Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield on Blue Diamond Day!
Tricky day with loads of wind around and a changing direction about 3 races into the card. Expect on-speed to be the place to be later in the day with the wind favouring and track drying up with the wind.
Best Bets
Caulfield R8 Snitty Kitty 1X3
Caulfield R1 Holmesman 0.5×1.5
Caulfield R6 Lord of the Sky 0.5×1.5
Caulfield Race 1 – 2000m – Ladbrokes Mornington Cup Prelude – Listed
1. Almandin: Go back on instructions today ridden as a barrier trial by all reports. Better things to come.
2. Homesman: Gelded. Group 3 winner at the Curragh with Ryan Moore onboard. Went to Belmont to a Group 1 and ran a strong 3rd on the Firm track over the 2000m. Don’t be shocked if wins here.
3. Cismontane: Baster onboard – Won the Lexus. Shortest Distance this horse has seen in a long time. Need to be good and forward to beat these.
4. Gallic Chieftain: Went through the line strongly first up. Stays around the 2000m distance here. Better over slightly further? This is a tough ask even so.
5. Goldstream: Well backed last start – didn’t get the pace required when decided to run the horse for a sit. Has the ability. Speed will suit.
6. Self Sense: Two runs this prep and not shown a huge amount. Not convinced suited here by tempo.
7. Angelology: Won trial on lead in. Last start run well beaten by Floral Fever. Needs further over jumps.
8. Golden Mane: Never gone better than he is going this prep. Kah onboard – will love the tempo. Has to prove he is good enough.
9. Bedford: Class animal. Very good times two back at Caulfield when winning very well by 6 lengths and had no right to win last start in easier class than this when they went much slower. Speed will be on here. Suited.
10. Adirondack: Three runs this prep and failed to fire on all occasions. Place would shock based on best in past.
Expected Speed: Faster than benchmark first two thirds and a genuine staying test home ridden out from the 600m.
Most favoured horses: Homesman, Bedford, Almandin, Goldstream
Least favoured horses: Gallic Chieftain, Golden Mane
Strategy: Homesman 1×3 ratio
Caulfield Race 2 – 1800m – Heritage Finance Caulfield Autumn Classic – Group 2
1. Astoria: Awkward barrier and map – Ran a strong 3rd first up behind Holy Snow and ready to roll here.
3. Mr So and So: Good 2nd last start at course over 1400m behind Holy Snow. Questionable at distance but on breeding should get it.
4. Amanito: Massive jump in class. Nice runs in Sydney but huge jump here.
5. Valiant Spirit: Good lead in run 2nd to Peruggia. Has the ability to run a nice race.
6. Belfast: Three runs in.. fairly beaten by nice type last start. Can improve and needs to.
7. Wetakemanhattan: Won two from three this prep. Steps up in distance again. Has run times.
8. Rellson: This horse in the past has produced big runs in Group 3 class in the past. First up good run in – B Melham onboard – much better suited here.
9. Armed and Ready: Strong run last start behind Peruggia but was no match – has to improve.
10. Zhang Fei: Nice enough run on lead in when hit the line strongly and looks suited up in distance again – wants more speed.
11. Won Won Too: Hasn’t shown much at all on lead in. One to take on here.
12. Think Positive: Two runs on lead in. Got the maiden away but hard to suggest.
13. Tagreeda: Strong 3rd behind Twitchy Frank two back and then disappointed 4th last start. Can improve. Suited on speed.
14. Blue Jay Way: Not the worst type here but clearly has to improve on previous runs.
Expected Speed: Can’t see them going breakneck speed early – will be a moderate tempo throughout and speed on final 600m.
Most favoured horses: Tagreeda, Rellson
Least favoured horses: Mr So and So, Armed and Ready
Strategy: Tagreeda 1×3 ratio
Caulfield Race 3 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Zeditave Stakes – Group 3
1. Overshare: Will roll along from outside gate – ran a blinder last start behind Cliff’s Edge and will have to do it the tough way here – may just be good enough?
2. Prevailing Winds: Strong run last start over 1400m led them around breakneck speed. Step back to 1200m IDEAL
3. Wild Heart: Strong form up north and has the ability to measure up here if runs a repeat of last start.
4. Piracy: Stable is flying. Two lead in trials fair. Listed 2nd on record last prep – best super competitive.
5. Albumin: First up and had trials on lead in. Class 1 win and that was it last prep but did run well in a Group 2. Best would go well here.
