Welcome to The Profits preview for Caulfield on 23 September 2017. The Rail is out 9m for this meeting at Caulfield with 20-25km winds expected throughout the meeting – this shouldn’t have much affect on results throughout the day. There is no disadvantage with leading today with the inside certainly holding up, but on walking the track Thursday the irrigation lanes did certainly feel to have a bit of advantage on the compacting they had received, so expect swoopers to have every chance throughout the day in races where tempo is on. Looking forward to some solid results. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 – Aloisia – 4 units @ $5.50 to win. Joyfilly Ours 2.25 units @ $9.00 to win.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 – Sin to Win – 3 units @ $3.70 to win. Anaheim – 1.5 units @ $7.50 to win.
Best Each-Way
Caulfield Race 8 – Fuhryk – 2 units Each-Way @ $5.00/$2.20
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 15
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 9, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1400m – Aquis Farm Supports Pinchapoo Plate
Expected Speed: Above Average
1. I’ll Have a Bit: G3 winner in Adelaide last prep beating Booker over 1200m. First two runs this prep were average at best. Has to improve third up.
2. Pure Scot: Vobis Sires winner last prep at course over 1200m. First up run last at the 200m but finished off ok. Needs to improve.
3. Undoubtable Miss: MM 2YO winner at Morphetville last prep. First up run was good covering ground. Last start behind the leader ran well off what was a slowly run race. Looking for the speed on here and looks suited.
4. Aloisia: Flemington 2YO wuinner over 1400m last prep and finished off the prep with a G1 second at Doomben after being held up. Goes well first up and maps nicely from barrier 3. Only query is the track as did look best suited to a Flemington type of track.
5. Blondie: Strong win first up at Sandown and had every chance off a slow tempo last start but found one too good. More pressure on today but maps very well.
6. Sanadaat: Filly looking for 1600m this prep quite clearly. First up run on speed uninterrupted run and won well at Sandown before being held up for runs last start at Moonee Valley off a slow tempo and failing to finish off. Barrier a negative but it may very well push the horse to lead which is a positive.
7. Joyfilly Ours: G3 6th last start behind Formality and Champagne Cuddles. Up to 1400m where she placed last prep in G1 class over in NZ. Has ability and well placed going forward from the wide barrier.
8. Banish: Godolphin runner third up today. Not a great run last start at MV and clearly has to improve.
9. Leather’n’lace: Two starts for two wins this prep in much easier races. Going forward again today but has to improve.
10. Pageantry: Two runs this prep. First up average at best before going ok last start down the straight. Big jump in distance.
13. Uptown Gal: Two runs this prep in maidens and yet to break through. Huge step up needed.
Comments: Two clear standouts based on speed mapping and form in Aloisia and Joyfilly Ours. Very keen to bet early and back both.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Aloisia – 4 units @ $5.50. Joyfilly Ours 2.25 units @ $9.00
Caulfield Race 2 – 1600m – Sportsbet Supports Mirabel Foundation Handicap
Expected Speed: Average to Below Average
1. Eshtiraak: Strong run last start at Moonee Valley when just missed after Masculino stole the race with a perfect ride by Noonan. This doesn’t look any harder and maps very well from 3.
2. Cliff’s Edge: Stepped up last start to 1400m but didn’t handle the huge tempo set out front. Quick backup and could be flat is the big issue with 1 week backup. Maps nicely for right run.
3. Padraig: Bendigo winner when taking a long time to get going. Can improve for that run and go much better up to 1600m here.
4. Watchmespin: Strong win first up off a nice strong tempo at Caulfield from the back. Judy in Disguise form hasn’t held up since.
5. Angelic Spirit: Just got the win last start at Seymour after a rpeviously solid run when pulled up lame. Has ability. Big horse.
6. Sunquest: Not suited by the tempo last start at Moonee Valley and ran on well. Continues to run well but has a poor race pattern. Has to improve again and get luck.
7. Nistaan: Maiden winner last start. Went around a short favourite in harder three back. Win wouldn’t shock but really doesn’t look a 1600m type on grass.
