Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 27 January 2018. The rail moves in from the 12m to the 6m position from the last meeting and with such an early start and cooler weather than was predicted, every runner with the right tempo should have their chances. This meeting will be significantly affected by scratchings and will give us strong races for betting into. I’ll be on track as usual so keep an eye on twitter. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Smart Coupe – 6 units @ $2.30. Magnesium Rose – 1.6 units @ $4.80
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Diapason – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.20
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 9 – Jacquinot Bay – 1.5 Units @ $5.50/$1.83
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 1 – Pretty Punk – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.55
Caulfield Race 5 – Runson – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.20 (3-places with Betfair)
Caulfield Race 7 – Kedleston – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.20
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – Cape Grim Beef Plate Handicap
1. Master of Arts: Got back and ran on well enough last start in a race dominated by leaders. Looking for a stronger race here in handicap class.
2. Articus: Out of character role last start over 2000m when made to lead and run down at critical stage by Pretty Punk. Williams to Lane. Best good enough.. blinkers off?
3. Fanatic: Wants a hard strong tempo here. Last two wins were over 2800m+. Needs the run over this distance but did trial well.
4. Sayed: First up run sat on speed and out sprinted. Obviously wants more pace on today but even so has to improve.
5. Araldo Junior: Best runs in the past over further than this. First up showed nothing at the Bool. Patty back onboard.
6. Pretty Punk: Heated in the yard last start but was fit and ready and just won well beating some nice types including Articus. Good barrier again and hard to hold out.
7. The Chairman: Off the speed and stormed home 2nd last start behind Jacquinot Bay. Wants more speed on here but clearly go well.
8. Golden Mane: Best runs in last have been with pace on. Last start they went around 2.5 seconds slower and that hurt her. Not well in at weight vs Pretty Punk here an issue.
9. Velox: Three runt his prep and yet to place. Two back run had merit at Morphetville but average last start off slow tempo behind Jac Bay.
11. Night’s Watch: Back from his failed trip north. Clearly best more than good enough to beat these.
Comments: Araldo Junior will lead them around with TheChairman, Articus and Sayed pushing forward from outside while O’lonera and Pretty Punk will kick up. Pretty Punk, Articus and Golden Mane all come out of very strongly run contests while The Chariman, Sayed and Master of Arts come out of sit and sprint home races. Night’s Watch may have to run a career best to win here. Pretty Punk maps perfectly, is coming off a career peak run and a repeat close to that will be good enough to measure up here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Pretty Punk – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.55
Caulfield Race 2 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preview (C&G)
1. Run Naan: Two starts two wins last prep for in-form McEvoy stable. Mallyon keeps the ride. Get back run on type. G3 winner.
2. Long Leaf: Two wins last prep both in good grades beating nice types. Beat the Fillies race favourite in oohood. Go forward fighter.
3. Ollivander: Won last start in an ‘average’ form race but was a goods win the way he did it.
5. Invincible Lad: One run last prep when jumped and led and failed to finish top 8.
6. Bold Type: Two runs last prep. Not bad behind types like Ranier and Nomothaj but was still well beaten. Gelded since.
8. Robe de Fete: First time seeing. Nothing shown of trials. Market Guide.
Comments: Very much untapped horses that we just don’t know enough about. Run Nann looks the real deal while Long leaf will be hard to get past.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Run Naan to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Blue DIamond Preview (Fillies)
2. Crossing the Abbey: Strong winner first up at Flemington holding off Khulaasa and gapping the rest. Can improve onwards here and keeps William and good barrier.
3. Lady Horseowner: Winner when fancied at Moonee Valley last start. Beriman keeps rides.
4. Oohood: Nice lead in trial and just missed when let down like she was going to go straight past them at Sandown but just couldn’t get past Long Leaf who could have already won R2. Respect. Big turn of foot.
5. Downloads: Unseen Hayes runner. Hasn’t been supported.
6. Du Well: First-up runner for Griffiths yard. Always seem to find one to run well at odds and with Maloney onboard this looks the one.
7. Hard to Come By: Mick Sell runner. Not alot known. Ok breeding.
8. Inindeed: Purcell runner with a bit of backing and D Lane onboard. Respect enough on both.
9. Lake District Girl: Two lead in trial runs has been fair to date. Stable keeps on bringing them through to these races at top.
10. Pure Elation: Trial winner for the Snowden yard and looked very professional. Walker keeps rides.
11. Tatiara: D Oliver engaged for Laing stable – has a great strike rate. Horse has been backed.
Comments: Much harder than the colts/geldings race. Pure Elation looks the real deal on trials while Inindeed looks the value in the race. Oohood has the best seen form.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back both Lake District Girl and Inindeed.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Blue Diamond Gala 3yo Fillies Plate
1. Magnesium Rose: Strong winner last start at Caulfield. Stays at distance and goes up in grade. Beat some smart types along the way. At complete top now.
2. Holy Seal: Strong weir runner. First up nice win over a good formline type Booradley. Fairly beaten 5.5L by Nature Strip last start. Respect enough.
