Welcome to The Profits form guide for the Caulfield meeting on 28 April 2018. A solid card of racing is presented to us and hopefully the track plays fair as expected with clear skies and low winds expected. Looking forward to a solid day on track – as always, good luck and happy punting.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1600m – No Fuss Events Handicap – 3YO Fillies
2. Snogging: Disappointed last start in similar class when went around single figures. Very solid win first up. Last start too bad to be true? Can improve.
3. I’m Buxom: Three runs this prep. Couldn’t win a Class 1 the last two starts. Hard to suggest here.
4. Kaluna: On speed in a very slowly run maiden last start and got the win. No surprise really off that tempo. A lot to prove.
5. Princess Mia: Led them around far too fast at Caulfield last start. Deserved to fall out of it. Don’t be surprised if goes much better here.
6. Diamond Bow: Measured up last prep to a solid class. First up this prep in easier finished off well in slowly run race. Better here.
8. Second Marriage: Strong maiden win three back at Pakenham. Respectable last two starts. Can improve.
9. Uptown Gal: Couldn’t win Class 1 last start. Hard to suggest on current form but not the worst here.
10. Casares: Strong run in a little easier at Sandown when 4th last start. Can measure up.
11. Alberta Magic: Three runs to date. Couldn’t win a maiden.
Top Chances: Snogging, Casares
High Chances: Princess Mia, Diamond Bow
Medium Chances: Second Marriage, Uptown Gal
Low Chances: I’m Buxom, Kaluna
Very Low Chances: Alberta Magic
Expected Speed: Enough tempo here with a few going forward. 1L-5L above Benchmark early.
Comments: Snogging come up favourite as expected. Casares looks the progressive type who maps well and is clear value in the race. Diamond Bow and Princess Mia look main dangers.
Caulfield Race 2 – 1200m – L.U. Simon Builders Handicap – Mares
1. Hear The Chant: Disappointing last on lead in at course and similar distance when 3-wide the trip. Even so was poor. Previous run no luck worst part of track. Strong win first up. If back to best goes very close. Maps well today.
2. Deja Blue: Can run okay times. Best seen on speed. Looks to get spot behind leader. Fit but not going well enough for mine.
3. Mamzelle Tess: Surprise winner second up and then failed to get a win since. Continues to run consistent times that would go well to measure up here. Maps well here.
4. Moonlover: Best seen last prep over 1400m. First up only fair when back against pattern and blocked for runs in straight. Can improve.
5. Divine Quality: First up here over suitable distance. Looks to get back on rail and may need luck in straight. Trialed well enough on lead in.
6. Creativity: Good type of horse. Consistently rates well and maps very well and favoured here. More than good enough to beat this lot.
7. Alta Stella: Last start 0.2L 3rd to Concealer in Adelaide with strong late sectionals. Had ideal spot in run. Maps well on speed here and could be good enough.
8. She’s Positive: Won at Mornington Two back and then failed last start here at Caulfield. Best is still a step below.
9. Jocasta: Been up a long time. Measured up and run well in past at Caulfield, but this does look another level on paper.
10. Scoliaro: Weir runner coming off a close 4th at Sandown. Never run time to suggest a win in this grade, but 51kg and Weir factor hard to ignore.
Top Chances: Creativity, Hear The Chant
High Chances: Mamzelle Tess, Alta Stella, Moonlover
Medium Chances: Scoliaro, Divine Quality
Low Chances: Jocasta, Deja Blue
Very Low Chances: She’s Positive
Expected Speed: Very uncertain speed map with Deja Blue and Mamzelle Tess chances to take lata Stella and Creativity on for the lead. Anywhere from 2 below benchmark to 5 above benchmark early.
Comments: Surprised and shocked by the price of Divine Quality here – think the horse maps awkwardly and query the horses class here. Hear The Chant has to lug around a big weight compared to the field but would be very hard to beat from mapping on a repeat of first up form. Creativity is the progressive type that has a winning spirit and maps well on speed while Alta Stella is the unknown coming out of a slowly run race. Mamzelle Tess can’t be ignored here either. Quite a few chances, but value around.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – Ern Jensen FUnerals – BM-90
1. Fidaawy: Good type of horse that should measure up over here. 112+ Timeform rating over 2400m. Best seen 200m+ in past and goes well on Soft all the way up to Firm tracks. Did win maiden over 1566m. 1600m short of very best, but horse has to be considered on class.