8. Evil Cry: Not the worst lead in run beaten 3L in Listed ghrade at Morphetville. Awkward mapping today.
9. Il Divo: Maiden winner last start after 5 attempts. Huge step up up needed to place.
10. Give: Maiden winner last start in slowish time on synthetic from on speed. Not sure good enough here.
11. Pres de Toi: Couldn’t win maidens on lead in.
Comments: This is a really awkward race. Eshtiraak is clearly the horse with ability that we know will run up to the mark while there are questions over Cliff’s Edge and Evil Cry here and even Sunquest from out the back. Even the two NZ imports are unknowns at this level but have claims along with Nistaan. Not only confident until I see the yard.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Eshtiraak to win.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1800m – Lojac Civil Handicap
Expected Speed: Average to Above Average
2. Thunder Teddington: Won well first up at Geelong in similar grade. Best runs in the past have been over further and goes up in distance here. Has to be respected.
4. Anaheim: Ran home VERY well first up at Moonee Valley and worked into the race. 1500m up to 1800m very ideal for this stayer and 2kg claim has him in well. Maps very well midfield for a good run.
6. Domino Vitale: Well below the class needed the past two runs to win here. Yes, on best she is good enough to measure up, but i’m happy to take on.
8. Goodwill: Measured up to harder than this in the past. First up run was good at Sandown and will clearly run well.
10. Meet and Greet: Two Doomben wins then failed at Rosehill last start from on speed. Jump in class here.
11. Sin to Win: The one to watch. Looked a top class type in NZ and two runs to date very good in Australia. Maps for a dream run once again on speed.
12. Lycuyrgus: Huge run last start from out the back at MV when picked up late and was clearly fat in the yard. May need another run.
13. Clairvaux: Tough ask here up in class and will be out the back in a packed field. Not one for mine.
14. Sherlock Holmes: Didn’t come over with overly strong ratings and only run last prep which was fair wasn’t good enough to back here. One not in my corner.
15. Trendsetter: Finished off last prep with some good runs in similar company but two runs this prep were horrible. Hard to see.
17. Tuff Buckie: 3rd in the Launceston Cup behind Big Duke last prep. Ran nicely enough first up over the unsuitable 1400m trip. Probably needs further but can run well.
19. Skulduggery: BM-64 2nd last start at Geelong. Previous runs well below this. Has to improve.
20. Table of Wisdom: McEvoy runner who hasn’t won since the maiden win. CL1 last start at Geelong and couldn’t win.
Comments: Sin to Win the standout from Anaheim. Lycurgus can improve here also.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Sin to Win 3 units @ $3.70. Anaheim – 1.5 unit @ $7.50. Electric Fusion – 0.50 units @ $31.
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Fight Cancer Foundation Plate
Expected Speed: Above Average to Hot Speed
1. Bandipur: Good win two back at Morphetville and other two starts. Both wins this prep have been on softer tracks while he has fairly found one too good both starts on Good surfaces. Going well enough to be a factor.
3. Tycoon Dancer: Strong winner first up last prep but then average at best last start at Moonee Valley behind the leaders. Wants a tougher tempo today.
4. I Did It Again: Big winner last prep beating Bandipur here strongly from on speed. Wide barrier but no issues will be able to get over and get a spot on speed. Good lead in trial.
5. King’s Authority: Two runs this prep for Price yard without really looking a chance. Average at best last start.
6. Superhard: Drifter in the betting last start but got the win at Sandown when asked 250m out. Beat some 2nd raters and this is the true test.
7. Grandioso: First up wide no cover horrible and plain. May want further?
9. Lakhoni: Maiden winner at Bendigo by 0.1L. Big step up here.
11. Arctic Angel: Boxed on okay enough last start at Flemington down the straight. Was an improvement on previous runs but needs to improve again. Maps well short turn around between runs.
