Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 26 January 2017. This is a really interesting race day with just the eight races and on the rail in a position where the inside is fine, but from my walk today, there is a better patch 3/4 out to 7 off around the turn and into the straight so it will be interesting to see just how well the swoopers do today. Wishing everyone a safe and great Australia day. As always I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – Crystal Fountain – 3 units @ $4.80 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 – Grande Rosso – 2 units @ $4.60 to win
Best Value
Caulfield Race 3 – Overshare – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7/$2.30
Caulfield Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9
Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 9, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – Anne Billings Handicap
1. Jennio: Strong win last prep at Sandown over the 1600m distance. Best run this prep was three back at Moonee Valley when 2nd behind Get the Picture. On current form has to improve.
2. Gilago: Firs tup for 200 days at Sandown last start with top weight and ran very well 4th behind Jacqui's Joy. Came from the back that day and will be doing the same here. Has the ability up in distance here to measure up.
3. Falika: Three wins in a row heading into this with two being on soft or heavy tracks. Last start on Heavy was a 7L domination. Two back win was still quite fair considering. Hard horse to judge back on dryer but clearly has some ability.
4. My Sanctuary: Weir stable horse well weighted with a 2kg claim. Two back run when 2nd to Vandancer was more than fair from midfield and Vandancer went onwards and upwards the next start while My Sanctuary was run off her feet with such a fast pace on. May have been flat? Respect the horses previous ability including a 0.2L 3rd behind Big Duke the run before.
5. Ashlee Marie: Poor last start and three back but the run between 3rd was very good when beaten by Oncidum Ruler and Credition. Running up to that form as well as four back will have her in this, but i'm not convinced that is even good enough to win this.
6. Hot Ruby: Last tstart 2nd fairly beaten from just off the speed at Sandown in easier grade. Four back run in easier came home well 2nd but also beaten by easier on that day. Has to find a few level of form.
7. Unfurl: Burrumbeet cup winner two back. Previous start BM-70 grade 7th. Last start in easier grade 0.2L 2nd to Hennybodys. Has to improve on current form.
8. Three Strykes: BM-58 grade winner three back before being defeated with top weight two back but a nice horse in Skulduggery and then last start from last ran home okay in BM-64 grade. Has to improve.
9. Royal Applause: Ran well the past two starts beaten by some very nice types in Skulduggery and Plein Ciel. Previous tow starts 2nd behind Ballybrit. Place looks the obvious for the horse.
10. She's Got Speed: On speed runner. Two back ran very well 2nd to Domino Vitaele beaten 3.25L. Last start in easier grade found a few too good. Hard to suggest for the win.
Comments: Not the easiest way to start the card. My Sanctuary will be sitting midfield and i'm expecting a much better run than last start staying in this grade. Will measure up and looks well suited. Falika clearly is a horse to beat on three wins in a row while Jennio and Gilago also look horses to beat. Royal Applause doesn't win and i'd be taking it on at the price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: My Sanctuary E/W
Caulfield Race 2 – 1400m – Clanbrooke Racing Handicap
2. Kendna: Two back winner at Echuca before last start running a respectable 1400m at Flemington from out the back to run 4th behind Oak Door and Widgee Turf. Respect that run and will go much better here today.
3. Domesticated: 1500m maiden winner last start beating some 'average' types at Mornington. Previous two starts bettered in maiden class. 45 days between runs to train on and is certainly being thrown in the deep end here. Has to have improved significantly for mine. Maps well.
4. Giroux: Been around a while and measured up nicely enough as a 2YO. Three runs this prep saw her get up over this distance last start and run on well to just miss at course and distance. Similar barrier today and will be hitting the line solidly.
5. Pete's Dragon: Pete seems to have got himself a nice racehorse. This daughter of TIme Thief won nicely first up from the front at Cranbourne over 1300m. This is a big step up in class required here to measure up but she will be on speed and not wondering.
6. Dame Vassa: Very average first up and a bit of a surprise winner last start at Yarra Valley. Step up to 1400m looks ideal but even so, will need to show similar improvement to last start to measure up in this grade.