2. Raghu: EX Hong Kong galloper. Into 2nd prep here. Failed to fire first up. Previous prep won well over 1600m in Open grade.
3. Sircconi: Failed to fire in the Bendigo Guineas first up and this looks much easier. Ended last prep with placings in 3YO listed grade and open grade win before that. Suited if back to best.
4. Riyadh: Strong last start 2nd to Kings Will Dream. Looks comfortable in this class and freshen up ideal. Weighted well.
5. Lizard Island: Had the chance the last few runs to prove he was able to win again. Shown no signs. Take on.
6. Sunday Pray: Good lead in run win in easier at Sandown. Need to run a similar race to measure up here but has to peak to win. Respect enough.
7. Portman: Disappointed the past three runs this prep. Has the ability to win this, but hasn’t shown what has been needed all prep. A month between runs and maps well here.
8. My Paisann: Got home ok but not super last start in much easier at Pakenham. Better suited to races with a load of speed. Gets that today.
9. Don’t Get Excited: Nice second to Galaxy Raider on lead in at Sandown. Step up in grade but times are sound from this horse now and in the past.
Top Chances: Riyadh, Portman
High Chances: Sunday Pray, My Paisann
Medium Chances: Fidaawy, Sirconni
Low Chances: Raghu, Don’t Get Excited
Very Low Chances: Lizard Island
Expected Speed: Sirconni to run them around 2-6L above benchmark
Comments: Hard to ignore the price they are giving us again today for Riyadh with a space between runs. Portman at the price probably worth another chance as well. Sunday Pray a nice type but looks short and the same can be said for Fidaawy who the Hayes stable have all but declared – looks to short a distance to me.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – MyPunter.Com – BM-70
3. Chapel Road: Consistent ype but hasn’t run ‘times’ all prep. Stays in same class and top weight.
5. Magnesprit: Two wins in a row on lead in. Never run a time that measures up to this level in the past is a worry. High weight considering. On speed.
6. The Card Players: Failed to fire last prep. Previous prep BM-70 grade winner over 1400m at Sandown. Best runs clearly over further the issue.
7. Wilde Gem: Nice run 3rd to William Thomas last start at Sandown. Has run times this prep that will go close. Position in run the query.
8. Reward With Return: Failed to show anything first up. Short turnaround. While some forgive for last start, has to find lengths on peak.
9. Vostok: Hard horse to catch at the best of times. Three runs this prep but not gone close. Back in distance, Oliver on.
10. Makahu Boy: BM-58 winner on lead in. Hard horse to rate here. Could run well. Map hurts.
12. Keep Courting: Won two from three on lead in. Last start win was similar class. Was strong late and horse looks a nice type. Query map.
13. Pleasant: Very strong 6L win at Pakenham first up. Looks the likely leader here and will be very hard to get past.
14. Rockets Red Glare: Get back run on type. Flew home at Cranbourne but was too far off them. Can run nicely here.
15. Cleopatra’s Glory: Won three from 5 in the past but has been placed really well. Not convinced she is well in here. Maps poorly.
16. Annrhon: Well out of class in Group 3 company last start when wasn’t terrible. Well back in class here and should get a nice spot in run. Williams onboard.
17. Mr Sinatra: Two runs this prep. Not the worst run first up off a slow early tempo. Poor last start though.
18. Believing: Close 3rd at Yarra Valley last start behind Famelist who has run well and won since. Always runs well in this grade and will be competitive. Spot in run the query.
19. The Centaurian: Ran nicely last start at Cranbourne 2nd up. Times respectable start and finish. Nice weight.
20. Written Choice: Strong form last prep. Horrible run/ride first up. Much better than that if fast away.
Top Chances: Written Choice
High Chances: Annrhon, Pleasant, Believing
Medium Chances: Wilde Gem, The Centaurian, Keep Courting, Chapel Road
Low Chances: Magnesprit, Rockets Red Glare, Vostok, Mr Sinatra, The Card Players, Makahu Boy, Cleopatra’s Glory
Very Low Chances: Reward With Return
Expected Speed: Not overly strong tempo expected. Benchmark to 4L above Benchmark.