12. Counterplay: Two wins in Adelaide and then a good 2nd last start in easier grade. Back to dryer track the key today.
13. From the Clouds: Won two of three last prep. Heavy track trial win coming in.
Comments: Bandipur and I Did It Again are the ones to beat while Superhard for mine is taking a big step up here. At odds, Tycoon Dancer, Counterplay and Arctic Angel are the main threats.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: I Did It Again on top
Caulfield Race 5 – 1400m – Ladbrokes SUpports National Jockeys Trust Handicap
Expected Speed: Average Speed
1. He or She: First up run was backed but fairly beaten over at Morphetville. Stays at 1400m and back to dryer today which will be more suitable. 58kg after claims.
2. So Si Bon: Go back run on type. Horrible last start down the straight in G2 company and steps back in class here today with a change of gear and up to 1400m. Tough to see the horse backing up again but he is good enough.
3. Duke of Brunswick: Very disappointing run last start. Previous two runs were good. Back to 1400m ideal and hopefully the horse looks much better in the yard than when at Moonee Valley. Nearly a month between runs and maps well.
4. Here to There: Two wins in a row before a fair run last start at Moonee Valley. Maps for a sweet run once again behind the speed and can run well here.
5. Mighty Like: Three runs this prep. First two runs were decent down the Flemington straight but failed to show alot last start at MV. Up to 1400m today suitable but clearly has to improve here.
6. Revolving Door: Good return to form last start 0.9L off Brave Smash 3rd. Never actually shown enough over 1400m to suggest he is 100% a 1400m horse. Does map much better today at least.
7. War Legend: First up today and goes well first up. Concussion plates on huge negative. Hard to suggest at his distance with those on.
8. Wyndspelle: NZ G2 winner over 2000m. First up run fair over the unsuitable 1200m and step up to 1400m certainly will run better, but very best will be over 2000m+.
9. Sirconni: Wide no cover last start over 1200m and was a terrible ride to be fair. Will go forward and lead today up to 1400m and comes in off a strong trial. G2 winner last prep over 1400m for a reason.
10. Ballet Master: Will be on speed but this looks a big test today. Good runs the past three with two wins.. but has to find a length or two again.
11. Saint Valorem: Out the back run on type. Good win three back but struggled since to find a run. Held up last start the issue.
Comments: He or She can improve significantly back to a dryer deck today while So Si Bon looks to be screaming out for 1400m but it a short back up the key? Duke or Brunswick can also return to form here freshened up while Here to There is consistent as the day is long. Revolving Door maps perfectly but is it a 1400m type? Sircconi will run a big race on speed today while WYndspelle could very well just be too good for these being a G2 winner already.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Something small on He or She, Wyndspelle and Sircconi if playing
Caulfield Race 6 – 1200m – Skyline Education Foundation Testa Rossa Stakes
Expected Speed: Average Speeed
1. Keen Array: Two very solid lead in runs at Moonee Valley covering a load of extra ground compared to the field on the days. Barrier 1 means he can now get the suck run throughout and unleash a final 300m sprint. Expect Currie to kick up on the inside to try sit 3 back the peg at worst. Big chance.
2. Most Important: Terrible first up but previous runs in Queensland were more than good enough to suggest a win here including his very best 1200m G3 win by 2.8L from midfield. Only query is if the horse is fit enough as the first run was poor.
3. Brave Smash: Got the job done last start at Moonee Valley 3-wide no cover the trip and held on. Expect them to ride him more conservatively today on the lead up to The Everest to settle just like they want him to in the Everest. Should get the right runs and dry track suits.
4. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: 7YO now and hasn’t gone close in a fairly long time. Hard to suggest here.
5. Malibu Style: Wide no cover first up and ran really poor after parading poorly. Can have improved but looks to need at least another run to place here.
6. El Divino: 8 runs 0 wins on good tracks and hard to suggest here even though he ran a blinding 2nd last start. Maps nicely.
7. Well Sprung: 4-wide no cover and hit the line strongly first up suggesting he will have come on for the run. Only negative is staying at 1200m.
8. Royal Tudor: G3 5th first up behind Voodoo Lad off what was actually a nice run at odds. Looked a nice type last prep up north and has to be respected.
9. Rocket Tommy: BM-90 grade 5th last start from on speed and hasn’t come back close to the same horse this prep. Not here for me.