7. Princess of Queens: Maiden winner for the Price stable last prep. Two runs in this prep with a forgive run first up and then a nice enough run 6th over 1300m from out the back last start. D Oliver keeps the ride
8. Summer Wind: Maiden winner last start coming off a respectable 2.75L 8th behind Crystal Fountain the run prior. Obviously has to improve.
9. Intrice's Reward: Maiden winner two back at Bairnsdale before a poor run in CL1 grade last start at Geelong. D Oliver jumps off.
Comments: Wide open race with the scratching of the favourite. Princess of Queens is a horse that shown a fair bit of fight, but it's Giroux that i can't go past.
Confidence: 65%
Strategy: Giroux to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preview (C&G)
1. Azazel: Looked a nice horse last prep winning first up over 1000m on soft before a respectable 4th down the straight behind Cao Coa and Aspect. Trailled nicely heading in and McEvoy stable is going well currently.
2. Wait for No One: Won first up last prep at course and distance from on speed in a nice time. Beat Miss Wahoo and Spoils that day. Ran 3rd behind Aspect and Cao Cao the next start before spell. Another solid horse to respect here.
3. Property: Well backed 2nd pick last start at course over 1100m when fairly beaten by Catchy. Obviously has ability but the step back to 1000m and against these horses… he has to improve.
4. Beaverbrook: Stable continues to be under-estimated due to unseen trials with horses in these races. Booking of Craig Newitt is a big negative for me in this race, but the jump out run showed me this is a horse with talent to burn. Respect.
5. Duan Zhixing: Trial winner heading into this today, but is very large odds based on that trial, breeding and trainer.
6. Ganzfeld: Godolphin runner. Double figure odds and has been a drifter since opening markets. Trial was only fair… makes you feel the 1000m is simply too short for today.
7. Indernile: 'Unseen' Moloney runner bred out of Street Boss. Not here just for a walk in the park today. Had a jump out at Caulfield on the 17th when got away well, held a position off the leaders and finished off strongly without being overly impressive. Not for me here.
8. Overshare: This is the horses second prep for the stable. Had two solid jump outs back in October when third and second. Had a jump out at Flemington on the 13th of Jan where jumping clearly the best and leading all the way without being let go. Well put together horse and looks to be ready to fire here.
9. Sheer Madness: Trialled behind Indernile. Didn't show a lot to my eye… but has been backed in early in the markets at odds.
10. Vibrato: 'Unseen' Griffiths runner. The son of Your Song hasn't had any official trials but has jumped out well behind the other Griffiths runner. Found the line solidly but looks to need the run here for mine on what i've seen.
Comments: It's going to be interesting to see how Azazel and Wait for No One have developed and pushed on here today. Property isn't a top class horse and I feel we may just see something with a lot of talent come out of this race. At the prices, Overshare stands out for me like a sore thump with what I believe has been the correct lead in prep for education and the proper trials for a 1000m run. From barrier 3, Overshare will jump well, be on speed and be hard to get past … exactly the formula you want for a 2YO race of this kind.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Overshare – 1 unit Each-Way @ $7/$2.30
Caulfield Race 4 – 1000m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Preview (Fillies)
1. Limestone: Sensational win last start down the straight with the tempo on and did it the tough way. Perfect barrier today to push to an on speed position for an uninterrupted run. Big chance.
2. Tulip: Got back and ran on super first up at Moonee Valley when smashed a lesser class grade of race. Word all around is that she has trained on significant since and may very well be better than Catchy! Would need to jump better today and be closer to the speed to be considered a big chance.
3. Miss Wahoo: Had her chances first up and was fairly beaten by Limestone down the Flemington straight. Has placed at this track previously. Certainly a nice type but not a top pick to win. Place only.
4. Spoils: Close 2nd to Wait For No One last prep. Oliver jumps on today from barrier 8. Has ability on what we have seen, but has to step up to match it with the top two in the market today.
