Welcome to The Profits preview from Caulfield on 29 April 2017. We stay at Caulfield for the third week in a row and the rail moves out to the 12m where we can expect some fair racing throughout the day. With a bit of wear on the inside it will be interesting to see Saturday morning just how well it has dried out as we may just get a slight rails bias until they tear into it a bit more throughout the day. I’m expecting we could get down to a Soft 6 range and that would be ideal, but i’m fine with Soft 7 as well. I’ll be re-walking the track Saturday morning and advising of any changes…. but i would only ever do that on very unique circumstances. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bets
Caulfield Race 8 – Charmed Harmony – 4 units @ $4.00 to win. Zebulon 0.8 units @ $6.00 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Miss Vista – 2.5 units @ $4.20 to win. Grey Street 2 units @ $5.00 to win
Best Value Bets
Caulfield Race 2 – Goathland – 1.75 Units Each-Way @ $10/$3.20
Caulfield Race 9 – Rhythm to Spare – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.50
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 6, 10, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 9, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1800m – Ern Jensen Funerals Handicap
1. Soju Warrior: Won 2 from 4 this prep and up to 1800m doesn’t exactly look ideal for mine after he failed to see out the 1600m last start at Sandown. Unknown on soft and failed on heavy in the past. Has to improve.
2. Fomo: NZ bred and last win was on Heavy so will get the track today. Best runs in the past have been well below city class, but the first up win was decent enough.
4. Judelly: 10L maiden win at Stony Creek first up over 1600m. Obviously didn’t beat much but was obviously a decent win. On previous starts he has to improve though.
5. Red Right Hand: Maiden winner. 2nd in Cl1 grade last start and should have trained on to run well.
6. Winkelmann: Bm-64 grade winner over 1600m coming into this. Didn’t beat much on the day but is obviously a decent enough win class wise.
7. Magellan: 0.8L 4th behind Top of the Range and Netherfield last start from on speed. Had every chance the past two starts but looks nicely placed here to improve onwards for a win. Never won on grass.
8. White Lady: Lightly raced maiden class winner over 1600m. Step up again here and has to continue progressing to measure up.
9. Al Cosmic Gift: Maiden winner two back at Geelong over slightly further on a soft surface. Failed to measure up to BM-64 grade last start though at Sale which is a worry.
10. He Ekscels: Beaten favourite the past two starts in maiden class. Huge step up in grade and couldn’t win maidens. No thanks.
11. Stornaway: Maiden winner at Bendigo last start in a nice enough run. Times were only average though and needs to find better than has shown in the past.
Comments: Some really average horses in this race that will never measure up to City grade. I like the chances of Netherfield based on that last start run, but the horse certainly doesn’t map very well today from the wide gate and may need luck in running to win. Magellan looks very well weighted today and suited back to this level of race. If the horse handles the track then I expect it to be the one to beat on speed.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Magellan E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 2000m – Sky High Mt Dandenong Handicap
1. Snitzelwood: Hasn’t ever shown his very best on wetter tracks which is a bit of a concern today. Has been going well in similar grade with a good win two back at Mornington before never suited by the strong tempo last start at Bendigo. Won’t get it as easy out front today but will be on speed.
2. Goathland: Team Williams is flying right now and has all their horses going well. This is a very talented horse with a strong late turn of foot over a staying distance. Importantly, back home in the UK, he is proven on a wet surface with a strong 2nd in a 260k race at Newmarket over 2400m. On the run 2nd behind Gallic Chieftain last prep, this horse is more than good enough to measure up here first up. Maps very well.
3. Zahspeed: Clear speed horse in the race. Seemed to have every chance last start at course over 1800m when ran nicely but was fairly beaten 3rd. Will be pushing the tempo.
4. Hursley: Continues to ‘run well’ without winning. Not the best wet tracker but handles it. While this is a step back in class I think this is certainly a hard task.