6. I Did It Again: Strong on speed run first up but found a few too good. Might get caught wide but might get an easier tempo today?
7. Plutocracy: Won’t get every chance out front like a few other attempts here. First up fairly beaten too far back. Big jump in class.
8. Streets of Avalon: Goes well enough – poor last start. Need to improve.
9. Poseidon’s Pool: Stable always had time for this horse. Super poor first up. On ability – Group 3 3rd, good place price.
Expected Speed: Strong early tempo – medium middle – strong late.
Most favoured horses: Overshare, I Did It Again, Albumin, Prevailing Winds
Least favoured horses: Streets of Avalon, Wild Heart, Plutocracy
Strategy: Overshare to win
Caulfield Race 4 – 1400m – Ladbrokes Angus Armanasco Stakes – Group 2
1. Counterplay: Sit midfield type. Solid first up run at Morpehtville over 1300m and takes step up here ot harder class. Goes very well 2nd up and at these distances.
2. Smart Coupe: Missed start at Caulfield last start and would have gone close in the G3. Up to Group 2 but doesn’t look harder. Has the class.
3. Watchmespin: Trialled fairly on lead in. Last prep around the mark needed to measure up here.
4. Miss Wahoo: Nice enough type 36 days between runs. Hasn’t run required times this prep but can improve and past results suggest can win here.
5. Super Snob: Well back in grade last start to get a win. Previous runs not bad but big jump here.
6. Summer Sham: Well backed last start and didn’t break the clock. Good enough to run well.
7. Earth Angel: Under-done in yard last start and well suited. Paris Rock gone ok since but has to improve.
8. See Me Exceed: Got a very reasonable strong run last start ridden for luck and found it running 3rd. More to come in yard.
9. Ocean Deep: Nice enough lead in win at Sandown before spell. Has to go to a new level.
10. Palazzo Vecchio: Trialled fairly on lead in. Previous prep 4.8L winner in easier. Has ability.
11. Miss Oklahoma: Fairly beaten behind Summer Sham last start. Others preferred.
Expected Speed: Moderate to above early. Moderate to strong middle and late.
Most favoured horses: See Me Exceed, Earth Angel, Smart Coupe
Least favoured horses: Ocean Deep, Miss Wahoo
Strategy: See Me Exceed 1×3 ratio
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Premier Signs Mannerism Stakes – Group 3
1. Silent Sedition: Won this race last year. Went like a busted in comparison first up and blinkers go on. Needs to be on speed to win today.
2. Montoya’s Secret: Will run a race this prep but this doesn’t look the distance for it. Wouldn’t be shocked if runs well.
3. Flying Jess: Was no statitical chance last start when ran home well enough over the 1200m. Up to 1400m today and looks well suited. Big odds.
4. Wheal Leisure: Strange distance to resume at. Probably best staying horse in race but clearly needs further than this.
5. Exocet: First up today. Didn’t go well at all last prep in Group class. Previous prep measured up best over 2000m.
6. Flippant: Nice type just missed last start – was at top the past two runs though so can the horse improve again here up to 1400m? Past runs suggest not?
7. Samovare: Will be ready to run a good race firs tup but last prep at Flemington was no where near top in yard and took a few runs and over 1600m to get a win.
9. Jester Halo: Not suited by slow tempo last start in Group 1 class. Back to this grade and speed will be on. Respect here.
Expected Speed: Moderate to above average speed early – moderate middle – strong late.
Most favoured horses: Flying Jess, Jester Halo, Flippant
Least favoured horses: Samovare, Exocet, Wheal Leisure
Strategy: Back both Flying Jess and Jester Halo
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – italktravel Futurity Stakes – Group 1
1. Tosen Stardom: Was well enough last start to run well and didn’t do much. Alot of stable talk about horse being behind in work and now skipping main target next month. Needs to improve.
2. Humidor: A number of setbacks in training according to stable. Best runs have always been 1600+ so 1400m first up looks a tad short.