Comments: Pleasant looks a very good type but hard to get as short as $2.70. The clear value and top pick in the race is Written Choice. Will need a good ride from the positon in running, but looks ideally suited here. Annrhon looks the main threat to those two along with Believing who is well over the odds if they can run on.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Changing Places Real Estate Handicap – 3YO
1. Kentucky Breeze: Lightly raced. Small rest between runs here. Continues to run times but didn’t get close this prep. Back in class here and distance but certainly tough ask with weight.
2. Reilmartini: Strong win last start at course and distance improving significantly on what had done in the past. Strong closing speeds and suited just off the leaders. Maps further back here.
3. William Thomas: Ran very well last start at Caulfield when found one better. Should get a sit today and have every chance.
4. Sun Quan: Won three in a row last prep. Query if still good enough even if trained on to win again here. Okay type.
5. Villa Sarchi: Ran home okay last start from out back in the Reilmartini race. No match though as too far back due to being slow away. More forward today wouldn’t shock. Don’t dismiss chances.
6. Lakhoni: BM-64 grade winner this prep then found himself much further back in a fast run race next start. Was ok but not super.
7. Golden Key: Class 1 winner on lead in after a strong maiden win. Huge class jump here and hasn’t gone anywhere close to times required for this.
8. Light Romance: Nice type of horse and won well last start at Sandown on speed. Was a strongly run race and beat some nice types. First up here the query – more than good enough.
9. Tarcoola Spirit: Had her chance tow back at Flemington and just ran into some very good types. A little disappointing last start not finishing off well at course and distance – may have been a few reasons to forgive and give one more chance.
10. Gaudi: Stable have an opinion of this horse. Never run times and lead in run was average at best.
11. She’s Popular: Lightly raced type first up here. Best runs last prep were over further.
12. Exceltara: Couldn’t win a Class 1 on lead in. Times only average. Has to improve to measure up. Struggle to suggest.
13. Huge Action: Best run ever last start in BM-64 just missing at Sandown. Huge jump in class here and had perfect time last start.
14. Redcore: Not suited in any way shape or form held up for runs last start and still almost got the win. Jump in grade here but horse is quality. If they can run on, can win.
Top Chances: William Thomas
High Chances: Redcore, Light Romance, Reilmartini, Tarcoola Spirit,
Medium Chances: Villa Sarchi, Kentucky Breeze, Huge Action, Sun Quan
Low Chances: Gaudi, She’s Popular, Lakhoni
Very Low Chances: Golden Key, Exceltara
Expected Speed: Expect Light Romance to push the tempo to attempt to repeat the last start peak run off a hot tempo. Could go 3-8L above benchmark.
Comments: William Thomas will be on speed and very hard to hold out. If they can run on Redcore is a massive price and chance to come over the top late along with Tarcoola Spirit and Reilmartini. Don’t dismiss Light Romance from on speed – best more than good enough.
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Throughbred Club Redoute’s Choices – 2YO
1. Sunset Watch: Strong win last start when well backed and delivered the goods. Likes this track, likes the one bend, will try and lead or sit OL and be hard to run down. Can improve.
2. Dalswinton: 1.9L off Thrillster last start at Bendigo. Times were average at best but winner has come out and won since. Hard to fully dismiss considering spot in run last start.
3. Fighting Harada: Times were decent last start at Ballarat behind a horse that came out and measured up in city class. 62 days between runs, if trained on can figure.
4. Deejaybeat: No public Trials. Little known stable. If money comes keep an eye on runner.
5. Sikorsky: Hayes stable. Oliver onboard. Backed in Markets. Stable continue to bring out good horses at this time of year. Respect.
6. Let Me Sleep On It: Several runs already on lead in. Went close two back at Sandown in easier. Not the worst… but has to improve.