5. Wish Come True: Always seemed to have ability but never really measured up tot this grade in recent years. Failed to fire first up.. looking for the run here to then go over the hurdles later.
6. Overberg: Well fancied horse in the Maher stable. Two back was plain in the Mildura Cup but up to 1800m last start ran well from out the back but found one too good. A step up again here.
7. Xebec: Waller runner that seems to have come down from the bit wet up north in search of easier races on dryer tracks… but with the rain we have had, this will be a soft range track. Best runs in the past have been at 2400m or further. Has won on a soft track in much easier.
8. Super Haze: Certainly in the past proved to be a nice type in easier grade over distances. First two runs this prep over 1600m has looked a solid type without impressing. Much better suited up to 2000m but best runs have been on dryer surface.
9. Transfer Allowance: Three runs this prep and hasn’t gone close. Back in class but hard to suggest on current form and past results.
10. Anaheim: Listed winner over 1800m last prep. Resumted this prep with a very nice 5th in the Australian Guineas and then 4th in the Rosehill Guineas Group 1 behind Gingernuts and a few others but didn’t stay the 2400m in the Derby. Steps well back in class here and back to a dryer surface will suit, but there is query over him this far into the prep.
11. Odeon: Strong win at Mornington two back but then a bit disappointing when had every chance in the Port Aguesta Guineas as favourite at Moprhetville last start. This is MUCH harder. Looks well under the odds to me.
12. Lycurgus: Strong win at Caulfield over 2400m last start but steps back to 2000m and up in grade again for mine. Stable likes chances but obviously had a set back not to run on Tuesday and has to improve to beat all these.
14. Mightiest: Three runs this prep all for seconds so hasn’t been far off a win, but this is a big step up in grade again. Can run an okay race though.
Comments: Very keen to have a bet on the progressive Goathland. This stable is flying and he proved last prep that he is more than good enough to win here especially with the key 3kg claim. Maps a dream and the speed is set to be on. Most importantly, proven on a soft surface back in the UK.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Goathland 1.75 Units Each-Way @ $10/$3.20
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – No Fuss Events Hire Handicap
1. Taddei Tondo: Old mate hasn’t gone even close to winning or placing in a race for 8 runs. Well up in the weights here and well back in class.
2. Silver Bolt: Racing nicely back down in Tasmania in similar grades to this but was only placing. Found an easier BM-82 race up to 1400m last start to get the win. Does like it wet but needs to improve back to 1200m.
4. Baby Don’t Cry: BM-78 winner first up at Bendigo in quite a nice run. Form behind hasn’t exactly set the world on fire though. Failed to place at Warwick Farm on heavy last start. Back to dryer but has to improve again.
5. Cosmic Lights: First up today. Last prep won well first up over 1000m in similar grade. Then ran a blinder over 1500m 2nd behind Burning Front. Nice trial lead in here on heavy.. clearly goes well over these distances and on wet.
6. Dane Thunder: 1200m 4th first up with a big weight in easier company. Ran home well. Will improve onwards and upwards and go nicely today, but has never won at this distance and best in the past has always been over further.
8. Lauchetti: Won three of last four going through the grades. Was a nice win over 1200m last start at Sandown from on speed but did get the times to suit. Maps perfectly to run very well. Big chance
9. Schneller: First up at Caulfield showed very little. Goes okay in similar grade and on soft but this is a big ask.
10. Sir Mask: Big win two back at Mornington but just very claim last start at Caulfield. Was a big improvement on speed run at Mornington. Tough to see again here from barrier.
11. Mr Sneaky: Very strong win at Flemington over 1400m. Steps back to 1200m today and onto a wet track. Should handle it fine. The faster they won the better his chances.
12. Typhoon Jolie: Expected to lead today. Pushed them around last start at a strong pace with Miss Vista and was well beaten. Hard to see a win.
13. Foreign Affair: Fairly beaten on lead in run behind Maternal. Previous run wasn’t much better. Has to improve.
14. Wind Force: Always looked a good type but has taken a long time to come good. Nice win at Echuca last start and a win wouldn’t be a total shock.