5. Zarpoya: Griffiths runner that ran well first up for a 3rd place in easier grade. Big step up in this and has to have improved lengths.
6. Straviera: Very poor first up last prep and hasn't been seen in nearly three months. Will need to have found lengths today to be a chance.
7. Blondie: Nice enough jump out at Caulfield leading throughout. Will need to work hard to get over from this gate today and will need to be very good to measure up.
8. Chateau Griffo: Unplaced in a jump out behind No Alibi. Jumped nicely and was not pushed along solidly like the stablemate. Did respond when questions were asked but wasn't a very solid hitout.
9. Cherief's Choice: Second in a jump out. Was out of the stalls okay without being super fast. Pushed along wide all the way and found the line solidly. Wanted to see a bit more late tan I saw.
10. No Alibi: Ran 2nd in a jump out pushed out to the line over 800m and kept finding. Negative was how the horse took a while to get going though.
11. Squaw Peak: Pushed out in her trial at Flemington and a horse has come out of that jump out and won since. Looks well bred.
12. Unwise: Solid enough in her only trial but didn't show me enough to suggest a win here.
Comments: The market has this one right in terms of the two clear favourites being Limestone and Tulip. The only way I could play here would be to back one and saver the other based on speed maps.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Back Limestone and saver bet Tulip.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1700m – Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Final
1. Refulgent: Very good win two back at the bool but there were a few hard luck stories on the day. Fairly beaten last time out by Burning Front and is on a short backup into a much easier race. Respect here.
2. Kapour: Every chance first up when didn't run a bad race third at all when beaten 3.8L behind Religify in a hot enough time run on the day. Has to improve but has the ability to go close.
3. The Bowler: Hard horse to catch. Hasn't won the last two preps and never at this track from 8 runs. Very poor last start. Two back run means he has to improve onwards here.
4. Lucky Paddy: Two back winner at the bool before unlucky blocked for runs behind Refulgent last start. Much better weighted here and three back run backs up the form so far.
5. Our Bottino: Camperdown 3.5L winner last start but did beat a nice horse on the day. Previous run beaten course over 1400m by Bradman. Goes well over this distance.
6. Dodging Bullets: Hugely unlucky last start blocked for runs at the bool behind Refulgent. Keeps the same weight today compared to others in the race as a big negative.
7. Hell on Earth: Ran home well two back and won four back. Obviously been running in easier races the past few races but did win 0.6L 4th to Refulgent at Moonee Valley 8 runs back and is 0.5kg better off today. On his best, he actually is a big chance here.
Comments: Very tough race to get involved in. Lucky Paddy is the horse weighted to win and has to be the top pick.
Confidence: 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Lucky Paddy to win
Caulfield Race 6 – 1600m – Moorookyle Park Thoroughbred Stud Handicap
1. First Approval: Snowden stable runner. They don't send them down here to lose. 1400m up to 1600m today after a soft track disappointment at Warwick Farm. Previous runs suggest he is up to the mark.
2. Hard Promise: Lightly raced colt. Won two in a row and going up slowly in the distances. Certainly need to be good to win very well like he did at Cranbourne over the 1000m and to be able to go up within 25 days to a 1600m win.
3. Ontoff Ofthe World: Benalla winner in BM-58 last start. Failed to measure up at 3YO levels the previous two runs. Has some ability.
4. Alma's Rossa: Went close the past two starts at Caulfield and Sandown over the 1400m and the step up to 1600m today looks ideal. D Oliver takes the ride from the ideal barrier 5.
5. Astley: Stable like this guys chances today stepping up to 1600m. Ran nicely to win his maiden first up before a respectable 3rd off the slow pace put on out front at Sandown.
6. Charlie Cheval: Well backed first up and won accordingly in a 8 horse maiden at Sandown. up to 1600m here and clearly has to improve.
7. Farson: Waterhouse runner and we know she is down here as she was at the tennis yesterday! Kilmore winner two back and then ran quite well over racing for 4th at Sandown. Step back to 3YO grade and has ability jumping up to 1600m.