7. Illuminaire: On speed type. Yet to get a win but been going around in similar class. Had every chance on speed last few starts. Struggle to suggest to win but looks a good place chance.
8. Daskarzine: Two lead in runs. Last start slowly run early was able to run past them late. Step up here.
9. Persuader: Showed strong closing speed first up at Mornington too far back in a slowly run race. Can improve and looks a type.
Top Chances: Sunset Watch
High Chances: Sikorsky, Persuader
Medium Chances: Illuminaire, Dalswinton, Fighting Harada
Low Chances: Daskarzine, Let Me Sleep On It
Very Low Chances: Deejaybeat
Expected Speed: Sunset Watch and Illuminaire expected to lead them around anywhere from Benchmark to 4L above benchmark.
Comments: Not a lot of exposed form here. Sunset Watch looks a real good type and the obvious top pick. Persuader looks the big improver at odds while you have to respect the first starter from the Hayes yard.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1100m – Honan Insurance Group – 3Yo Fillies
1. Blondie: Disappointed on return from spell last start on leading. Was wide throughout. Times in past can obviously measure up with a Listed win on the form. Wide draw.
2. Leather’n’lace: Very strong second first up behind Booker. Sensational final 600m times. Will sit wide but with cover. Has the ability to come over the top of them here.
3. Twitchy Frank: Been up forever. Strong run two back in Group class and back down to BM-70 last start every chance 3rd. Has run the times obviously. Most importantly, speed looks on.
5. Freeze Over: Found a slowly run race on speed suited at Bendigo last start. Had every chance and just not good enough to hold out Holy Blade or another. Can go much faster here but hasn’t been suited last two times doing that. Hard horse to catch.
6. Sanadaat: Hayes stable runner that looked suited in Open and listed grade. Won well first up in similar grade to this last prep. Respect horses ability and maps well on speed with a sit.
7. Island Daze: Lightly raced type. BM-64 grade winner last start for Kent stable. Has to improve but obviously progressive.
8. Camila Lucinda: Another on-speed type going forward. BM-64 grade win two back last prep was solid enough, but clearly another level needed here.
10. Keano Town: 2.5L trial winner between runs. CL1 winner last start. Never runs times required to win this the query. Low weight.
11. Chateau Griffo: Finally found a win two back at Bendigo. Last start they went too slow at Sandown and horse wasn’t suited. Best in past has been off a reasonable tempo and will get that here. Has the ability.
12. Grey Shadow: Third run ever today. Solid run first up at Sandown just missing behind Island Daze from on speed. Has to improve but nice enough type.
13. Jungle Queen: Couldn’t win BM-64 grade races on lead in here. Hard to see with step up today. Never run times required.
14. Geneva Diva: Maiden winner last prep. Trial between runs nice enough. Never run times but looks progressive. Still a step below them?
16. Balle D’Or: Looked a nice type last prep. Maiden winner but only just first up. Query on these horses form coming from Smerdon stable.
17. Faith In Hand: Maiden winner first up. Big jump needed.
Top Chances: Sanadaat, Leather’n’lace
High Chances: Chateau Griffo, Twitchy Frank
Medium Chances: Island Daze, Camila Lucinda, Blondie, Freeze Over
Low Chances: Geneva Diva, Grey Shadow, Balle D’Or
Very Low Chances: Keano Town, Jungle Queen, Faith In Hand
Expected Speed: Massive speed on here. Many going forward. 5L+ above benchmark. Everyone gets their chance.
Comments: Very hard race to be confident here. Speed for days, quite a even bunch of good horses. Chateau Griffo looks the value but hard to be confident.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – Next Payments BM-84
1. Runson: Strong run and win last start at Caulfield smashing the field by 4L. Set strong sectionals and a repeat here very very hard to beat.
2. Leodoro: Continues to run well. Good 2nd behind Land of Plenty on lead in at Bendigo from an unwinnable position. Tough map.
3. Bel Burgess: Two preps back best runs were on speed off a tough strong tempo. Big runs. Hasn’t done that since. Hard to suggest unless looks at top in yard.