3. Smart Coupe: First up after 80 days off. First prep two wins but last prep in G3/Listed grade managed two thirds behind smart types in Sam’s Image/Nature Strip and Jorda/I Am Excited.
4. Lady Magnus: Strong 5th last start at Caulfield when 3-wide no cover the trip and stuck on for 5th pulling up with a fetlock issue. D Oliver takes ride but harder here.
5. Caribbean Pearl: 2nd last start in easier grade when led and grabbed late by Stylish Missile. Has to improve.
6. Kathy’s Spirit: Heavy 9 track winner last start. Previous run in easier at Morphetville only fair. Best form not up to this right now but this is a Weir horse.
7. Soul Star: Maiden winner first up at Yarra Valley. Big jump here needed.
8. Bobby Rocks: Couldn’t win a maiden, can’t see her here.
Comments: Two clear standouts here on form for mine with Smart Coupe and Magnesium Rose. Both map very well today while the main opponent Holy Seal will be working early to slot in with no cover.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Smart Coupe – 6 units @ $2.30. Magnesium Rose – 1.6 units @ $4.80
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap – BM-70
1. Runson: Class runner. Huge run with the 60.5kg up front last start at Sandown when they sped along and only grabbed late by a very good type in Sohool who has won at Flemington since. Can take a sit today, lead or sit outside leader.
2. All Out of Love: First up for Hayes stable today. Last prep winner over 2000m so may be short of best distance today and is a very hard type to find as has a very unique riding style.
3. Epic Moment: Front runner. Very good win at Mornington but then last start at Caulfield on speed didn’t finish off well. Has to improve back to best again but will be in the finish here.
4. Top of the Range: Five runs last prep. Two very good wins on lead in… Queensland Guineas 4th in G2 company.
5. Notio: Got back and ran on well for 3rd behind Runson first beaten 2L. Has to improve but looks well in from the barrier.
7. Bellaria: Won two of last three – last run was on heavy 8. Weir runner but really has to improve.
8. Mai Shiny Choice: Two runs this prep. First up failed big time at Mornington but last start at Geelong. Big jump in class and big ask.
Comments: Top of the Range is an interesting runner with the best performance in the past, but hard to see that being shown first up from the bad barrier. Runson will push forward with Excitement and Epic Moment and the speed will be on. Notio has been backed but is one i have to take on at the price while All Out of Love has the ability to run well here. From the inside barrier i’m expecting Runson to get the better run leading them around and most importantly has the run under the belt over the 1400m with this weight.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Runson – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7.50/$2.20 (3-places with Betfair)
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Michael McMahon Plate F&M BM-84
1. Mamzelle Tess: Got back and ran on very well in a strongly run race where swoopers got them late at course over 1100m. Up in distance here should be suited and comes in off the right type of run.
2. Single Note: Four runs this prep. Failed last start at Flemington. Hasn’t run well at all this prep. No thanks.
3. Overstep: Six runs this prep and failed to show his top class form. Not for me off current form lines.
4. Sharing: Strong win last start at Flemington on a soft 5 track in similar grade. Have to respect that win, will measure up here.
5. Jester Halo: Strong first up win. Wide no cover last start at Flemington and kept on keeping on for 2nd. Better suited here from barrier and well in at weights.
6. Evil Lil: Average at best from last at Caulfield last start. Back to 1400m. Really wants rain.
7. Diapason: Got too far back last start at Flemington and rattled home nicely. Stays at weights and back to a dryer surface from a better barrier. Maps real well.
8. Florida Pearl: Warrnambool 4th first up as favourite. Jump in grade and didn’t go well that run. Has to be taken on.
9. Champagne Cocktail: Two runs this prep. Both weren’t terrible runs at all but well below this level.
Comments: Overstep is the best horse coming into this but hasn’t been producing the runs required. Mamzelle Tess steps up in distance but comes out of a sit sprint home type of race. Jester Halo and Sharing come out of the same race and both ran well, but the improver here for mine is clearly Diapason who had no shot a them until the race was over last start and gets well in here with Michael Dee onboard from a better barrier. Hasn’t been missed in the betting but that’s expected.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7
Strategy: Diapason – 2.5 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.20
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Info Hub Handicap – 3YO BM-78
1. Onehundred Percent: On the quick backup. Failed to fire at Flemington in harder class. Back in grade to home course.
2. Indian Thunder: Strong win two back at Morphetville but failed to fire a noise last start behind Wise Hero and others. Is this horse a 1400m distance horse?
3. Barbeque: Well fancied Godolphin horse. Two back run was solid and then so was last start. Respect enough.
4. Cao Cao: Horrible racing manners. Blinkers off, blinkers first time offside and bubble cheeker first time says a lot. Comes out of a very solid race and maps ideally from the barrier up to 1400m. Looks well suited.
5. Mr Money Bags: Paraded at near top last start at Flemington and ground down a nice type in Crystal Spirit who may just not have been suited by the distance fading late. Good horse and has to be respected.
