Merry Christmas and welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 26 December 2017. We got away from Moonee Valley with a load of profit on Saturday which was pleasing to see after treading water for the past month with a few ups and downs. With just 8 races on the card this Tuesday, the Boxing Day races at Caulfield are expected to be strong races – but I feel there are a few weaker ones that we can pick at all day as the rail returns from the 12m to the 6m position. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 – My Psychiatrist – 5 units @ $3.60 to win
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Master Reset – 2 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$1.95
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 7 – Keen Array – 2 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.25
Value Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – Electric Fusion – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$8.00
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 14, 15, 19
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1800m – Allan Wicks Handicap
1. Gold Fields: Won 2 of last 5 races. Failed to go close last start in the Wodonga Cup from off the speed. Best is clearly good enough but you do have to be worried about the last start run and any untold issues. Expect to lead today instead of going back.
2. Andrea Mantegna: Hasn’t been able to win the past 5 starts for the Weir stable. Failed to fire and ran poorly last start at Bendigo coming off a Cup 2nd at Hamilton the run prior. Been all over the shop with this horse distance wise and 1800m looks ideal enough.
3. Electric Fusion: Scratched from the weekend to find an easier race here and he looks up to his neck in this race. Looks ideally placed with a short break between runs and maps perfectly with a sit.
4. Hot Ruby: Scratched from the race on the weekend so she can position close to the speed in a small field. Been running well in harder grades of races recently. Disappointed last start. Best is good enough.
5. Hunamosa: BM-70 winner two back at Kyneton and then last start fairly beaten by Parallel World at Pakenham on a wetter surface. Claim has him well in at weights.
6. Netherfield: Looked the real deal the past few preps over distances but best clearly over 2000m+. Short of that today and steps up from Bm-64 win to 1800m in this grade.
Comments: Surprised, even shocked to see Netherfield put up as favourite here today. This horse is 3rd up so while he is on the way up in his prep, he didn’t exactly beat much last start at Werribee to win a BM-64 on his way. Most importantly, he didn’t break the clock last start at all and he has to improve SIGNIFICANTLY to win this. I think the market has Electric Fusion completely wrong here in a race where Gold Fields is the only pace angle and is expected to not push the pace along. Electric Fusion has a 33.11 final 600m on record from a run at Flemington early on in the prep where they didn’t run it along fast early or mid. A repeat of that simply wins this. A run close to that goes well here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Electric Fusion – 1 unit Each-Way @ $21/$8.00
Caulfield Race 2 – 2400m – Joe Brown Plate
1. Goodwood Zodiac: Go forward type who let at a strong tempo last start in the Pakenham Cup when well backed and failed to fire. Previous run was decent enough to respect.
2. Get the Picture: Coming off a lameness at Pakenham last start. Good win previous start at Morphetville but hard to have off lameness.
3. My Psychiatrist: Two back beaten in BM70 grade and then last start went to another level over the 2420m when covered a load of ground and looked perfect in the yard when 2nd to Etah James. Can go one better here.
4. Serenade the Stars: Looked horrible in the yard and folded like a cheap suit on the track as favouyrite last start. This is a horse that hasn’t looked right all prep and it almost feels like the horse needs a spell. Tongue Tie on but even with that i’m finding it hard to suggest this horse.
5. Casta: Not suited last start by the slow tempo but finished off strongly for a decent enough 2nd. This may be stronger than last start but even so he is going well enough to consider.
6. The Mighty Jrod: Stays at 2400m but well up in grade here. Low weight but even so he had every chance last start and was run down late. Hard to suggest.
7. Verreaux: Who? BM-58 grade winner four runs back and beaten 4L+ the past 3 meets. No.
8. My Nikita: Not the worst run at all last start over 2040m at Moonee Valley. Steps up in grade and distance. Win wouldn’t be a complete shock from this yard… was a listed grade 2000m winner in NZ.
9. Grassini: 3000m back to 2400m here. Last win was BM-64 grade and has been competing in BM-52s. Actually wasn’t the worst run last start over 3000m. Needs further.
Comments: They haven’t missed My Psychiatrist here and the horse goes on top. The price is the only query. Goodwood Zodiac’s best is better than these so represents value while Casta could also offer up a very good run with more speed on. My Psychiatrist has the run prior at this course and distance on the record this prep and is really well weighted. Most importantly, maps perfectly as well.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: My Psychiatrist – 5 units @ $3.60 to win
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – Dennis Hanrahan Handicap
2. Fudged: Won two in a row in similar grade before running 3rd in harder grade and failing last start. May have trained off? Was at peak in yard two back.
