but a disappointing barrier selected.
19. Von Richter: Synthetic winner in BM-58 over 1900 by a margin last start. Even so, hard to suggest.
Comments: This is a super interesting race on paper. Several runners have the Windbern form lines and come off forgive runs in the race. Windburn was bolting in the straight and obviously has to be considered a chance here. Seattle Park almost fell but found the line well enough still… but there is no value in the price today. All Out of Love had its chances for mine and so did Meat Traders. Presscott was the main runner I wanted to follow. Doesn’t map well today but opened $61 and has been into $34.. I want to have something on at those odds on the held up run with no luck. The Spanish Reef form has to be considered the top form coming into this race, so I’m struggling to understand the massive price we are getting for Summer Glen off the Rivette Final run behind Spanish Reef who sat alongside Spanish Reef in the final but was held up for runs 500m to the 250m when had to come out behind Spanish Reef to get a run and lost any advantage. Still finished off strongly and ran past Special Diva. Summer Glen with a 3kg claim comes into this 5.5kg better off than Spanish Reef and from barrier 7 maps for a 1 out 1 back position for the dream run throughout.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Summer Glen – 1 unit Each-Way @ $13/$4.00
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost 3YO Fillies Handicap
1. Moonlover: Got the win on Synthetic two back in BM-70 grade and ran okay really untested last start at Caulfield in a similar grade of race. Nice claim today but hard to rate.
2. O’Rachael: Huge run last start at course and distance from a wide barrier when got back and ran on well. Much better barrier today and will be hard to hold out. Big chance.
3. Mystified: Duel nominated and most likely go to Adelaide. Continues to run really well and brings Hay Bale form into this race back to 3YO grade. Williams onboard drops the odds and get an awkward run from the barrier.
4. Abriola: Unlucky run and backed last start coming off a Good synthetic win. Hard to know what she can do here.
5. If Not Now When: Continues to be ridden too far back and from the barrier will again today. Always finishes off well but has to go much sooner than she has gone in the past. Not for me.
6. Miss Vesper: Four runs this prep. Ran very well two back at Moonee Valley from on speed but tired leading here last start. Others preferred.
7. Perfect Statute: Won two in a row before fairly beaten last start in BM-64 grade. Not for me.
8. Mandee: Placed last two starts as favourite on Pakenham synthetic and takes a big jump in grade.
9. Ariaz: Griffiths runner blinkers first time. Beena bit disappointing the past few runs and I just can’t have her.
10. Queen Annabel: Maiden winner first up but thrown in the deep end and has struggled as of late. Needs further.
11. Honey Magic: Donald winner last start in 58 grade race. Not here.
12. Nil Desperandum: Mildura maiden winner. Good luck.
13. Rather Silky: First up horrible on heavy. Previous prep ran okay in 64 grade but just not up to this grade on form.
14. Sweet Perfume: Maiden winner last prep. First up today and hard to suggest.
15. Miss Manhattan: Heavy track maiden winner heading into this. Couldn’t win at Murtoa on dryer.
16. Shaanxi City: Maiden winner at Yarra Valley two back. Very plain last start in easier grade.
17. Lebombo Rose: Ballarat maiden winner before well beaten in CL1 grade last start at Ballarat.
18. Jubile Blue: Ballarat maiden 3rd last start. Can’t win on recent form.
Comments: Hoping Mystified goes to Adelaide with such a bad barrier. O’Rachael clear top pick from last start run while Moonlover looks well over the odds.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4
Strategy: Back O’Rachael and Moonlover
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Sheamus Mills Bloodstock 3YO Handicap
2. Nikitas: Got the right run and win last start from an inside barrier. Up in weight but can still run well. Just a bad barrier today so needs luck.
3. Revolving Door: May need a bit of luck again this start after a win and two seconds on the board. Lost two back due to a piss poor front running ride and last start 3-wide the trip no cover was huge. Will most likely be 1-2 back the fence today and with the right run will be hard to hold out especially if the speed is on. Personally though, I can’t see an overly strong tempo unless Mystic pushes it along so I’m not as convinced as others at this horse being a moral.