11. Bons Away: Three wins in a row going through the grades but this is clearly a huge jump in class. May just be good enough to measure up but not for mine.
Comments: I’m not convinced Brave Smash is the ‘moral’ everyone has it worked out to be. The times from last start at Moonee Valley actually aren’t overly impressive and they are going to try run the race differently today. Expect a stronger tempo and the horse with the best run from the top of the straight should be winning. Malibu Style and Keen Array are the main dangers while Most Important is the blowout chance.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6
Strategy: Back Keen Array E/W and have something small on Most Important.
Caulfield Race 7 – 2000m – Bendigo Bank East Malvern MRC Foundation Cup
Expected Speed: Below Average to Average to Above Average
1. Sir Issac Newton: Atrial Fibrillation last start in the Feehan when well backed to run well. 7th in the Caulfield Cup last year and is a G3 winner over 2000m previously. Grinding type.
2. Tally: Going through the grades well this prep with a 2nd and 4th heading in. Looked to be going through the line really well last start. Looks to really be wanting Flemington to my eye but expect he will be running on strongly here. Better barrier to get a spot today.
3. Big Duke: Went around last start and never a chance when no speed was on in the race. Get back run on type again today but looks much better suited up to 2000m today and should be ready to go.
4. Articus: Every chance last start at Moonee Valley over the 1600m and just couldn’t go the pace. 2 weeks between runs and better suited 2000m today with a lesser speed on. Goes very well at this distance and has to be respected from barrier 3.
5. Gallante: G1 Sydney Cup winner over 3200m in the past. Last prep first up over 2000m 2nd to Jameka in the Naturalism but failed the next two starts including in the Melb Cup. Not been seen for 320+ days but clearly focused on the Melb Cup again. Can win here.
6. Stampede: Ran them around off a slow tempo last start at Moonee Valley and it was a race suited to those out the front and those with good closing speeds like Petrology. Looked near top last start and won’t be improving a load. 1600m up to 2000m questions to be asked here.
8. Harlem: X factor horse that returned well first up not finding runs. Best runs in the past have been 2000m+.
9. Amelie’s Star: Unlucky last start when had plenty to offer but couldn’t find a way out. Obviously backing up here due to this and 2000m looks suited obviously. Barrier should mean no bad luck in run as will most likely be wide in run with cover.
10. Abbey Marie: Continues to run significantly better this prep. 2nd last start in G3 and will come on from that run and be able to measure up at this course over 2000m. Out back run on needs speed on.
11. Second Bullet: Went well first up but struggled 2nd up when looked well in the yard but found nothing. Back to a track where he goes well but this is a hard horse to trust apart from fresh.
12. Harlow Gold: Had her chances last start at Moonee Valley but couldn’t pick up Lord Durante or a few others. Needs another run for mine.
13. Vengeur Masque: Not the worst run first up but didn’t impress. Up to 2000m but really wanting further than this again.
14. Magnapal: Big win last start at MV when looked well and saved a load of ground on those behind him. Big ask again to do it here.
15. Samovare: Well backed last start and won very well covering a load of ground at Moonee Valley. Huge step up in class and while she impressed last start, this is clearly harder.
16. Settler’s Stone: Not shown me enough the first two runs this prep.
Comments: I struggle to suggest the $4.8 for Stampede is correct nor the $6 for Abbey Marie, both are horses I want to take on here at the odds. Boom Time is a horse at odds I can appreciate here while the same can be said for Gallante. Samovare can run well where and so can the 3 Weir runners as well as Sir Issac, Tally and Harlem. Wide open race.
Confidence 20%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 15
Strategy: Small bet Gallante E/W
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Odds Boost Stakes
Expected Speed: Average to Above Average
1. Prompt Response: Two lead in trials and first up here for the Waterhouse yard. Ended last prep with a G1 2nd over 1350m and won a G2 before that. 1 from 7 at this distance and 0 from 4 first up though. Maps well on speed.