4. Refulgent: Poor run first up. Needs tougher than that and gets it here. Can go ok?
5. Carraig Aonair: Poor run firs tup over 1200m. Better as gets deeper into prep. Best over 1600m+
6. Wayanka: Two runs this prep and failed to get close on all occasions. If at top in yard today can go well. Last prep runs good.
8. Rich Luck: Trial between runs. Very disappointing last start. Previous run also below best. Needs to have improved again.
9. Dan Zephyr: Two runs with new stable. Not gone close to a win in a long time and hard to see it here.
10. Castelo: Good win first up. Two back run wasn’t bad at Caulfield but well below the class needed last start. If speed is on horse will be suited.
12. Notio: Good type of horse. Found a very slowly run race last start at Ballarat and was always going to be able to out sprint them. Previous two runs suggest horse is well in here.
14. Spanner Head: Strong win first up at Flemington in easier grade. Previous prep close 2nd at Flemington in Open class. First up here.
16. Flying Murty: Has been well backed. Hasn’t run times yet but big wrap about the horse. Poor barrier and hard to get the horse so short.
17. Eclair Calling: First up run this prep was okay but not super. Horse has ability from what has been shown in past. Low weight.
Top Chances: Runson
High Chances: Notio, Castelo, Spanner Head
Medium Chances: Flying Murty, Leodoro
Low Chances: Eclair Calling, Rich Luck, Refulgent, Bel Burgess
Very Low Chances: Dan Zephyr, Carraig Aonair, Wayanka
Expected Speed: Bel Burgess and Runson look the main leaders here.
Comments: Runson looks ideally placed here. A repeat of last start would have the horse very hard to beat. Notio going very well this prep and ready to win but will need luck in running. The same for Castelo who will be suited by the tempo.
Caulfield Race 9 – 2000m – Victorian Transport Association – BM-84
1. Glorious Sinndar: Been running okay in harder than this on lead in… but really looking for further and the hurdles.
2. Harlow Gold: 1400m 4th first up and then disappointed at Rosehill with Thumps and a few other issues. Forgive that run, best good enough for this horse here.
3. Hursley: Didn’t fire a shot first up over 1700m. Has won in the past over 2000m in this type of grade. Loves speed on.
7. Jaminzah: Three runs this prep and shown nothing even at suitable distances. Good horse on last prep form… but not going well right now.
8. Jaameh: 104+ Timeform rating at very best over 2800m+. Can run a race here but hard to see winning.
9. Prima: Continues to run well this prep. A very strong 3rd last start over 1800m from on speed at Caulfield. Loves a strong tempo. Last start run would go well here. Looks ideally placed with mapping and lack of other speed runners.
10. Top of the Range: Get back run on type. Just missed last start at Caulfield when ridden closer to the speed. Continues to run well this prep – nice type. Map the hurt.
11. He Ekscels: 2nd in a slowly run race last start at Cranbourne. Flemington run two back was solid. Needs to improve.
13. Noumea: Nice lead in run last start at Caulfield when held up at bad times. Solid times. Can run well and improve again here.
14. Cullingworth: Five runs this prep and failed to produce a run recently that would be winning here. Always been a good tyep but needs a specific race run to suit.
15. Lycurgus: Ran poorly first up. Horse has ability but couldn’t win last prep. Need to be at best.
16. Hazard Ahead: Go forward type. But never puts speed on. Step below these.
17. Californiagrandcru: Big jump in class. Not terrible two back at Sale. Hard to suggest.
18. No Commitment: Continues to run well and continues to be under-estimated. Poor barrier and gets back, but could push forward for a spot?
Top Chances: Prima,
High Chances: Harlow Gold
Medium Chances: Jaminzah, Hursley, No Commitment, Top of the Range, Noumea
Low Chances: Jaameh, Cullingworth, Lycurgus, He Ekscels, Glorious Sinndar
Very Low Chances: Californiaghrancru, Hazard Ahead
Expected Speed: Prima the likely leader. Expect tempo 2-4L above benchmark. May be hard to make ground with times run especially late in day?
Comments: Want to be playing the on-speed runners. Wanting to be all around Prima here while Harlow Gold off a forgive run can run well. Wide open race after that after scratchings of the two internationals.