Comments: A tough race to bet into. I couldn’t take the shorts about Mr Sneaky. Cosmic Lights maps too far back and our top pick in the race was scratched this morning. Lauchetti is the one that maps to get all the breaks and to win this race.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lauchetti E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Changing Places Real Estate Handicap
1. Merriest: Average at best first up in March. Trialed since and then won very well last start at course and distance. Wetter track the only difference today. Poorly in at weights after the win.
2. Moonlites Choice: Weir runner that hit the line well ridden for luck first up from a bad barrier. Not much better today and expect a similar run. Loves it wet
3. If Not Now When: Two runs this prep were not great. Unseen on wet tracks. Best on previous runs probably good enough but hasn’t shown much this prep.
4. Snitty Kitty: Strong win first up in much easier grade at Yarra Valley and then won very well last start at Caulfield. Expect similar great run and better weighted again. Unknown on wet.
5. Soviet Secret: Disappointing run last start when in a good spot and just didn’t find alot. Hard to have on form.
7. Pearl Congenial: Last prep went through the grades well before pulling up lame at Flemington. Poor first up at Bendigo.
10. Call Me Tess: Poor first up. Last prep didn’t find much and previous prep not up to the top grades.
11. Menabrea: Kilmore maiden winner last start. Previous preps didn’t get a maiden. Can’t have on first up run.
12. Airino: Yarra Valley maiden winner to end last prep. Tough ask first up but obviously well weighted.
13. Club Tropicana: Maiden winner first up at Cranbourne. Time was only fair at best.
Comments: Happy to take the chance with Snitty Kitty at the weights.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Snitty Kitty E/W
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Thoroughbred Club Cup
1. Doubt I’m Dreaming: One start one win in a listed grade race with a massive win at Moonee Valley. Beat a very nice type in Muraaqeb. Trial since was another big run and win. Looks a quality 2YO.
2. Al Passem: Two starts, two wins. Last start had them chase him but just kept on going with the top weight and outlasted them. Clearly a good type but has to handle the wet.
3. Kobayashi: Strong win at course and distance last start a few weeks back. Looked a very good type and the real deal from on speed. Can go well here.
4. Seized: Yet to win a race. Has run well though 2nd at course and distance in the sires last start on soft and previous run 4th at Bendigo. Obviously a good chance here.
5. Indernile: Poor to end last prep in the Prelude coming off a very strong run from out the back in the Preview. Has a turn of foot and if he has matured onwards and upwards he will be hard to hold out from out the back.
9. Basanite: Two trials heading into this. Didn’t convince me anywhere near as much as the stablemate has.
11. Proposal: Couldn’t win in maiden grade heading into this so hard to suggest even a place.
13. Auditioned: Unseen Price runner. Nicely enough bred. Win wouldn’t be a total shock but not for mine.
Comments: This is a race with some of the very best 2YOs we have still in training going around.. really the next pack to emerge and there are some beauty’s. Indernile on his last prep has to be considered a chance. Seized brings strong form lines into this from the last two runs. Al Passem also just keeps running and running well. The two to beat for mine though are Kobayashi who looks a very good type on that first up run and Doubt I’m Dreaming who looked a very very very good type in his first run at Moonee Valley. I can’t be against Doubt I’m Dreaming but I can’t be overly confident at the odds either.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Doubt I’m Dreaming to win.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Next Payments Handicap
1. Artie Dee Two: Strong win last start at Moonee Valley in a very good time infront of a nice type in Ken’s Dream who has since franked the form. Freshened up. Will sit midfield and charge home. Handles wet track.
2. Extra Olives: Ran a very strong run over 1400m two back 2nd behind Kenedna at Flemington in G3 company. Last start in Canberra Guineas was a little flat and there is a step back to 1200m today which looks ideal with the 3kg claim.