3. Reigning in Paris: Finally found a win at Pakenham on Synthetic two back. Failed to get closer than 4th last start and needs to improve here.
4. Stormy Shore: Very nice win two back in harder company at Pakenham before last start failing from out back off a slow tempo. May not have handled the wet.
5. Rising Hope: Bendigo winner in nice fashion last start over 1600m. Chop King JNR onboard claiming two has her well in this.
6. Tranquil Miss: Freshened up after defeating Stormy Shore at Sale last start. Best is obviously good enough to measure up.
7. Plus Effronte: Beaten 1.4L 6th in this class last start at Bendigo off a hot tempo coming off a similar class win at Donald. Up in distance here a massive query.
8. Addison: Ended last prep with two wins. First up failed to fire. Query over the horse.. need to see in yard.
10. Flo Fo: 6 runs this prep. Won first up. Wasn’t a bad run last start but need to run better here.
11. River Goddess: Second up today. A nice type. Good enough run first up to go well here.
12. So Splendid: Massive disappointment last start at Moonee Valley. Presented very well.
13. Winkelmann: Got back and ran on well last start 2nd to Royal Applause. Has ability.
14. Elegantly Wasted: FM-58 winner two back at Mornington. Didn’t measure up well enough last start but three back run was ok.
15. Teoflyte: BM-58 6th last start. Big step up.
Comments: This is an almost impossible race to figure out. The best last start run of a horse coming into this race is only better than 2 of these horses personal bests, suggesting there is a load of potential on the table. Rising Hope is a prime example of that coming in with the 2nd best last 500m but from a race that was run genuinely enough.
Confidence 35%
Strategy: Rising Hope E/W
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Frank O’Brien Handicap
1. Cao Cao: Always had ability but his nuts have got in the way. Gelded. 3kg claimer onboard. Barrier the issue for a good run.
2. Prevailing Winds: Mornington BM-64 winner by 5L when led them around at a solid tempo and bolted away. Looks the real deal regardless of company seen in last start. Great barrier drawn.
3. American Genius: Bendigo BM-64 winner over some average types first up. Has failed to meausre up to this type of race grade in the past but has ability and breeding may just mean neeeded to mature more.
4. Onehundred Percent: CL1 winner heading into this. Was a Handicap race at Echuca last prep as a 2YO. Blinkers on.
5. Peruggia: Weir runner Williams onboard. 2YO Handicap winner last prep.. may be wanting further? Good enough and great barrier.
6. Elite Legacy: 2YO Handicap winner at Sandown last prep. First up run was a nice run 3rd to Bel Sonic. Can be followed and can run well here.
7. Sirius Black: Four trials on lead in to Maiden win at Tatura. Two trials were this prep and clearly he is well into his prep already based on what we saw. Big jump in class. Meech on.
8. Spirit of Aquada: Got back ran on very well for 2nd behind Bel Sonic last start. 2kg claimer on and well in at weights.
9. Star Hills: Donald maiden winner last prep. Failed first up.
10. Flying Frog: Tatura trial winner on lead in. Maiden winner last prep. Big testing material this.
11. Valente: Laing runner who was only fair first up. Maiden winer previous prep. Looks an okay type.
12. Streets of Avalon: Bairnsdale winner last start. Muich harder this.
13. See Me Exceed: Bairnsdale maiden winner over 1000m first up. Spelled and comes back here trying to measure up.
14. Hampton Classic: Maiden winner at Terang and time wasn’t bad fort a soft track. See how she measures up.
Comments: Spirit of Aquada with the Bel Sonic form comes out of a very strong race that will be a strong guideline this prep – and down to 54.5kg is very well weighted. Peruggia and Prevailing Winds come into the race with the other best form lines while American Genius has a peak run from early 2016 that would blow these away – horse hasn’t gone close the past year. One of the hardest races of the day.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Back both Spirit of Aquada and Peruggia.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Ken Sturt Handicap – F-BM-70
1. Our Sevira: Strong win last start at Moonee Valley at big odds. Big turn around in form. 3kg claimer on now.
2. Royal Fashion: Very nice horse. First up ran well in a hot race only beaten by a very good type in Brugal Reward. Ignore last start at Moprhetville. Rates very well back in this grade today. Barrier icing on the cake. Claimer on.