2. Kenedna: Last win was over 2000m and 4th in QLD Oaks. 2 wins from 2 over this distance in the past but never won firs tup and this is a real tough ask at the distance first up off a 2000m+ prep.
3. Savaana Amour: Strong win last start at Caulfield when got held up for runs but smashed the clock home late. Looks the be the real deal and barrier no issues here.
4. Legless Veuve: First up today Blinkers off. Bar plates remain on (front) massive negative. On best she can go very well here but clearly best with plates off.
5. Fuhryk: Plain at best in the yard first up when held up but probably wasn’t winning on the day. Savanna Amour was a better run and looked great in the yard that day. Fuhryk certainly has a load of improvement and from a much better barrier today should get a better run throughout. Mertens due as well.
6. Ravi: Won well first up in G3 company on a Good 3 track and may have gone on with it this prep. Was only an average field to be honest and fairly beaten last prep by Fuhryk the issue.
7. Missrock: G2 4th last start behind Houtzen Heatherly and Russian Revolution when only boxed on. Hasn’t been training overly strongly i’m told as well. I have to jump off here.
9. Ellicazoom: First up today after her first prep in Victoria where failed to score a win beaten fairly by Savanna Amour 2nd up and then a few others over further. Best seen 1400m+.
10. I Am Zelady: Nice enough run 2nd up at Caulfield behind Savanna Amour when got the runs but others got past her late. Needs to improve.
11. Miss Cover Girl: 4-wide the trip first up and looked good in the yard. Certainly here to be competitive.
12. Now or Later: Best runs in the past have all been on tracks with sting out at Good 4 at the worst.
13. Selita: Two solid lead in runs in similar class. Nicely in at the weights and listed placed type. Has to improve but goes well.
14. Deja Blue: First up run here today. Always looked a level below these in the past but does have ability and goes well first up.
Comments: Fuhryk is well and truly the best horse in this race and meets all these runners well at the weights overall. Fuhryk maps perfectly and looks a great E/W price. Main dangers look to be Ravi, Savanna Amour and Prompt Response.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6
Strategy: Fuhryk – 2 units Each-Way @ $5.00/$2.20
Caulfield Race 9 – 1400m – Inglis Supports Riding For The Disabled Association Victoria Plate
Expected Speed: Average speed
1. Rocket Commander: Continues to run well without figuring or winning and looks to have a bit of High or Highwater about her in that she is due a win. Good Sydney form coming into this and has to be well respected at the weights.
2. Vital Importance: Last run before retirement to stud. Ran home okay first up but not super. Stays at 1400m and track.
3. Minnie Downs: Three runs thius prep with two fails and then a strong 5th last start in mares grade from off the speed at odds. Expect to run well today but barrier hurts.
4. Magnanime: Listed grade winner over in France and 5th in a G1 over 2000m. Failed next 3 starts overseas (including in America). Had one run here on heavy first up over 1400m and was very poor. Hard to suggest.
5. Baby Don’t Cry: Wagga winner last start in a nice enough race and time. Never won at 1400m from 11 starts over distance and 5 starts at track. This is a step up in class.
7. Merriest: 3-wide with cover last start but didn’t run up to the mark expected pre-race. Didn’t look too good first up for mine in the yard and can improve onwards from that. Can go well.
8. Sebring Dream: G1 6th to end last prep after placing in G3 company. Has won in the past over these distances but showed best over 1800m last prep. May need run.
9. Princess of Queens: Continues to run well without winning. Looked terrible in the yard last start so has huge improvement to come today on the last start win.
10. Chatuchak: Sydney form with a 3rd behind Mariquita in easier grade. Has to improve and be good to win this.
11. Petition: Two runs this prep (one a trial) and well beaten first up. Been to find previous prep form to be considered but even so has to be good.
13. Jamaican Rain: Two starts two wins for Laming yard. 6.7L victory last start at Morphetville and may just be a super horse on what we saw.
Comments: Jamaican Rain looks the real deal. Rocket Commander is going well enough to win this and so is Fragonard and Princess of Queens. Minnie Downs is the clear value in the race.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 9, 13
Strategy: Jamaican Rain to win