4. Hay Bale: Sit and sprint winner for us last week at Flemington with no early speed in the race and he was able to put in some cracking late sectionals. Up to 1400m today but I actually think he is really well suited up to this distance if allowed to control the speed out front again. Will be hard to run past.
5. Jaws of Steel: Horrible last start when wide no cover over 1600m. Step back to 1400m and did win two back beating some okay types. Has some ability.
6. Enigman: Huge spruik horse for the stable but was a big disappointment last start at Caulfield off the stronger tempo. Has to improve… but will be suited by the tempo on speed today.
7. Save Me Ned: Heavy 10 Bool winner last start. Huge step up in class and I can’t see her making the jump.
8. Wayanka: Out the back last start (1L+ off them) and ran on very fairly 4th behind Nikitas last start. Better barrier today and Williams onboard to sit somewhere close to mid-field I’d expect. Form is good enough.
9. Baykool: Carey runner in with 51kg after claims. Won his maiden and then a BM-70 in 3YO grade before pushed to 2800m last start. Had a spell and coming back at 1400m seems strange. Needs further.
10. Iron Machine: Horrible last start at Sandown but ran okay to win a CL1 the run prior. Still believe this horse is well outclassed.
11. Share the Faith: Geelong maiden winner last start over 1400m in slow time. Not here.
12. Tres: Promised a lot as a horse but given very little. Every chance last start just got too far back but ran on well without ever being a threat. Best is good enough to place.
13. Longneck Larry: Moe maiden winner on heavy 8.. Struggle to suggest on current form at weights.
14. Ribbon of Choice: Mildura winner in BM-58 grade last start. Legs below this on paper.
15. Myopic: Looks the main speed danger from out wide. Maiden horse and hasn’t ever run. Hope they scratch.
Comments: With a quick jump to the first turn I really like how Hay Bale maps here for a very easy control of the speed especially if Myopic doesn’t line-up. Hay Bale will be able to control a slow pace tempo out front and set this up for a sit sprinter which we saw was how the horse ran and won last start. Ashlor could cross over early and get a spot outside Hay Bale and looks huge overs at the odds. Revolving Door will have its chances but is best seen off a stronger tempo and is under the odds. Wayanka gets a dream run today with Williams onboard from an inside barrier and has to be considered a live hope also.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 8
Strategy: Hay Bale Each-Way
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – G3 Bletchingly Stakes
1. Lankan Rupee: Injured in the Darley Classic to end last prep when looked to have the race in full control. Clearly didn’t reach career heights coming back from an injury last prep and while he is certainly performing on the training track, there is still a load of questions to be answered. Maps well enough on speed from this Caulfield start and loves Caulfield.
2. Keen Array: Listed winner that has won 3 from 3 at this track and distance. Went close in G2 last prep 4th and ran well enough in a G1 over in WA. Looks a step below the best sprinters but could stand up and deliver off 245 days off.
3. Divine Ten: Nice run 4th in MUCH easier G3 grade of race when no cover throughout. Needs to improve onwards again but has shown to have some ability.
4. Charmed Harmony: Never won over this distance for a reason, he is better suited by 1400m+. Had a spell and come back well… Katie takes the ride again and goes well at this track. Wouldn’t shock to see him run well and will push the speed, but hard to suggest the win first up in this grade.
5. Daytona Grey: Ran a blinder 2nd behind Supido last start at Caulfield but this is a big step up in grade again. Sits around the right price so I can’t see any value.
6. Tashbeeh: Just ignore the horse went around last start as they went too slow the first 400m and the horse just isn’t a sit sprinter. The previous start was good enough to defeat anything and we are getting a big price today. Has to be respected.
7. Supido: Good win last start from out the back at course and distance and won’t be any further forward today. Clearly, will have to be the very best to win this.
8. Duke of Brunswick: Massive run first up and I’m shocked to see them hold him to Caulfield over 1200m. Maps awkwardly but its okay down the straight. Clearly flying right now and Oliver keeps the ride.
9. Murt the Flirt: Flashed home 3rd last start at Caulfield behind Supido etc. Respect but needs to improve again.
10. Chocolate Holic: Weir runner that has trialled twice heading into this and was scratched from a few weeks back to train on a bit more. Best runs in the past have been 1400m+ but should still run well. Lane takes ride. Good barrier.