3. Adalita: Well beaten last 3 starts. Won in easier previous start. Hard to have.
4. Meridian Star: Led them around last start at Morphetville at a hot tempo and ran well only just claimed late. Push forward from wide.
5. Sharing: Nice type forgive run last start. Has to be considered a chance.
6. Jocasta: Ran very well first up ridden for luck over 955m. Stays at class but up in distance. Looks a nice type.
7. Love in the City: Won twice this prep in easier grades. Went up to 1700m then last start back to 1200m again where best suited. Ran well. Barrier issue here.
8. Facts: Four runs last prep only won first up in easier than this. Need to be good here. Goes well first up.
9. Savaju: Five runs this prep. Best run three back was a good run behind Nights Watch and beat home Another Coldie. Two back forgive run but last start poor.
10. Streets of Liberty: Weir runner Brown onboard. Two runs after a freshen up. Got home ok last start but need to improve on that.
11. Alvilda: 955m 5th first up. Never measured up to this grade so has to reach a peak.
12. Alaskan Sun: Bm-64 grade third last start fairly beaten from out back. If begins better today can go well.
13. Bella Martini: Hawkes runner with large ability. Won very well from on speed last start. Can keep going forward and upwards.
14. Go Gracey: Fairly beaten last start at Mornington. Previous runs only fair. Has some ability but needs to improve.
15. Ponte Roma: Always had ability but shown nothing this prep. Have to just take on.
16. Hurry Harriet: First up here. Maiden winner last prep.
17. Sister Kitty Mac: Won well two back and then close 2nd last start. Respect at weights with 3kg claim.
Comments: Wide open race. Big believer in Royal Fashion but also believe Bella Martini may just turn into a very good sprinter.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 13
Strategy: Back Bella Martini and Royal Fashion
Caulfield Race 6 – 1700m – Thebigscreencompany.com.au Lord Stakes
1. Master of Arts: First up for nearly a year, he got a G3 last prep over 2600m. At these distances he is very much short of his best but he can clearly still win races. 60k does make it hard first up.
2. Payroll: Flew home two back at Flemington and then sat closer to the speed to win at Sandown a race Kidmenever was a moral beaten in due to jumping poorly. That being said, they gaped the rest by 3.8L. Certainly flying and 38 days off can only help. Oliver keeps the ride. Tricky map though not sure can sit further forward today without getting trapped on fence?
3. Sadler’s Lake: Strong trial between runs. This horse has been looking great in the yard and can improve on previous runs. Dunn onboard a key booking. Watch for the money to come.
4. Master Reset: Been looking well in the yard and got away with reasonable early sectionals out front last start at Pakenham. Will only be better for that run and maps to lead with Our Bottino. Hard to get past.
5. Jacquinot Bay: Had his chances last start and found one well too good. Can run well again mapping perfectly.
6. Our Bottino: Had his chances last start and while the soft track may have affected his chances, he goes well on it. Needs to run along faster here.
7. Coldstone: Ran home very well on an unsuitable surface at Pakenham and is building well into his prep. Could be near fit enough to win now back to dryer. Good barrier for the right run.
8. Darabad: Could lead and push them along here or just run a normal pace? 2500m back to 1700m.
9. Trinity Hill: Not the worst run third at Sandown last start. Not sure she is this grade.
Comments: Looks three main chances in this one. Master Reset has finally started to peak this prep and will be very hard to get past from out front. Payroll and Master Reset come off similar last start run ratings, but what will be most interesting is if Payroll can get it done from out the back with speed on throughout which is an unknown for mine. Coldstone is the horse with big improvement to come this prep that can improve here and feature from a charmed run throughout.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7
Strategy: Master Reset – 2 units Each-Way @ $5.50/$1.95
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Christmas Stakes
1. Keen Array: Freshened up coming off a disappointing 6th when missed the start and was held up for runs at critical stages at Sandown last start. Back to a dryer surface, goes very well at track and maps perfectly from the barrier.
2. Thermal Current: Nice run last start at Caulfield when flew home but found two better including Danuki. Up to 1200m no knock and continues to run well this prep, potentially at his very best ever. Will be wide throughout but get cover.