3. Highland Beat: Looked a very good type two preps back and got a win in nice company. Last prep ran some good races with two solid seconds behind Russian Revolution and Defcon at course over similar distances. Unproven on the wet surface but obviously has ability.
4. Leotie: A very talented type that ran I Am A Star to 0.2L last prep over 1100m at this track in a G3 race. Then won very well over 1400m here after that. First up was just a fail at Flemington and a forgive run. Can go better.
5. Valliano: Failed to fire first up at course and distance. Two preps back did measure up at course and distance to be good enough to win here. Look for money backing.
6. Capannello: 3YO winner at Flemington four runs back. Failed to place since. This looks a tough ask.
8. Wise Hero: Trailled very well heading into this. Last prep went through the grades and measured up well. This is a big step up again.
9. Widgee Turf: Another coming in off a strong trial. Last prep better over further than this but it’s impossible to knock the run 2nd to Fuhryk at Moonee Valley. Clearly has ability and well in at weights and nice barrier to get a charmed run.
10. Bord de Gain: Two runs for two wins. Huge jump in class and ask here but times have been sound enough to suggest a nice run.
11. Sheriff John Stone: BM-64 grade winner three back. Up in class the last two starts. Certainly ran well two back 3rd at Flemington but up against it on last start run.
12. Terindah: Bm-58 grade winner last start. Huge jump in class. Hard to suggest.
14. Liberty Song: Always had talent but hasn’t won in yonks. Well out classed here.
15. Hollywoodgirl: Maiden only winner. Ran quite well two back behind Brugal Reward. Next start was a good run behind Ashlor also at Moonee Valley. Big jump in class again.
16. Katsuro: Maiden winner. Beaten in BM-64 last start when held up. Obviously better than that, but needs to improve.
Comments: This is a great race to watch but not so much for betting. The two horses that map to have the tactical advantages today are Artie Dee Two and Extra Olives just on the speed or slightly further back. I obviously like the chances of a few others here with a wide Quaddie leg. Good race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Back both Artie Dee Two and Extra Olives
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – LU Simon Builders Handicap
1. Pretty Possum: Good win first up at Moonee Valley but this is obviously MUCH tougher and she won’t get to lead them around.
2. Estaminet: Last prep went around many a times but only just the one win. Obviously a good type of horse but first up in this grade is up against it. Has to be at her best and beyond.
3. Aegean Sea: First up. Trial coming in was decent. Last prep didn’t score a win. Tough ask first up in this grade.
4. Espiritu: Couldn’t score a win in Doomben in the past 5 runs but has been running nicely enough. Hard to see the improvement to win.
5. Aunty Mo: Three runs this prep but failed to get a win. Beaten fairly in easier grade heading into this.
6. Miss Vista: Huge win last start at course and distance. Won a very strong trial on a soft 6 heading into this which Merriest has franked the form from since. Looks the ideal type to handle this. She is the real deal.
9. Pink Perfection: Been disappointing all prep in easier grades of races. Best seen on dryer surfaces.
10. Grey Street: Flew home last start from a good spot to just miss behind Miss Vista at course and distance. Fairly beaten on the day.. but gets a weight turn around here. Has won on heavy in the past.
11. Majestic Lass: 3YO winner first up at course over 1200m to start last prep… then failed to place the next four runs. Obviously has ability but best seen on dryer.
13. Belsapphire: Two runs this prep. Beaten first up in BM-64 grade and fairly beaten last start in BM-78 grade. Have to take on.
Comments: I’m very keen to play here on Miss Vista and Grey Street. They gapped the rest last start in very hot time and they both look ideally placed to not only handle the surface conditions today but map to give us a horse from the front and also from midfield to cover all bases.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 6, 10, 11
Strategy: Miss Vista – 2.5 units @ $4.20. Grey Street 2 units @ $5.00
Caulfield Race 8 – 1440m – Thoroughbred Club 50th Year in 2018 Stakes
1. Charmed Harmony: Huge run last start at course and similar distance. The extra 40m is ideal today meaning he will get the front with ease and be leading up the hill around the first bend. The softer track is even more ideal for him and i’m hoping we get to a soft 6-7 which would be absolutely perfect. Looks very hard to run down at his best.