6. Red White and Blue: Maiden winner first up. Huge jump in class.
7. Necessary: Maiden winner last start over the 1400m. Step up looks well beyond her.
8. Kedleston: Measured up to this grade in the past… finally got the maiden win last start.
Comments: Wide open race with several key chances making it a very hard betting race. Cao Cao is probably the right odds but hard to trust with racing manners like that. Barbeque is probably under the odds. Mr Money Bags stands out on the last start run as the best priced runner but hard to bet here. Indian Thunder and Onehundred Percent are good enough on recent runs. The value in the race is Kedleston who has the class if they fly around to just beat all of these with 52kg.. even the 3-back run was good enough to be in the finish here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 8
Strategy: Kedleston – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$5.20
Caulfield Race 8 – 1400m – John Dillon Stakes
1. Seaburge: Blinkers on. Trialled ‘reasonable’. Didn’t win anything last prep but was 5th in the Toorak behind Tosen Stardom when came from very well back in running. Has won firs tup in past and won at distance. Wouldn’t be shocked.
2. Tshahitsi: Reasonable 4th first up over the unsuitable 1200m and goes well 2nd up and has won 7 of 11 over this distance. Clearly going well enough to win this with a few weeks between runs.
3. Dollar for Dollar: Failed to see out the 1400m first up strangely… will need to improve on that run here at the weights. Has the ability.
4. Royal Rapture: Three runs last prep beaten 2.5L or further. End of prep run wasn’t too bad. Better with a run under his belt but over the right distance.
5. Wyndspelle: First up today and never won firs tup in the past. Comes out of a third over 1600m to end last prep. Goes well over this distance but never won over it or at track. Get back run on type.
6. Petrology: Another get back run on type. Failed to end the prep in the Crystal Mile after 3rd to Tosen Stardom in the Toorak at course over 1600m. Needs speed on. Goes okayu first up. Trial revealed nothing.
7. Chamois Road: Loved the soft 5 track last start back to 1400m at Flemington when sprinted home and went past Dollar for Dollar. Not as well in at the weights here but clearly suited again.
8. Master Reset: Beaten 2.6L last start over the 1700m by Payroll and Jac Bay. Form has stacked up well enough since. Back to 1400m a query as 1600m would be ideal.
9. Pure Pride: Lameness issues this prep. Never suited to soft track last start from well back. May finally be ready today?
10. Kingsguard: Hasn’t measured up to the grade needed to run well here recently. Not for mine.
Comments: One of the hardest betting races on the day, this is a race filled with quality. There is a LOAD of early speed in this race and every horse will get their chance. None of the horses that are already into their preps are coming off runs close to what will be expected to win this race so we are really looking for significant improvement this run or a horse ready to go first up. Tshahitsi has always delivered consistently when the speed is on and from the barrier there is no reason to suggest otherwise with a great run in transit.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Strategy: Tshahitsi to win. Also back Seaburge.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1700m – Ladbrokes Open Handicap
1. Goldstream: 2400m winner last prep in Handicap grade. 2nd to Boom Time in listed grade over 2000m at course. Goes well enough first up.. respectable at this distance.
2. Jacquinot Bay: Very easy win last start at Flemington in a stack and crash type job. Never won at track in 17 starts an issue but always runs well here and has filled a place the past 5 starts and is the only natural leader with Goldstream.
3. Berisha: Never placed first up in the past. Lead in trial suggests more forward than normal. Best over further.
4. Morton’s Folk: Three runs this prep. Flew home from well back the last two starts to just miss. Impressive runs both times. Barrier 2 today should get ideal spot.
5. Liapari: Three runs this prep but well beaten on each occasion. For mine I can’t see how he beats Morton’s Folk today.
6. Widgee Turf: Three wins in a row. Only just got it with top weight last start at Caulfield. 3kg claimer goes on and he gets in very well at the weights. Maps ideally from barrier 1 to sit just off the leaders. Will be taken a long way into the race.
7. Hipparchus: Not the best runner first up. Beat some good types at Flemington two preps back over similar distance but since then has shown no sign of form. Have to take on.
8. Plot the Course: Strong third last start getting back and running on. Others were better on the day and Widgee Turf better weighted. Can run well.
9. Khutulun: Nice return first up 3rd at big odds at Flemington over the 1400m. Step up and back to dryer surface ideal.
10. Sohool: Two wins in a row. Short backup here but continues to run very strong late sectionals off strong speeds. Won’t be much of that today so will be interesting if the horse has the turn of foot off a slower pace.
Comments: Jacquinot Bay should be allowed a similar tempo out front today and will be there all the way once again. Widgee Turf maps perfectly and will get a sit and sprint run if lucky. Morton’s Fork and Sohool both go back but will have the turn of foot required to measure up… Jacquinot Bay has the finishing 600m to put this field away and hold them all off the whole straight if allowed the time I expect out front and he handles hot conditions with ease.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Jacquinot Bay – 1.5 Units @ $5.50/$1.83