3. Brave Smash: Is this horse going well enough? Improved significantly last start in the Orr and wants the speed on here. Maps awkwardly but with luck gets in 3-4 back on the outside. Has the ability.
4. Lord of the Sky: Massive lead in trial – horse just has to get the true 1400m to be a big chance here. Just beaten in the Orr after missing start. Looks the main speed in race.
5. Sovreign Nation: No real guide from lead in trial. Group 1 2nd over 1600m on record and ran 2.2L 4th in the Sir Rupert CLarke last prep at course and distance. This is a step up in grade even from that. Goes well first up and can run Group 1 times.
6. Mr Sneaky: Had the chances first and second up and has been forward all prep. Needs to improve again and push forward from the barrier to gain a more forward position here to win.
7. Wyndspelle: Fairly beaten both starts this prep. Happy to suggest this horse is a grade below this class.
8. Snitzson: Best in the past is good enough to shake for a place, but has in Group class always been a length or two behind a win. Solid booking and could try and push forward today, but first up will need to be at top to compete.
9. Shillelagh: Just not suited by tempo last start in the Orr off two average trials. Clearly needed the run and will have improved, but could still be one run short? Looks to be aimed at the Autumn carnival?
10. Mighty Boss: Blocked for runs first up in the Orr when running well. Unproven up to this grade of race for mine and one i’m just going to have to take on.
11. Showtime: Ridden quieter last start at Rosehill and didn’t get pace on to suit. Still had a nice turn of foot late… not ideal lead in run though to then improve significantly again with 21 days between runs?
Expected Speed: Moderate speed early and middle if Lord of the Sky leads. Stronger if Showtime pushes forward.
Most favoured horses: Lord of the Sky, Showtime, Tosen Stardom
Least favoured horses: Humidor, Wyndspelle
Strategy: Lord of the Sky 1X3 ratio
Caulfield Race 7 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes – Group 1
1. Long Leaf: Three runs to date. Done everything right and has to be considered a top chance from barrier will get right run.
2. Written By: Super win last start 3-wide the trip. Wide barrier a negative today but won’t be troubled by step up to 1200m and has to be considered a genuine winnner.
3. Run Naan: Ran times last prep that would compete here but hasn’t reproduced them so far. Blinkers go on and has to be considered as an outside chance if improves manners.
4. Prairie Fire: Get back run on type. Suited last start by Flemington. Times were sound but will need the ride of the year from the mapping.
5. Ollivander: Had issues between runs and has to pass a vet check pre-race. Will get back run on – couldn’t go with them strong early last start.
6. Encryption: Wasn’t suited last start when they didn’t go overly hard early (but still went hard enough) and was forced to run strong late sectionals to compete. Found one better that day – awkward mapping from barrier here.
7. Native Soldier: Terrible barrier. Do they push forward here? Can’t win going back? Tough ask overall.
8. Plague Stone: Maps to get 3 back the rails most likely and have every chance with the right ride. Melham right jockey to push off and win at any cost. Run last start better than looked. Key player.
9. Grand Symphony: Only run in fairly beaten on speed. Has to improve but will see out 1200m.
10. Enbihaar: Got away with a fairly easy on speed win last start. Big step up here. Others preferred for the win especially with barrier.
11. Kinky Boom: Untapped potential. Barrier a huge issue. I’d want them to hunt up and try be on speed to win here.. but taking a 3-4wide sit midfield could work also. Horse has the turn of foot required to win here.
12. Lady Horseowner: Nice type. Done everything asked of her but this is another class. Has to improve again.
13. Ennis Hill: Huge lameness issue query. Can’t back a horse that has issues in such an even group. This was my pick on lead in – maps perfectly, but lameness issues turn off.
14. Crossing the Abbey: Respectable form. Outclassed last start and hard to see the horse improving enough to beat these.
15. Qafila: Flying at home. Flying previous starts. Beat Long Leaf at home recently. Wide barrier hurts but this is a horse that should still be suited wide with cover.
16. Oohood: Get back run on type. Crazy good turn of foot, but will need luck in running to be competitive late.
17. Aristocratic Miss: Go forward type if gets a run. Went around fast early two back… last start couldn’t win in easier grade.