2. Star Exhibit: Perth Cup winner last prep. Best over further. Does certainly run a nice 1600m and will go okay over 1400m, but needs the run and wants further for this class of race.
3. Master Reset: Cranbourne Cup winner two back over 1600m at Cranbourne. Ran horrible last start behind Charmed Harmony. Best runs on dryer and not sure he is well in at weights.
4. Zebulon: Very strong trial leading in when 2nd behind Super Cash in fast time on the day. Hasn’t run in a year but is certainly a very nice horse that measures up to Group class. Last win was over 1400m by 4L over a very nice type in Rocket Commander. Will love the speed on out front and looks a key threat from off the speed.
5. Heart Starter: G3 winner back home in WA over 1400m so certainly a nice enough type to measure up here today. Never run on wet surfaces though. Ended last prep not in the great conditions so certainly will need to be at peak to beat these.
6. Dan Zephyr: Three runs this prep and they were all fair but not super. Had every chance last start in same race as Charmed harmony and couldn’t match it.. Can’t see it here.
7. Whistle Baby: Ran home nicely last start in a much easier race than this. 7 runs for 0 wins on soft. Obviously going nicely enough with the 2nd last start but needs to improve to place here.
8. Eximius: Two trials leading in. Always been a very hard horse to catch and a year between runs won’t help first up in this grade.
10. Top Me Up: Looks poorly placed in this race today. Only really ever wins from the front and while the past two starts he has won very well, this is a very different race with got busting pressure on out front from Charmed Harmony. He is also really unproven on this type of ground. At the price I just have to take him on.
Comments: Very happy to play a big win bet on Charmed Harmony with a saver bet on Zebulon
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 10
Strategy: Charmed Harmony – 4 units @ $4.00. Zebulon 0.8 units @ $6.00.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1600m – Treasury Wine Estates Handicap
1. Onpicalo: Unfancied first up over 1400m at Caulfield and was poor at best from off the speed. Gets a much wetter track today over further which is ideal. More than a month between runs and we can expect them to push forward with the 3kg claimer onboard.
2. Petrology: Impossible horse to catch. Best on dryer and one i’m very keen to take on with the wet track today. Was a nice run first up.
3. Rhythm to Spare: Hasn’t won in a very long time. First up run was decent at course over 1400m when ran on nicely. Goes okay on softer tracks and back in class suits up to 1600m. Over the odds.
4. Lord Durante: Three runs this prep and found nothing on all three attempts to suggest even a close run today. Take on.
5. Nevis: Horrible first up when sat off the speed and found nothing at the turn. Last prep had very similar. Not convinced at all with this horse from the Williams team. Best is good enough to run well but hasn’t shown it.
6. The Chairman: Strong run 3rd last start behind Curragh and Sadaqa and course and distance. Goes okay on wetter tracks but this is a big test again.
8. Loving Home: Handicap winner last prep at Traralgon over further. Handles wet fine but wants further.
9. Curragh: Strong run 2nd last start at course and distance. Won 3 from 4 on soft in the past and looks ideally placed. Hard to beat perfect barrier and weights.
10. Bradman: Old mate always seems to run consistently well but this looks well beyond him on past runs this prep.
11. Fastnet Latina: Won four in a row going through the grades. Last start over this distance was by 3 lengths. Never seen a wet track the concern.
12. Subiaso: Found nothing first up. Can’t have on last prep or this prep runs.
Comments: Fastnet Latina and Curragh certainly deserve to be favourites but I really feel Rhythm to Spare ran a blinder last start in a much harder race and maps for an ideal run suited up to 1600m and on this track condition at big odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 9, 11
Strategy: Rhythm to Spare – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.50