3. Tried and Tired: Handicap win over Jungle Edge last start and there was no surprise with the win as this is a horse that loves pressure on from start to finish and runs his best races with that. Big ask here but gets in well at weights again.
4. Merriest: Goes very well first up and loves this track. Best runs in the past though have been over 1400m so query here.
5. Oak Door: Blinkers on. Had two trials on lead in this prep and looks ready to fire here. Goes well at track and at distance. Looks set for this by the stable.
6. Stellar Collision: Failed to fire first up when well backed 2nd fav at Pakenham. Hasn’t won since March. Respect the SP. Never won at track.
7. Lucky Liberty: Ok enough trial on lead in after 220m days off. Measured up to this grade in the past.
8. Rock Forthe Ladies: Always been a nice type and you can tell the team like this horse, but i’m not convinced that this horse is top quality. Take on. Meech booking interesting.
9. Demonstrate: New stable after being sold by Godolphin. Failed to get close two previous runs this prep and had a freshen up and trial since. Have to query just how much work goes into a horse that is going to the sales in previous two weeks. Take on.
10. Kirani: Scored a win at Bairnsdale! Has always been a nice type but looks well outclassed here.
Comments: Can’t believe the prices put up for Lucky Liberty or Merriest here. Both well under the odds. Keen Array has been lumped a heavy weight rightfully and is the horse to beat. Oak Door has put up the figures required in the past to lead them around here and win. Thermal Current is running as his absolute best and can clearly measure up. At Odds, I wouldn’t be dismissing the chances of Kirani either. I’d be looking to place lay Demonstrate here heavily based on the sale. Overall, Keen Array represents great value here each-way – can’t see the horse missing a place without issues.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 10
Strategy: Keen Array – 2 units Each-Way @ $6.50/$2.25.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – BM-70
1. Making Mayhem: Returned from Injury. First up run well beaten. Needs further.
2. Royalic: Hayes runner with a 3kg claimer. Won well in this class last start at Wangaratta. Respect.
3. Squeaky Squirrel: Always been a horse i’ve had time for. Back in grade first up and always goes well first up and over these distances. Last prep ran 5th at course and distance in harder. Has to be considered.
5. Dane Thunder: First up after failing to record a victory last prep. Did run a 3rd over 1400m late in prep at Caulfield. Better over further.
6. Lauchetti: First up today. Bm-70 winner last prep at Sandown so has gone to the right level in the past. Been a long spell. 3kg claimer on today.
7. Wilde Gem: Last prep winner over 1000m iun BM-70 at Pakenham and takes a step up here. Nice type.
8. Liberty Song: Failed to run out the race last start at Moonee Valley over the 1200m and steps back to 1100m. May just need the 955m now? Best in past clearly good enough having run 2nd here in 3YO Handicap behind Run Gypsy Run.
9. Domesday Warrior: 278 days between runs. Last prep measured up well enough in these grades including a 3rd at Flemington.
10. Tigidig Tigidig: Loves a second. Big step up in grade here but obviously always there or there abouts over these distances.
11. Bord de Gain: Freshened up. First up really good 3rd at Flemington but went backwards since.
12. Chavuma: First up and well up in grade. Hard to suggest here for this non-winner.
13. Reine Happy: Won at Corowa in BM-64 three back… big jump in class this. Hard to suggest a place.
14. Terindah: Nice first up run 3rd behind Dam ready and Toorak Cowboy. Always looked the part up in this grade.
15. Believing: Won just 1 from last 10 and hasn’t won recently. Didn’t mind the run first up when got back and stormed home though. Barrier hurts.
16. Pravro: Going well enough to be considered. Concussion plates off and bar plates on. Can only go better now but clearly has to improve.
17. Heza Magic Man: First up. Won in BM-64 grade last prep.
19. Written in Stone: Two unlucky runs on the lead in. Obviously good enough but like a few here, will need luck. Barrier helps position well enough and jockey change a bonus.
20. O’lonhro Bay: Hard to see, last win in BM-58.
Comments: Widest quaddie race of the day. This is a real lottery race. Bord de Gain is heavy unders as favourite. Believing will need luck to storm home from back there but is a bloody good horse. Liberty Song actually maps for a great run throughout and is worth one last throw at the stumps at these odds.
Confidence 50%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 14, 15, 19
Strategy: Liberty Song E/W