8. Congressional: Ran horrible first up. Looked to have ability last prep but I just can't have him and even D Oliver jumped off.
9. Parallel World: Maiden winner first up beating Ridgway in average time. Clearly has to improve here.
Comments: I can't see why Alma's Rossa can't go one better here today and is the top pick from a nice barrier. Respect Hard Promise and First Approval while Farson is a big questionmark in the race.
Confidence: 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Strategy: Alma's Rossa to win.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – John Dillon Stakes
1. Real Love: First up last prep over 1600m in WFA-G2 ran 2L 2nd off Awesome Rock who is now a Group 1 winner. Won a Group 3 last prep also. Not a track she has ever performed well at is the concern, but at the weights, she has to be respected here.
2. Humidor: New Zealand import. Only run last prep was well beaten in Group 1 class at Flemington over 1600m and wasn't well backed on the day. WFA-G1 2nd over 2040m in New Zealand on the record and Group 3 winner as a 3YO over 2000m+. Needs further… but has been backed.
3. Grande Rosso: Consistent horse that is going from strength to strength this prep. Won very well three back beating Burning Front and won very well last start at Flemington. Ignore two back when not suited over 1200m. Well weighted.
4. Tonopah: Two runs this prep and very well beaten on both attempts. Needs another run today on what we have seen.
5. Cavaloce: Group 3 second last start at Flemington over the 1200m distance. Questionable if this horse is better over the 1400m for mine… but this does look a winnable race for her. Respect.
7. Master Reset: First up after 2 months spelling. Goes well first up and wouldn't have been out of training too long. Ran some very strong races last prep including a Moonee Valley win over Rageese and a strong Mornington 3.3L win after that. Best over slightly further.
8. Duke of Brunswick: Jumped out well heading into this off a respectable 4th first up. Up to a more suitable distance and likes this track, but he needs to have trained on to have a chance to get past Grande Rosso here.
9. Divine Mr Artie: Very disappointing the past two starts, especially last start at Flemington. Back to Caulfield where he is better suited… but it's hard to have him today after the last start run.
Comments: Need to play this race wide in the Quaddie but I've got my eye on Grande Rosso at the prices available while Real Love is the value of the day.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9
Strategy: Grande Rosso – 2 units @ $4.60 to win
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Mypunter.com Plate
2. Roman Fizz: Won three of last four races and stays in the same grade of race at the same distance today. Gets in well enough again at the weights. Respect from on speed.
3. Ashdam: Hasn't won in the city in a very long time. Shown nothing the last two runs. Best is certainly over further.
4. Stellar Collision: Horrible last start. Two previous starts fairly beaten. Not the same horse as previous preps. Hard to have for mine at weights.
5. Boomwaa: Poor first up. Poor only run last prep and didn't win at all the previous two preps so it's certainly hard to suggest him today. Now with all that out of the way, the run three preps back 2nd to Duibio down the 1200m would be more than enough to win this.
6. Chiavari: Ran nicely first up behind Lyuba but has failed to impress the next two runs since. I'm not convinced she is going well enough to beat all these today.
7. Magicus: Really hard horse to catch! Beaten favourite last prep three runs in a row before they started taking him on. Last win was over 1200m on a soft track. Has ability but really tough to rate.
8. Armada: Well beaten all runs this prep. One runner i have to just simply take on.
9. Domesday Warrior: Out the back and ran on well last start down the straight behind Rocket Tommy. Good run three back also. Going well enough to win here.
10. Jalan Jalan: Trialed very well coming into this today coming off some really bad runs last prep. Previous prep suggests she is more than good enough to win this. Better rider on today.
11. Rich Charm: Huge disappointment last start 4th. Had every chance there. A little more tempo today may suit but even so i'm not convinced here.
Comments: Tough ask this race. Have to go with winning form in Roman Fizz while Jalan Jalan trailed like a winner.
Confidence: 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Back both Roman Fizz and Jalan Jalan.