11. Santa Ana Lane: Every chance the past few starts in easier or similar grades and was a massive run 5th in the G1 Goodford.
12. Ability: 3 runs 0 wins at course in the past. Comes into this off a MV, Flemington and Flemington win. Well up in weights is a huge issue but maps well again.
13. Savanna Amour: G3 winner in Gold Coast last prep. Trialled well on lead in. G2 winner here as well last prep. Respect… but very best over further.
Comments: I’ve looked deep and sharp into this race and there is one runner based on a run two back that I just can’t ignore in Tashbeeh. As long as the stable send out Cory Parish on Tashbeeh to push the tempo early, the horse will be ideally suited. Personally, I want to see them push the tempo and lead and only hand up if Lankan Rupee crosses, but ultimately, I want to see the jockey ride the race to suit our horse with very strong early tempo, strong medium tempo and strong late tempo. That is how Tashbeeh won two back, toughed it out as a grinder, not a horse that sprints home late and there aren’t many that can go that early, mid and late pace in this race to match Tashbeeh.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 6, 8, 10, 12, 13
Strategy: Tashbeeh – 1.5 units Each-Way @ $34/$9.00
Caulfield Race 9 – 1700m – Moiek and Susanne Sambor BM-84 Handicap
1. Lord Durante: Scratched last week and comes up here. Has been running some good races without winning in recent times and back to 1700m and Caulfield looks ideal off the run two back. 58kg and back in BM-84 grade… Can win.
2. Lucky Paddy: Weir runner fourth up. Does best work deeper into preps but isn’t a consistent winner. Got back and just didn’t run on last start from a wide barrier. Better barrier today and back in class.
3. Black Sheep: Weir runner 2nd up today and goes very well 2nd up. Ran nicely over the 1400m in similar grade but easier horses IMO. Nice barrier and maps well. Can run well.
5. Portion Control: Strong win last start at course and distance in easier grade. Only up 4kg for back in grade and same barrier today also. Maps for an ideal mid-field run with speed on and will be hard to hold out.
6. First Course: Stable flying but this horse hasn’t found a win in a long time or even any form. Two runs this prep both horrible but sets up the speed again.
7. Domino Vitale: Terrible first two lead in runs this prep trying to work up in distance but even off the first two runs I can’t have here.
8. Mr Gustavo: Bm-78 7th last start from midfield. Only average and others preferred here.
9. Radical: Forgive run first up and didn’t show a lot last start over 1600m. Up in distance should suit but barrier doesn’t help.
10. Reneged: Down from a Sydney Prep. Gone okay the last two starts including a nice run 0.3L behind Kingsguard which has to be respected. Awkward barrier the only issue.. except they may push forward.
11. Cosmic Lights: Continues to run well without winning. Step back in class today off every chance last start in the Winter Champs final. Previous runs in easier grade should have won but got unlucky. Race setup for him.
12. Freshwater Storm: Old mate loves a hard tempo. Hasn’t won in a while and not going well enough on current form.
13. Electric Fusion: Ran a blinder 2nd last start in easier grade at Flemington. Step up here but good barrier again.
14. Scapa Cove: Many runs this prep but this horse really is a non-winner. Hasn’t gone close the past 4 starts.
15. Hardern: Will push forward from the barrier and probably get 1 back the rails. Last start every chance not good enough. Needs further.
16. Galaxy Raider: Obviously a horse with a big turn of foot but found one better last start in Dulverton which is no disgrace. Get back run on type that will be very far back today. Need luck but is good.
17. Aagas:Bool 3rd on Heavy last start. Can’t see here.
Comments: Galaxy Raider, Cosmic Lights and Portion Control really do look the three main chances here, but I do feel the Weir horses and the Sydney raider have chances also. Cosmic Lights and galaxy Raider both map awkwardly from their wider draws and will need to get back and run on while Portion Control maps 2 lengths closer with a dream run 1 out 2 back or so and will be very hard to get past in the straight. Don’t dismiss Lord Durante either from speed, expect to run a big race today.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 10, 11, 16
Strategy: Portion Control – 2 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.40