18. More Than Exceed: Morphetville winner. Nice enough type but big jump if gets run.
19. Roobeena: Very unlikely to get run. Never run a time or race good enough to suggest here.
20. Melveen: Not in this even if got a run.
Expected Speed: Solid first 400m. Moderate second 400m.
Most favoured horses: Written By, Ennis Hill, Plague Stone, Encryption
Least favoured horses: Prairie Fire, Ollivander, Oohood
Strategy: Back Plague Stone, Encryption, Written By and Qafila.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1100m – Ladbrokes Oakleigh Plate – Group 1
1. Flamberge: Every chance last start near peak. Found one too good. Up to 1200m and goes well here with sit. Speed may be too strong to show best?
2. Russian Revolution: Two strong lead in trials. Best runs in past off strong tempos. Has to be considered – maps on speed.
3. Sheidel: Won this race last prep first up – hasn’t won since but has run well enough with a Group 1 third on record. Will be ridden forward and no excuses if good enough.
4. Hellbent: Blinkers on. Ready to fire last start and ran strong times home as always. Will kick the horse out and give it every chance.
5. Illustrious Lad: First up today. Last prep firs tup close 2nd in Group 2. Had the ability to run well.
6. Fuhryk: Being overlooked here? Ran 2nd in a Group 1 last start behind Viddora who would be a $5-$8 favourite most likely? Goes well at track and distance. Maps for every chance.
7. Savaana Amour: Best in past still a step below these but can run well fresh and had two hitouts on lead in.
8. Snitty Kitty: Disappointing on face value first up – just went around too slowly and was run down late. Good lead in for this.
9. Prussian Vixen: Strong win last start and throw at stumps here. Couldn’t get much fitter. Not up to this grade with the win.
10. Sword of Light: Strange nomination – won at 1400m in Group company last prep.
11. Bons Away: Trialled like a star on lead in. Everyone saw it and has been backed. Beat Brave Smash over 1200m and gapped the rest.
12. Lady Esprit: Smashed the clock home last start at Caulfield 32.28. Very hard to hold out running a similar rating late here. Massive.
13. Rock ‘n’ Gold: Got the circumstances to suit winning last start. Not suited up in grade again.
14. Palazzo Pubblico: Nice type but never gone close to ratings needed to win this. Have to take on.
15. Glenall: First up. Two previous runs were nice but a step below the best needed here.
16. She Will Reign: Horrible first up run times wise. Massive improvement needed to place.
17. Catchy: Looked the real deal to my eye last prep. Best run was over 1600m so hard to know what to make here.
18. Booker: Did everything required first up to get the win. Huge improvement needed again.
19. Quilista: Solid times but never blown us away on the clock. Take on.
20. Olivier: Well outclassed here.
Expected Speed: A number of natural leaders. Speed will be fierce and on.
Most favoured horses: Snitty Kitty, Sheidel, Fuhryk, Russian Revolution
Least favoured horses: Illustrious Lad, She Will Reign
Strategy: Backing Snitty Kitty, Sheidel and Fuhryk with a saver bet on Russian Revolution.
Caulfield Race 9 – 1800m – Carlton Draught Peter Young Stakes – Group 2
1. Hartnell: Maps for an ideal run throughout from a strong barrier. Huge run last start and step up to 1800m ideal. Hoof Filler normal for horse – better than these if perfect in yard.
2. Gailo Chop: Nice type of horse with an awkward map – but could just roll along out front. Going very well and further the better as with strongly run race.
3. Jacquinopt Bay: Outclassed. Should lead and push tempo for others behind.
4. Ventura Storm: Need run today and best over further than this.
5. Lord Fandango: Strong improver here 2nd up over the 1800m. Needs even further and one more run for best.
6. Harlem: Strong run last start not suited by tempo. Proved has come back very well – can improve again and if pseeds on, will get a shot at them.
7. Spiritjim: Trialled poorly for mine. Have to take on.
8. Single Gaze: Genuinely going well right now but genuinely outclassed.
10. Abbey Marie: Get back run on type. Last start run not as good as it looked IMO. Take on from back.
Expected Speed: Moderate speed early – pace increased from 1200m to finish.
Most favoured horses: Hartnell, Gailo Chop, Harlem
Least favoured horses: Abbey Marie, Spiritjim
Strategy: Hartnell to win
